The Wolf Den #446 - Bitcoin Rips
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
That was a hell of a way to close the month, and once again reminds us that it is important to wait for a candle close to judge meaning. What started the day yesterday as a doji and indecisive ended up a much more bullish small spinning top. Bulls ended up dominating the candle close, turning the body larger and green. This could be a nice signal of a potential bottom.
WEEKLY CHART
I am sharing the weekly chart to once again show the key levels. Yesterday smashed through 39.6K and 42K, key resistances that we want to see hold as support again on the weekly. The next level above is 45.5K or so, and should be the immediate target of this move.
I obviously believe that the bottom is likely in, which I have been saying since 33K or so, but nothing is certain. It certainly looks bullish now, so we need to just keep flipping key levels to support.
DAILY CHART
That daily candle was a site to behold, and one of the most bullish days in Bitcoin history. Not only did it smash through multiple levels of resistance, it also broke cleanly above the 50 MA on the daily, a line that many traders and algorithms use for entries and exits.
I have also moved the blue descending line to the right, giving us another resistance. You can see that price also broke that.
This chart looks very much like the bottom is in, with the higher recent low and massive move up. I would say that dips are for buying, especially at obvious levels that were just broke and the 50 MA, if it happens.
Altcoin Charts
Altcoins performed well on the Bitcoin move relative to USD, but are still underperforming BTC. The name of the game for many traders is to "stack sats," which means you only trade alts to beat BTC. That is not happening at the moment, while interest in BTC is dominant and people are FOMOing into BTC from their alts.
Bitcoin Dominance is at its highest point since November and looks likely to continue to rise.
If you trade alts against USD, then there are a lot of setups. Just keep in mind that simply staying in Bitcoin and doing nothing may actually earn you more dollars.
If you are trading to earn more BTC, be careful. Right now it looks like Bitcoin will continue to dominate.
DOT/USDT
This setup keeps coming back around, although it is still not valid. The descending blue line has been strong resistance on every rally. The good news is, the more it gets rejected, the lower the entry will be on the actual breakout.
I am looking for a clean break of the blue line and close above on increasing volume. Then a retest of the line would be ideal, although often doesn't happen.
Black lines are targets and areas of resistance.
In theory, this should eventually return to the highs on a breakout.
This is AT RESISTANCE AND IS NOT A BUY right now.
NEAR/USDT
This is what I am looking for on the DOT setup above. As you can see, price is currently breaking out through the descending blue line and the red 200 MA, but bullish signals assuming the candle closes above. NEAR also swept the lows at $8.08 before this move, a great signal of a potential reversal last week.
Targets are the black lines, with the blue 50 MA likely to also be strong resistance.
This looks very good here, having already retest $9.5 and the blue line as support.
Trading Gaps
I wrote this article quite a while ago for CoinTelegraph, but wanted to share it again for those of you who have not read it. We hear about CME gaps all of the time, but all gaps are not created equal. Here is a quick summary of the 4 types of gaps, but I suggest you read the entire article.
Breakaway gap — This gap is seen when price makes a strong directional move from an area of consolidation. It is particularly powerful for traders when combined with clear patterns on the chart like trading ranges and ascending and descending triangles. A breakaway gap with significant volume after the gap is a sign of a strong trend and is unlikely to be filled. A low volume move creating the space is more likely to see price returning to the area. Bottom line — breakaway gaps are less likely than other types to be filled.
Common gap — These are also known as area gaps, pattern gaps, and temporary gaps. These are the gaps that traders see most often in trading ranges and during sideways movement. They are often filled but offer very little information on what price is likely to do after this occurs. They rarely exist within a notable price pattern on the chart — they are simply areas where there was minimal trading that is likely to be filled.
Exhaustion gap — This type of gap is viewed as a signal that a trend is ending and that a new pattern or trend is likely. They occur near the end of a price pattern and signal a final attempt to hit new highs or lows. Exhaustion gaps generally occur in an area of rapid advance or decline, often on a large move straight up or down. They are normally preceded by a heavy volume spike and often foreshadow a “blow-off top” in an uptrend. These are the most likely gaps to be filled.
Measuring gap — also known as a runaway gap or continuation gap these gaps occur in the middle of a price pattern and signal a rush of buyers or sellers who share a common belief in the underlying asset’s future direction. Measuring gaps do not occur during consolidation or in an area of congestion. They occur during a rapid price incline or decline. Runaway gaps are not normally filled for a considerable period of time, if ever.
Crypto Companies Are Picking Sides
Crypto companies are considering Russian sanctions. Binance released a statement on its desire to follow Western sanctions, but stated clearly that they want to avoid banning every day users. Here is what they had to say on the matter: "We have assembled a dedicated global compliance task force, including world-renowned sanctions experts, and are taking the steps necessary to ensure we take action against those that have had sanctions levied against them while minimizing impact to innocent users." Binance has already committed a $10M donation to Ukranian relief. Crypto is a neutral technology, but it is inspiring to see humans use that tech to help their fellow citizens of the world.
This is a VERY slippery slope. If crypto exchanges unilaterally shut off services to entire countries based on the whims of governments, then all of us are at risk of losing access to our funds in the future. Self custody is still the safest option.
Vitalik Takes A Stand
More power to crypto and Ethereum!
Vitalik Buterin was born in Russia. In response to a well-known Pro-Putin Twitter account, Vitalik responded in Russian with some absolute heat. Vitalik's Tweet above reads, "go f*** yourself."
Why was Vitalik so upset? Well, the Tweet he was responding to says, "if you are now ashamed that you are Russian, don't worry, you are not Russian." It's the little things like this that speak volumes. The world is now certain that Vitalik - one of the most important ushers of the next wave of financial technology - stands for freedom.
Whale Wallets Spike
The number of addresses with hoards of more than 1,000 bitcoins has surged by 4.65% in the last day.
"The number of blockchain wallet addresses with hoards of more than 1,000 bitcoin — around $43 million — surged on Monday as Western nations stepped up sanctions on Russia's government and wealthy elite.
The figure increased by nearly 5% to a total of 2,226 on February 28, according to data tracked by analytics site Coin Metrics. It has not been that high since June 2021."
There are a number of theories as to why this may have happened, the dominant ones being obvious. Wealthy Russians and Ukrainians are looking to preserve their wealth and are buying coins, while wealthy individuals around the world, seeing what can happen seemingly overnight in other countries are buying as a hedge against future catastrophe.
This is what Bitcoin was made for.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Brett Harrison
Most big companies are bogged down by a massive workforce that is slow to move and innovate. FTX.US has broken the mold. They are one of the top U.S. crypto exchanges but have only 80 employees. Known for being nimble and lean, FTX.US is different in almost every way. In this episode, Brett Harrison, the president of FTX.US, explains how his company is waiting on the green light from regulators to roll out a number of groundbreaking products that will change the world of finance forever.
In this episode with Brett Harrison, we discussed:
What is FTX.US?
Crypto Derivatives In The U.S.
Managing A Crypto Spot ETF
Markets Should Be 24/7
What Can Be Listed?
The FTX Backstory For Brett
The FTX Marketing Strategy
Crypto Will Succeed In The U.S
FTX Working With Regulators
Earning Yield In The U.S.
What Is FTX Looking Forward To This Year?
This episode is sponsored by: 101 Management Inc
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.