The Wolf Den #472 - Don't "REKT" Yourself
Bitcoin Accumulation Continues - IntoTheBlock
In this report, we bring to you the latest in on-chain cryptocurrency analysis. We look at the blockchain directly and analyze balances, transactions, and the overall activity of market participants. This gives us a unique insight into the future of the market.
This section is written in conjunction with IntoTheBlock (ITB). ITB is an intelligence company that leverages machine learning and advanced statistics to extract intelligent signals tailored to crypto-assets. IntoTheBlock tackles one of the hardest problems in crypto: to provide investors with a view of a crypto asset that goes beyond price and volume data.
The Wolf Den research team uses IntoTheBlock to dig deeper and get the most important insights about the crypto market.
Bitcoin Accumulation Continues
Bitcoin has recovered most of its Q1 losses and has entered a heavy accumulation phase, but from retail and institutional players like Microstrategy or the Luna Foundation Guard.
Retail is buying BTC
IntoTheBlock’s BTC ownership indicators
Small wallets balance are at an all-time high- the accumulation of addresses holding less than 1 BTC has increased dramatically since the January lows
These groups of addresses holding less than 1 BTC are most likely retail buyers.
Addresses holding between 0.1- 1 BTC increased their balance by 1.4% in just 30 days.
The entire group of addresses holding less than 1 BTC have accumulated 5.51% of the circulating supply.
The retail group has been leading the accumulation phase for BTC, but whales have also iconsiderably increased their holdings recently.
Whales catching up
IntoTheBlock’s BTC ownership indicators
Whales are not staying behind - Over the past 30 days the balance held by addresses holding between 10k - 100k BTC has grown as fast as the retail group.
Coincidentally, this is also the fastest-growing group in the number of addresses, increasing by 6.33%.
84 addresses are now holding a total of 2.17m BTC.
This points to an accumulation phase kicking off after long-term players had been selling during the bull market, a pattern that has repeated several times with crypto-asset ownership
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Dearest Bitcoin.
I drew a line a couple of weeks ago, and you have made me look smart by randomly following it. Everyone knows that we cannot predict the future and that this was primarily lucky. That said, now would be a great time to make me look like a visionary with a high functioning intellect and crystal ball.
Kindly go up,
Scott
A retest of this area as support was one of the more obvious predictions ever. Now we need to see some buying interesting and a bounce. Nothing has really changed here.
The Disposition Effect
JSTOR is a digital library of academic journals, books, and primary sources.
“There is a large body of academic evidence demonstrating that individual investors are subject to the “disposition effect.” Those suffering from this phenomenon, which was initially described by Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman in their 1985 paper, “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence,” tend to sell winning investments prematurely to lock in gains and hold on to losing investments too long in the hope of breaking even.”
Read the article. It’s really interesting and explains the phenomenon that often causes traders and investors to sell way too early and hold way too long. They also discuss the effect of this on the market and how strategies can be formulated around this knowledge.
Elon Musk Joins Twitter's Board Of Directors
Barely 24 hours after announcing his Twitter stock purchase, Elon Musk has earned himself a seat on the company’s board of directors. Although the shares were technically a passive stake, we all knew that there was more to the story. Musk will serve as a Class II director until 2024, meaning he cannot own more than 14.9% of the company. This structure is designed to prevent him from initiating a hostile takeover, which would frankly be fun to watch. Even with that scenario out of the picture, it still looks like big changes are coming. Parag Agrawal, Jack Dorsey’s replacement, and other high-level executives have now acknowledged that problems need addressing. It’s quite amusing to watch them all finally open up to the many changes that we have all been begging for. Ideally, we see an “edit” button, solutions to spambots, tipping, and verification issues in the near future.
MicroStrategy Did What MicroStrategy Does
The software company now holds 129,218 bitcoins.
We are at the point now where MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin is common news - I’ll take it as a sign of market maturity. This time it was 4,167 Bitcoins for $190.5M, bringing the total amount of coins to 129,218 worth just shy of $6B. There is no rhyme or reason to the MicroStrategy strategy other than to keep on stacking when funds become available. Investors of all skill levels should take notes - it’s really that easy.
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On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.