The Wolf Den #515 - The “Mistake” We All Made
Another giveaway - this time for EVERYONE!
In celebration of the 500th Wolf Den Newsletter, my amazing sponsor Bitget decided to join in on the giveaways with a $50,000 prize pool! Simply make your first deposit of $50 to get $50 USDT from 23rd May till 10th June. No strings attached. No trades required! Literally $50 for free. Just sign up using my link. This is exclusively for my followers.
For more information on the giveaway, click HERE.
Get up to a $5,000 bonus in USDT when you sign up using my link to Bitget! Bitget is the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage, world’s largest crypto copy trading platform, and the official partner of Juventus Football Club. They are also offering a 15% discount on trading fees!
In This Issue:
The “Mistake” We All Made
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Consider A Wash Sale
The Merge Nears And Staked Capital Grows
India's Tax Nightmare
Volatility Is Good
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Michael Moro
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
A moment of silence for our portfolio tops that could have become realized gains if we had just sold everything at the perfect moment. Imagine all of the profit that we could have locked into our bank accounts had we just been a little less greedy, that thing that we want that we could have bought, that island we would be living on. Consider that elusive number that was just a few clicks away from becoming reality, the greatest missed opportunity there ever was…
STOP!
I am joking, this is utter nonsense.
The time has come to forget this fictitious, “should have, would have, could have” number. Bury it and forget about it, because it was never real in the first place. It’s a demon to be exorcised forever.
This demon tortures all of us. Everyone is haunted by some form of a financial nightmare. For those of us who have been HODLing, there’s nearly a 100% chance that this specific demon lives in your mind. It feeds off of your longing for that magical, perfect number. It thrives by reminding us that we are down 85%, 87%, 89%, and then some. The more we think about it, the more it grows.
What if I told you there is a way to kill this demon for good?
Your answer lies in the acceptance of one simple truth.
Absolutely nobody can consistently predict a top or a bottom.
Understanding this is the demon killer.
Taking that a step further, even if they can predict the top of bottom, the odds that they can perfectly trade it in the moment are slim to none.
Dwelling on the past is futile. Nothing about it can be changed. But we can learn lessons.
It is time to focus solely on the present and the future. Do everything that you can today to be successful. Dollar-cost average, rebalance, study, paper trade. In correcting the past, I do not mean attempting to sell everything at the next “cycle top,” or attempting to buy everything at the next “cycle bottom.” This is impossible. Instead, practice setting your emotions aside and questioning your biases one-by-one as they creep into your mind. Sharpen the other tools in your box.
Lastly, don’t beat yourself up. Be proud that you are here. Few people have seen this light. The rest will come.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
All streaks eventually come to an end. There will be no 10 week red streak for now.
We FINALLY saw a green week, albeit on a candle that closed very close to it's open.
Still, Bitcoin printed a green inverted hammer. Many beginning traders believe that any candle with a long wick up is bearish. This is not the case. Candle placement and context are as important as candle structure. At the bottom of a trend, this candle is considered bullish. It is a signal that bulls are willing to step in and test bears, and that sellers are unable for a period to advance price further down. The next candle acts as confirmation. We have a decent start.
DAILY CHART
There's nothing to celebrate yet. Last Monday, price had a similar move to the upside, turning many people bullish for no apparent reason. Price is still ranging sideways, under key resistance around $33,000 and above key support at $28,600. A move above or below these levels is worth discussing. Everything else is noise.
We are still very much in a bear market until we make a higher high.
Legacy Markets
Key events to watch this week:
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision Tuesday
World Bank’s “Global Economic Prospects” report Tuesday
Reserve Bank of India rate decision Wednesday
OECD Economic Outlook, a twice-yearly analysis of major global economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Wednesday
European Central Bank rate decision, Christine Lagarde briefing, Thursday
China trade, new yuan loans, money supply, aggregate financing. Thursday
US CPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday
China CPI, PPI Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9% as of 10:30 a.m. London time
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 1%
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0745
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 130.74 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.6506 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2568
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 2.96%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.29%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.20%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.2% to $119.92 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Consider A Wash Sale
"The wash sale rule is an IRS guideline that specifies when and how investors can buy and sell securities to harvest tax losses. Tax-loss harvesting means selling assets at a capital loss to offset capital gains. This strategy is commonly used to minimize investment tax liability. When you deduct capital losses, you can offset up to $3,000 in ordinary income. Losses can be carried forward to offset future income for additional tax benefits.
