The Wolf Den #371 - Complacency Kills
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
I am already seeing chatter about a fresh bear market and that Bitcoin has topped. Anything is possible, but I always find is amusing when price action that is effectively sideways chop starts to panic the market.
For me, very little is happening here. The weekly candle is currently suboptimal, but we have a few days left and it is too early to judge. As of now, we have another shooting star and bearish SFP. We saw this three candles ago, and it turned out to be a big nothing burger. That said, this could act as further confirmation that the market is not yet ready to continue the rise.
As I have said for a few days now, my analysis and instinct said we would see some consolidation and a drop to test lower levels.
Small corrections and retest of resistance as support are healthy. Sometimes you need to go down a bit to go up. I am not seeing anything alarming.
DAILY CHART
As discussed, price expanded upward and rose above the top of the upper Bollinger Band resistance. This usually leads to price returning to the bands before pushing up along the top of the resistance, but nothing is for certain. The centerline and bottom band should offer support if price continues to drop, so I don't see us going much deeper than 57-59K, which would be a very health reset of both price and leverage.
The bear div is still valid. Bitcoin has not yet printed a hidden bullish or bullish divergence to invalidate it. Another meaningful price drop would likely give us this.
4-HOUR CHART
RSI on the 4-hour has made the trip to overbought a few times without returning to oversold. Ideally, I would like to see another price drop, bringing RSI to oversold for the first time in 2 months, print a bullish divergence and head up. That would be a strong move for a renewed bull run.
Miami Wants To Give Out Bitcoin
After the successful launch of MiamiCoin, the mayor announced that he wants to give Bitcoin to the community from the city's gains. So far, the project has amassed $21M, which if annualized, would equate to 1/5th of the city’s annual tax revenue! This would make Miami the first city in the country to successfully offer yield to its citizens. As of now, the plan is for the Bitcoin yield to come from a city-designed staking plan that considers other requirements like voting, residency, and tax-paying status. Assuming Miami continues to succeed, other cities will likely soon begin to follow - New York has already been announced.
Taproot Is This Saturday!
The long-awaited Taproot update is finally here and is expected to arrive this Saturday. The inner workings of the upgrade are complicated, but what you need to know is that the upgrade brings both increased privacy and programmability to the asset. Taproot will allow more scriptability for smart contracts and also bring down the costs of transactions while increasing network speed. Bitcoin users likely will not notice a change. Everything will appear the same except for maybe faster transaction speed.
There is no doubt that Bitcoin’s recent price rise is in part due to excitement over Taproot. When it comes to fundamental upgrades in crypto, the “buy the rumor sell the news” strategy usually doesn’t play out, because price tends to increase when upgrades are successful.
Universal Music Announces NFT Band
This is cool. Universal, one of the biggest labels and music companies on the planet has announced their first NFT band, consisting of all digital members based on Mutant Ape and Bored Ape characters.
"Bored Ape and Mutant owners will have early access to the group’s NFT releases and experiences, as well as input on the group’s narrative selection. “Just as we would with any artist or creator, my team and I will work with Kingship to sharpen their vision and develop their unique sound,” said Celine Joshua, founder of the label 10:22PM. Each member of the group has their own story and personality that influences and contributes to Kingships’s overall narrative. 10:22PM will create backstories for the apes and eventually sell NFT performances, that will provide buyers with unique musical experiences. This will also include concerts in the metaverse."
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