The Wolf Den #467 - The Perfect Portfolio
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Nothing has changed on the weekly chart since I shared it yesterday, but I forgot to note the bullish MACD cross on this time frame. As you can see on the indicator at the bottom, the slower moving average (blue) is crossing up the longer moving average (gray). This is am extremely bullish signal for those that use this indicator, especially on a large time frame with MACD bottomed out. You can look in the past and see the effectiveness of bull and bear crosses on the weekly on MACD - they have been consistent in capturing up and downside after the initial move.
6-HOUR CHART
The 6-hour time frame is popular with legacy traders and one that I look to often. As discussed yesterday, bearish divergence with overbought RSI was looking likely, and confirmed on this time frame, but not on the 4-hour. I am not particularly concerned, but was expecting at least some retracement. I am not worried because hidden bullish divergence is VERY likely if we see any further downside or if RSI and price turn up here.
Altcoin Charts
MATIC/USDT
MATIC is one of my favorite projects and one of my larger investments. I started buying around 5 cents on this run.
Price is AT RESISTANCE and therefore is not a buy at the moment for a trader. I am looking for a clean break and close above both $1.69 and the 200 MA on the daily (the red line). A flip of these levels to support should send price to $2.10 as the first target. The breakout through the descending blue resistance ultimately has a target of $2.92, the top of the line.
The $600M Hack That Nobody Noticed
The Ronin bridge was exploited and over $600M worth of crypto was stolen. The more shocking part is that it happened 6 days ago. The news dropped yesterday, but the hack happened back on the 23rd. And nobody noticed. Seriously.
You can read about the mechanics of the hack, which involved compromised nodes and stolen private keys.
The hack went unnoticed until an unsuspecting Ronin user attempted to withdraw funds and the transaction failed, setting off alarms. Yes, it took a random user trying to withdraw 5K for anyone to notice that over 600M had been stolen 6 days before, even though those transactions were public.
The stolen funds remain in the hacker's wallet, but the story gets crazier.
Shortly following the exploit, the hacker initiated 50x levered shorts on Axie and Ronin tokens. He clearly believed that the coins would dump massively on the news of the hack and that he would profit further from his own exploit. Instead, nobody noticed the hack and the market ripped to the upside, liquidating his position in what might be the most epic fail in the history of crypto.
Laundering $600M in crypto has been provably hard, so the odds that the hacker is able to actually escape with the funds with the eyes of the world watching are slim. That’s why a lot of exploiters have actually returned stolen capital for a bounty and made amends with the community. It seems his plan was likely to make money on his massive leveraged shorts and to potentially return the funds, but this is conjecture.
What a story.
The New MicroStrategy Strategy
MicroStrategy is buying more Bitcoin, but this time they are borrowing against their Bitcoin to do it.
Yes, you read that right. MicroStrategy has collateralized a portion of their Bitcoin to secure a $205M loan in order to buy more Bitcoin. Is this reckless? Without a doubt. Will it turn out okay? More than likely, yes.
Silvergate Bank is well aware of MicroStrategy’s intent. Here is what the bank CEO had to say about the loan. “[MicroStrategy’s] innovative approach to treasury management is an exceptional example of how institutions can utilize their bitcoin to support and grow their business.”
Bitcoin is the ultimate collateral for a loan, because the bank can manage the custody. Try finding someone's yacht and repossessing it when they default on a loan against it
This is the future, and fits the billionaire's play book, which is to take a loan against your assets and never sell or trigger a taxable event.
This is fun to watch.
Opera Browser To Support Multiple Chains
Eight more blockchain networks are coming to the Norwegian browser company’s native wallet.
This is cool. From the article: "Opera plans to add in-browser crypto wallet support for eight more blockchains in a staggered rollout across its apps and web browsers.
Solana, Polygon, StarkEx, Ronin, Celo, Nervos DAO, IXO and Bitcoin will join Ethereum, the Norwegian company said. Crypto Ecosystem Lead Susie Batt told CoinDesk that Opera’s desktop crypto browser can now access Polygon and will “soon” plug into the rest. All are available on Opera for Android but there was no timeline on iOS."
This is the future - all Web2 technology will have Web3 integrations that are seamless for the user.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
Rewards Code: WOLF25
Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.