Specifically, the wash sale rule prevents investors from selling a stock at a loss, then repurchasing a “substantially identical” asset in the 30 days before or after the sale. So you couldn’t sell 100 shares of XYZ stock on Monday, then turn around and buy 100 shares of that same stock on Tuesday and still be able to harvest any associated tax losses. The wash sale rule covers both taxable brokerage accounts and individual retirement accounts (IRAs)."
The rule applies to stocks, bonds, options, futures, and ETFs, but not crypto (yet). For now, you can literally sell your coins, take a loss, and immediately buy them back. You cost basis is the same, but you have a sizable write off.
This is 100% legal. Typically, this is a popular topic come tax time, but it's just as valid when your investments are low. Something to consider now, when the entire market is depressed.
I recommend consulting with your financial advisor to see if this makes sense, as the laws can change and there are different view. I am not an accountant or financial advisor.
The Merge Nears And Staked Capital Grows
Some important Ethereum stats:
Nearly 400,000 unique validators
Almost 11% of the circulating supply is staked
2.4M Ethereum has been burned
12.7M Ethereum is staked
The best of the best is on Ethereum - NFTs, Lending, Stablecoins, Swapping, Wallets.
The merge is coming soon!
India's Tax Nightmare
Indian crypto enthusiasts will pay a 30% tax on their Luna 2.0 airdrop, even if they did not sell it and realize a gain. This is the same structure in the United States, but crypto is taxed the same here as other income and assets.
Further, Indian traders cannot write off losses against those gains, which is brutal.
It is clear that India's tax policy is extremely heavy handed and causing many Indians to avoid the market altogether.
Volatility Is Good
This is a great read. I will share the conclusion, but you should take the time to read the entire article.
"The bottom line: Even risk-averse investors can seek out some volatile price movements. This means that the future of crypto assets will be more persistent than many people expect, and will not require those assets to become more stable or fully satisfy a long list of practical uses. That said, when greater stability does eventually come, crypto will lose some of its luster — and future prices may disappoint some of crypto’s most ardent advocates."
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Michael Moro
How are institutions currently approaching Bitcoin? No one better to answer that question than Michael Moro (@michaelmoro), the CEO of Genesis Trading / Genesis Capital. Genesis is a global leader in institutional asset trading, lending, derivatives, custody and prime brokerage services. Michael joins us today to talk about Bitcoin’s infrastructure, the “Bitcoin to Zero” narrative (and whether or not it still exists), the trader cycle, and why he’s excited for what’s to come.
In this episode with Michael, we discussed:
The infrastructure of Bitcoin with Michael Moro, the CEO of Genesis
What is a Prime Brokerage?
Bridging Institutional Capital and Crypto
Why building trust used to be so difficult
The Bitcoin to Zero fear
Threats to Bitcoin’s momentu
Politicians: are they listening?
Institutional investments: what we’re seeing today
Market neutral trades
The trader cycle and keeping up with Crypto
Why we’re excited for what’s to come
Shorting Sheba and where to follow Michael
Thanks to VAULD for sponsoring.
My Recommended Platforms, Tools And Podcast Sponsors
Proud sponsor of The Wolf Den Newsletter. The world's biggest crypto copy trading platform, up to a $3000 bonus for signing up.
Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The most comfortable clothing on the planet, so much so that I went out of my way to ask them to be a sponsor after pushing them endlessly on my YouTube streams! Seriously, these are my favorite clothes. Whatever you are wearing right now is less comfortable than Vuori.
I have chosen Bullish as a sponsor for both my podcast and livestreams! They are an awesome exchange that incorporates all of the benefits of both centralized and decentralized exchanges. Your keys, your coins, but with a robust order book, complex orders and deep liquidity.
Vauld are sponsoring both my podcast and livestreams and have become my personal platform of choice for holding coins and earning yield. I love their rates (12.68% on Stables and 6.7% on BTC and ETH) and their buy the dip feature that automatically buys for me when price drops.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO