The Wolf Den #404 - It's Time To Start Gem Hunting
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The "max pain" narrative has finally played out for a monthly options expiry. Deribit closed at 8 AM UTC, with others following throughout the day.
"Max pain" price is $48,000, with the most possible contracts out of the money. Price is currently ~$48,000.
Monthly options expire on the last Friday of the month - we generally see price suppression into the close and then volatility return, although people are already out celebrating NYE, so I doubt we see much action today.
YEARLY CHART
The Bitcoin yearly candle closes in about 10.5 hours. This is a good reminder to zoom out. Bitcoin has only gone up with time, and should continue to do so. Don't be stupid and trade away one of the greatest assets of all time because you lack patience and discipline.
MONTHLY CHART
The monthly candle also closes tonight, and price appears ready to successfully retest the EQ of this ascending channel once again as support. Holding this general still puts the top of the channel in play - 6 figure Bitcoin. The longer it takes, the higher the target.
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly chart still looks good, with a potential retest of the 50 MA as support after price rose above it last week. We still have higher lows and higher highs for now. Once again, we need to get above 53K on this time frame to start the bullish case.
DAILY CHART
The 200 MA remains the story on the daily chart. Price has been trading around it now for weeks. The 50 MA is above and heading down, so resistance ahead assuming the 200 holds.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin is JUST RANGING AND CHOPPING SIDEWAYS.
Altcoin Charts
ELON/USDT
I will once again remind you that this is a MEME COIN WITH NO UTILITY OR REAL VALUE. This is simply a trade that I have been sharing. That said, ELON was recently listed on Gemini, with other exchange rumors in the mix.
From a technical perspective we have the clean breakout through blue resistance, now a flip of the 50 MA to support and a flip of horizontal resistance to support at 1351.
The chart looks good, but proceed with caution.
ETH/BTC
I want to share this weekly chart again, and remind you that ETH looks set to outperform Bitcoin once again in the new year. As you can see, price broke the descending black line ages ago and has formed a bull pennant below resistance. It now appears price is coming back for a retest of the pennant as support, which should send price much higher. This is consolidation below resistance, which generally leads to a breakout.
Eyes will be on ETH and other Layer 1s still in the coming year.
This chart still looks incredibly bullish, even after the predictable rejection at horizontal resistance.
Follow The Crowd... On This One Thing
Coin forks are initially exciting, but history shows that it is rarely profitable to be a long-term holder of a “new and improved coin.” The 3 most significant forks in crypto, BCH, BSV, and ETC had strong followings at the time of the split, but are pretty much ghost towns today. Unfortunately, holding any of these coins has been nothing short of disastrous for investors.
For comparison, Bitcoin is down roughly 29.5% from its all-time high.
Ethereum is down roughly 22.3% from its all-time high.
Let’s look at the popular forks:
Bitcoin Cash is down roughly 88%
Bitcoin SV is down roughly 72%
Ethereum Classic is down roughly 75%
These are just the popular ones, but did you know that there are over 100 Bitcoin forks and 8 total Ethereum forks? Almost all of them are irrelevant. There hasn’t been a popular hard fork in a while, but the possibility is still there - Ethereum’s POS merge is an upcoming candidate. The lesson here is that if you want to make or preserve money, history has shown us it’s best to stick with the crowd. Hard forks are not the time to be contrarian.
Michael Saylor Buys More Bitcoin
In the good times, bad times and uncertain times, Michael Saylor has continued to buy Bitcoin. This time, the company added 1,914 coins at an average price of about $49,200, for a total cost of $94M in cash. This bumps the companies holdings up to a total of 124,391 Bitcoins for an average purchase price of about $30,500, purchased for about $3.8B.
The total investment is now worth about $5.9B, meaning he has 1.5x’d his value. There is nothing sexy about Saylor’s strategy, but it is the perfect definition of leaning in and showing conviction. I say this every time, but if crypto succeeds, Michael Saylor will go down as the greatest investor of the decade... period.
Top 10 Crypto Events Of 2021
2021 was a banner year for crypto, with growth across the board in areas that we barely even knew existed in 2020. Here is my quick recap of the year that was. Enjoy!
OpenSea Trading Volume Up 646x in 2021
It was a big year for NFTs, and no platform benefited more than OpenSea. The marketplace handled over 14B worth of transactions in the past year, up 646x from 2020. The crazy part? This trend is just starting.
NFTs are here to stay.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.