The Wolf Den #454 - One Man’s Frustration Is Another Man’s Opportunity
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
There are days when it is better to turn off the computer, ignore the market and head outside.
We have had quite a few of those of late! Charts have been rendered somewhat useless, as Bitcoin chops back and forth and altcoins slowly bleed. This market is terrible for the moment, so over analyzing is likely to lead you to bad decisions.
We all know the key levels by now - 53K, 45.4K, 42K, 39.6K, 33K.
There's almost nothing else to see in between. I can force altcoin, stock and Bitcoin charts at you, but my fear is that it will encourage you to make bad decisions when there's really nothing to do but walk away and wait.
Nothing has changed on the chart since yesterday.
As you can see, we are in about the same places as we were last I wrote. Chop, chop, chop.
Inflation Continues To Climb
The headlines are starting to look nearly identical from month-to-month. Last month's inflation was at 7.5%, with February's at 7.9%. This almost certainly means that March's number will be in the low to mid 8s. We keep hearing how inflation is now at the worst level since 1982, so I went back and looked at some historical levels to see what's really going on.
The last time inflation was out of hand was from 1973 to 1982. Historians will actually point to the fact that the crisis was from 1965 to 1982. They called this period "The Great Inflation." The worst portion of this period was 1978-1981, when inflation averaged anywhere from a low of 6.4% to a high of 14.7%. Believe it or not, what happened then was nearly exactly what we are seeing now, albeit an easier to manage situation with debt to GDP (topic for another day).
Under the guidance of the FED during this time, there was an excessive growth in the money supply, all while there were recessions, wage and price controls, energy shortages, and an abandonment of the global monetary system established by WWII. The world was facing multiple macro threats and money printing was the way out. Inflation ensued.
We know that the world recovered and that the economy was eventually fixed. That will happen this time as well, although it is hard to predict how much pain will ensue first.
Luckily, this time we have Bitcoin.
Over 10M Ether Staked
On the evening of March 8th, the Ethereum deposit contract reached a major milestone - over 10M Ether was officially staked. If you're wondering how much this amounts to, it was a little over $26B at the time it happened.
Although that sounds like a lot of staked coins, it actually represents less than 10% of the supply. This pales in comparison to other competing protocols like Cardano, with 73% staked, and Solana with 77%. Why? Because ETH 2.0 hasn't launched yet with more attractive yields. Once that happens, the staking yield is predicted to jump from 4-5% to upwards of 12%. After this happens, Ethereum will likely dominate in every conceivable DeFi category.
$1.15 Leaves Coinbase In 3 Transactions
Coinbase sees over $1 billion of BTC leave its address as Bitcoin steadies below $40,000.
That's a lot of Bitcoin. We always love a story where supply leaves exchanges, but it's hard to apply much meaning as far as effect on price. That said, I always find it notable how easy and cheap it is to move MASSIVE fortunes using crypto. Imagine sending 3 transactions worth over a billion dollars!
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
Rewards Code: WOLF25
Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.