The Wolf Den #475 - The Luna Saga
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to show weakness in the face of dollar strength and global concerns - and of course the Bitcoin Conference in Miami. That said, there are signals that a local bottom could be near.
WEEKLY CHART
Weekly chart looks... weakly. After seemingly breaking above resistance and the 50 MA, we once again had a major fake out and a topping pattern. February saw something similar - a move up, ugly shooting star (in this case more of a doji), and then a big candle down. The good news is that that was it for the February correction - price bounced on the third candle.
It should surprise nobody that price continued to gravitate towards the 42K area.
I was watching for $45.5K to finally hold as support on lower time frames as well, but it was not to be. Further proof that charts are simply ideas.
DAILY CHART
Complete failure in the $45.5K region. It happens.
As you can see, the structure in 2022 is still higher lows, so if we do see more downside we want to see that maintained. This would require a bottom above the 37K area, the last low.
4-HOUR CHART
Bullish divergence has been building for days, with hidden bearish divergence currently the most recent div in play (red). We actually had confirmed bullish divergence before the drop just a few candles ago, but price has continued down.
This indicator has generally been reliable for me in the past, but nothing is 100%. That said, it still looks very possible that we could see it confirm and that price could be bottoming. This is what I will be watching. There's nothing to do yet.
Is Tesla Mining Bitcoin?
With the help of Tesla, Block and Blockstream are teaming up to build an impressive mining operation. The solar and battery-powered facility will be 100% environmentally friendly, using solely renewable energy. Once completed, the operation plans to be open source to maintain accountability and provide working metrics.
All of this is happening in Texas, the new utopia for renewable Bitcoin mining. Assuming all goes to plan, the three companies have also discussed adding wind power into the mix. There is more than just profit at play. Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, has made it very clear that the operation is about proving to the world what’s possible with Bitcoin and renewable energy.
This is what he had to say" "This is a step to proving our thesis that bitcoin mining can fund zero-emission power infrastructure and build economic growth for the future."
OpenSea Adds Solana NFTs
Solana based NFTs are coming to OpenSea, the world's largest NFT market place.
"Solana non-fungible token (NFT) sales have risen by more than 60% in the 24 hours coming into Monday morning Asia time after leading marketplace OpenSea added support for the network mid-last week. OpenSea is the biggest marketplace for NFT sales with nearly $24 billion worth of total sale volume. OpenSea confirmed the upcoming support for Solana NFTs late last month, sending the price for the native currency of the network, SOL, soaring 30% in the following days to a three-month high of US$143."
Goldman Expanding Into OTC ETH
In another glaring example of further institutional adoption, Goldman Sachs is reportedly planning to expand their crypto offerings. As I reported previously, Goldman recently made their first OTC Bitcoin trade, facilitated by Galaxy. The move into OTC crypto options for ETH is a logical one, considering the increase in institutional interest in the asset.
Regardless of the prices of coins and the volatility in the market, institutional interest is clearly increasing.
Trading Volume In India Collapses
Trading volumes of some Indian exchanges have gone down as much as 72%.
Indian's new legislation on crypto taxes is having a meaningful impact on the market. While the decrease in volume is in line with a broader trend across the globe, it is clear that Indians have minimal interest in paying 30% taxes on their trading. The further proposal to tax 1% on TDS is perhaps even more impactful, because it effects the market makers and big money.
“People earning less than 1,000,000 per year is affected by 30% fixed income tax on crypto. 1% TDS is affecting the market makers and liquidity providers. Both are needed for better crypto ecosystem in India,” Vishwanath tweeted."
It will be interesting to see this play out and would be a shame to see the Indian crypto community left out of the revolution.
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