The Wolf Den #377 - Biden Nominates Powell To Serve Second Term
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Mixed signals from Bitcoin at the moment, but I do believe that we are close to finding a bottom. That said, my bias is still a bit more downside first. Price is showing potential bullish divergence with RSI on the daily and 12 hours charts, arguably confirmed bullish divergence on the 6 hour, and is close to dropping low enough to put a bull div in play on the 4 hour. Let's go through each time frame.
DAILY CHART
The daily broke support, invalidating the bullish SFP from a few days ago. Today's candle is bouncing all over the place, so it will be interesting to see how it closes. For now, it looks like a failed retest at resistance, but there's a lot of day left.
We have potential bullish divergence with RSI on the daily, albeit not clear at the moment. An hour ago it was looking more likely, which is why we wait for confirmation. We need to see a very clear elbow up on RSI.
RSI still has not made it to oversold on the daily, which is worth considering. Another drop could get us closer.
Bollinger Bands have swung bearish, with price pushing against the lower band as it expands downward. Not ideal, but can reverse any time. We want to see price at least rise to the centerline to test a flip to support.
12-HOUR CHART
This looks similar to the daily. Just an hour ago, it looked likely to confirm, but now has flipped to unlikely. This candle closes in about 25 minutes, so price will need to make a move up and give a clear elbow on RSI. If it fails, we will watch the next period close.
6-HOUR CHART
This looks like a confirmed bullish divergence, which leads me to believe we are close to bottoming. An argument could be made that the elbow on RSI is not strong enough, so this could honestly go either way. This could be the first signal, and the divergence could build further even with price dropping. In context of the other time frames, that is what I am watching for.
4-HOUR CHART
Price has not come low enough yet to confirm a bull div on my favorite time frame. It's close, so I am watching for this to still happen, then start confirming on higher time frames. This is JUST AN IDEA and what I want to see happen - it certainly may not.
The blue descending line is a key resistance to signal a real reversal. For now, we have a sweep of the lows at $55,640, which could be considered a local bullish SFP.
I would not touch this, personally. The current candle is bananas - clearly whales are liquidating high leverage traders in both directions.
Altcoin Charts
BNB/BTC
BNB is looking strong on the BTC pair, with a break of the descending blue line and multiple retests as support. Price also broke above the EQ of the blue trading range (the center line) and retested it twice as support on recent wicks. To add to all of that, we now have price potentially breaking the local blue descending line.
Simply, this should send price to the top of the blue trading range with time, .012359.
It looks bullish already regardless, but a break of the local blue line is added confirmation.
Ethereum Exchange Reserves Hit Yearly Lows
Ethereum is receiving flak from the community, but bullish indicators are still at an all-time high. Data from Glassnode shows that since 2020, Ethereum on centralized exchanges has continued to plummet toward new lows. It’s typically known that coins leaving exchanges means investors are either interacting with the asset or putting it into cold storage, two activities that are bullish. Right now, about 12% of the total supply is sitting on exchanges. The last time exchange reserves were this low was at the end of the bull run in 2018. Exchange balances tend to decrease in bull markets and increase in bear markets, hence the current low numbers matching historically low levels. When sentiment is low, zoom out and look at the bigger picture. The Ethereum bull run is still very much intact.
Here's what I had to say about the recent FUD surrounding ETH.
ConstitutionDAO Takes A Tough Loss
There are 13 surviving copies of the original print of the U.S. Constitution...
Last week, a DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) attempted to purchase one of the 13 surviving copies of the U.S. Constitution. The drive and interest were there - they raised roughly 40M dollars in 72 hours. Unfortunately, the group was outbid by evil cartoon villain Kenneth Griffin, the CEO of hedge fund Citadel. This is a glimpse into what like-minded individuals can accomplish with this technology. DAOs will form for pursuits that we can’t even currently fathom. It won’t be long until dedicated groups like this one start accomplishing amazing feats.
That said DAOs are still organizations full of people. And when the DAO fails to accomplish it's goal, things can go wrong. Read below, although this is wildly exaggerated.
Citi Hiring 100 Crypto Staffers
100 new employees! Large institutions are going all in on crypto, and can't hire help fast enough.
“We are focused on assessing the needs of our clients in the digital asset space,” said Citi in an emailed statement. “Prior to offering any products and services, we are studying these markets, as well as the evolving regulatory landscape and associated risks in order to meet our own regulatory frameworks and supervisory expectations.”
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Aya Kantorovich
No single phrase in crypto is as exciting as “institutional adoption” for eager investors anticipating the “opening of the flood gates” of big money. Aya Kantorovich is the Head of Institutional Coverage for FalconX, the perfect guest to help us unpack this complicated idea that is both misunderstood and highly anticipated. Aya believes institutions are already in crypto in a big way, but it might not be exactly what you expect! Tune in to find out more.
Who Is Aya And FalconX?
“Institutional Adoption” Is A Broad Term
How Far Along Are We?
Sub Optimal Products And High Interest
Is Clarity A Barrier?
Is The Infrastructure Bill A Threat?
What Narrative Should We All Adopt?
Is Another Catalyst Coming?
Market Opportunities Aren’t Forever
Down The Metaverse Rabbit Hole
When Does Crypto Become Mainstream?
This episode is sponsored by: AMBERGROUP and HEDERA FOUNDATION
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