The Wolf Den #372 - Is 98K In Play?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly candle was once again looking ugly going into Sunday, but late game heroics changed the outlook. Bitcoin had its highest weekly close ever and the first weekly close above the May highs. Now that level should officially become support on higher time frames, rather than a key resistance that price was unable to crack. This also invalidates the bearish SFP from a few weeks ago, because price has now closed above that line. Beautiful.
DAILY CHART
Price bounced off of the centerline of the Bollinger Bands, once again making this indicator look like a crystal ball. The bands are now expanding upward, with price trading in the top half, meaning we should see price follow the upper band to the sky.
4-HOUR CHART
Bitcoin has once again formed a local inverse head and shoulders, which was confirmed a few candles ago on the break and near retest of the neckline as support. Target is shown based on the depth of the pattern, right below the recent all time high.
Altcoin Charts
ADA/BTC
ADA, once again, has potential bullish divergence on the daily chart at the last meaningful support. To confirm, we need to see a clear elbow up on RSI to close the day.
A break of 3092 would likely lead to much lower price, so Cardano bulls are likely to continue to make a stand.
The last bullish divergence was followed by hidden bearish divergence, invalidating the idea. That hidden bearish divergence would now be invalidated by a fresh bull div, which should send price up.
Wait for confirmation.
RUNE/USDT
RUNE is in an interesting spot, currently holding the key support at $12.47. On the flip side, this looks like a potential head and shoulders, but that's not of concern unless the ascending blue line breaks down, meaning that this has good risk reward with an exit after a candle close below that level. For now. I am looking for price to continue up to the recent highs with time.
VET/USDT
Just an update to a recent idea, showing that VET has once agin tested support and looks to be heading up.
Legacy Markets
XAU (GOLD)
Metals are looking bullish, even in the face of recent dollar strength. As you can see, Gold has broken key resistance on the weekly chart that started in July of 2020 at the all time high. This should send price back to $2075, but could take quite a bit of time to happen.
Inflation is real!
Taproot Is Live!
Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade was successfully implemented on Sunday, a massive and long awaited improvement to the network. Price did not react - at all. It was as if nothing happened. The community was split on the implications of the upgrade for price - many believed that there would be a huge price spike, while other saw it as a “sell the news” event. Instead, most were left surprised by the lack of reaction in price.
Like any major upgrade, the actual effects on the network will be seen in the long term, benefiting investors with a long time horizon, not speculators looking to make a quick buck. The Halving has never been "priced in." Rather, it has taken months for the effects of the supply reduction to play out, always leading to major price increases with time.
Taproot is a huge deal, adding much needed functionality and privacy to the network. This will take time to reflect in price.
Ethereum Is Mirroring Bitcoin
One of my favorite macro Ethereum price trackers/predictors is still very much in play. Ethereum is closely following Bitcoin’s historical price path, but on a 4-year delay. Bitcoin broke $1,000 at the end of the 2013 bull run. 4 years later, Ethereum broke $1,000 in identical fashion. The pattern hasn’t just obeyed price highs, but has also respected the lulls of the bear market and ascent of our current bull market. History is not guaranteed to repeat, especially in a nascent market. But it can rhyme, which puts 20K Ethereum in play.
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