The Wolf Den #439 - Shortcuts Never Work
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Go home Bitcoin, you're drunk. Charting and predicting moves at the moment is very difficult, with mixed signals and indicators failing left and right. I can't imagine trying to trade Bitcoin right now with any real level of conviction.
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly candle was looking bullish for most of the week, but now looks decidedly ugly. We still have a couple more days to see what happens, so it is too early to judge.
For now, we have a second consecutive gravestone doji or shooting star, which would be less than ideal. As you know, I have been anticipating a retest of $39,600, which is very much in play now. That does NOT mean it will hold as support, it's just a key level on the chart. I would love to see this week still close above $42,000.
DAILY CHART
Here are the levels to watch on the daily chart. If one breaks, look to the next.
Bearish divergence with RSI confirmed a couple of days ago on the daily chart. I chose not to share it at the time, because it was not overbought or confirmed on other exchanges. It also did not exist on other time frames.
Hindsight is 20/20, this is not something I was concerned about, but is seemingly worth at least showing.
4-HOUR CHART
RSI is almost oversold once again, after making the trip to overbought. I will be watching for bullish divergence to form if we do get another push down into oversold.
The FBI Is Closely Watching Crypto
A new investigative unit, named “The National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET)” has been launched by the FBI to, “conduct its own blockchain analysis and seizing of assets involved in crimes.” According to Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, “we are sending a message that cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies should not be considered a safe haven.” The new unit plans to focus on any avenue criminals can abuse such as exchanges, tumblers, and mixers. While the knee jerk reaction by the community was negative, this is not necessarily a bad thing. If the FBI focuses on egregious criminal acts, this will go a long way to clean up the space. Let's just hope they don't overreach.
Ukraine Legalizes Crypto
The Virtual Assets Bill proposed by Ukraine in October has passed a preliminary vote with flying colors. The bill grants legal status to all cryptocurrencies, establishing and defining a working regulatory framework. The bill will allow the country to start a legal market for cryptocurrencies and allow all of its citizens the right to participate in crypto. This legislation makes Ukraine one of the most crypto-friendly countries in the world. To be clear, they did not make Bitcoin legal tender.
Biden's Executive Order On Crypto Coming Next Week
The highly anticipated executive order on crypto is reportedly coming next week. Early reports indicate that the order will largely address the potential for a Central Bank Digital Currency and will task various agencies with creating a comprehensive framework for both CBDCs and crypto. For now, it seems like this is exploratory and a signal that the administration is taking the space seriously. There's minimal fear at the moment of proposed bans or overly heavy handed action.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.