The Wolf Den #424 - Gold Is Not A Golden Opportunity
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
I have long been discussing this ascending channel that Bitcoin has been traveling in for over 8 years. As you can see, we have an endless series of higher highs and lows, with confirmed alternating touches up and down. The never ending bull market, which is still intact.
Each and every time in the past that the dashed centerline line, also known as the EQ or equilibrium was breached, price traveled to the top or bottom of the channel.
After tracking and pushing this idea for a year, it is invalidated. We will clearly have a break of support of the EQ on the monthly close.
Does that mean price is going to the bottom of the channel? While possible, obviously not certain. We could likely see price trade around the EQ now, and fail to the downside just as it did to the upside.
Still, this is a disappointment as we have been watching it for so long, and the EQ was acting as such strong support for the last year.
Remember the monster bear div on the monthly chart? That has obviously played out at this point, and is an impossible signal to use on high time frames for an actionable trade or investment. Either way, people talk about it so it is worth discussing. If price can close the month above $35,037 and move up next month, we will have an equally impressive hidden bullish divergence, invalidating the bear div.
Also, monthly RSI has never hit oversold. It's currently around 51. The lowest it has ever been Is 44.
WEEKLY CHART
Bulls ideally want to see this candle stay green and push up as much as possible. For now, it is showing indecision, with large wicks both up and down. This could be a sign of bear exhaustion, but we need some follow through. It's been a long time since we have seen 2 green weekly candles in a row.
DAILY CHART
Struggling hard at $37,300. That's it, that's the analysis. You know the levels, we can't even start until we break the first one.
Not much to see.
Regulating Crypto Is A Matter Of National Security
The order is expected to come in the next few weeks, a person familiar with the plan tells Barron's.
The United States government has dramatically upped the ante in terms of posture towards crypto, and the development is unlikely to be a positive one.
The recent announcement that there would be an executive order from the Biden administration was not a huge surprise - the White House wants clarity on regulation. The surprise is the new framing of this order. While it was previously about consumer protection and securities law, the narrative has shifted to it being a matter of national security.
This is a bit of a head scratcher and seems overly aggressive. Pundits have a lot of thoughts as to why this may be the case, with the leading idea seemingly being Putin's newly announced stance on mining - that it should be regulated and pursued heavily in Russia. Of course, this news comes only days after Russia's Central Bank suggested and all out ban.
If the US is legitimately concerned about Russia becoming a crypto powerhouse and using Bitcoin to circumvent dollar hegemony, then you would think that the government here would want to make favorable laws to attract the industry to our shores. I am not sold on the fact that our government will make a rational decision.
If you are wondering the meaning for the price, I agree with Matt Hougan's take below.
Fast Food Companies Are Flirting With Crypto
McDonald's has long been a fan-favorite company amongst the crypto community as a target for memes and light-hearted commentary. But as they say, there is a little truth behind every joke. Now the community is pushing for McDonald's to accept Dogecoin as a form of payment. Even Elon Musk and Billy Markus have made their own attempts at convincing the fast-food chain to accept Doge, but to no avail. Musk Tweeted, “I will eat a happy meal on tv if McDonald's accepts Dogecoin.” McDonald's fumbled their response, but other fast food names grabbed the ball and ran with the opportunity, including Burger King and MrBeast Burger. It’s probably only a matter of time until a fast-food chain and a meme coin team up for the ultimate collaboration.
Every day feels more and more like we are living in a simulation.
SEC Denies Fidelity Bitcoin Spot ETF
Fidelity Investment now joins the ranks of SkyBridge Capital, Kryptoin, VanEck, Valkyrie, ProShare and WisdomTree as Bitcoin Spot EFT filers that were denied by the SEC. No surprises here.
I find it laughable that Fidelity, one of the most respected financial institutions in the world, is being denied the ability to launch this product, but leveraged marijuana ETFs exist. Further, the Bitcoin Futures ETF is a subpar product that is hard to understand for retail, performs worse than spot Bitcoin and is widely available.
A spot ETF would objectively be a better product for consumers.
The good news is that the time to own Bitcoin is before the approval and that opportunity is present today.
The Story Of 7 Siblings
A few days ago, I shared the story of 7 Siblings, the Maker vault holder who's negligence almost caused a market sell of 600M worth of ETH into an already dumping market.
This is the followup story of the entire saga. Worth a read.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.