The Wolf Den #362 - The Dog Meme Madness Continues
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
"Uptober" did not disappoint, closing as the best month of the year for Bitcoin. As you can see, the EQ of the ascending channel was retested 6 candles in a row as support, and now it is likely an afterthought on the trip to the top of the channel.
When in doubt, ZOOM OUT. The top of the channel is 6 figures, and technically we should anticipate a trip to that area. It makes no difference how long it takes.
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly chart is showing quite a bit of indecision. Two weeks ago we had an ugly shooting star with a bearish SFP above the all time high. This was followed by a spinning top, the ultimate candle of indecision, with a long wick up and down and price closing right in the middle with a small body. Hard to determine what is next from this candle structure, but it is encouraging that the candle closed "green" and did not really confirm the bearish shooting star. I think at this point we want to see a close above the all time high again.
DAILY CHART
The last 3 daily candles (today not closed) have wicks to the downside, indicating quite a bit of demand on every slight push down. As you can see, price has held the centerline of the Bollinger Bands as support for the moment, which is bullish. The bands are tightening once again, indicating that we may consolidate here for a bit before we see another explosive move, signaled by the bands expanding. I don't see anything overtly bearish on the daily chart.
Altcoin Charts
Things are heating up once again in the crypto market, with an incredible close to October across the board and new highs for total market cap.
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP
Charting market cap, Bitcoin Dominance and other metrics that are not traded is a bit of a meme. Since there are no orders, there also is no support and resistance in the conventional sense. That said, many chartists believe that all things in the world move in patterns and that it is still worth taking a look.
Regardless, total crypto market cap broke the all time high two weeks ago and remained above this week. We have a clear cup and handle, which would indicate that we should see an even greater increase in the coming weeks and months. Things look like they are just getting started for the market.
HNT/USDT
I have been sharing this setup over and over again. It has broken the previous all time high and come down nearly for a retest as support. It is possible that it never makes it back and has been front run, but it's still likely worth watching and bidding the $26.73 area. This is now officially in price discovery, which means blue skies ahead and buy the dips.
RUNE/BTC
RUNE is working on a breakout through 2478, which is in confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move down from the all time high. I have drawn Fibs to use as support and resistance. This is simple - a break above 2478 and flip to support should target the highs.
RUNE/USDT
I have shared quite a few ideas on this pair, which looks to be breaking through the last key level of resistance before a retest of the all time high. Very simple. Closing above $14.78 and holding it as support should lead to a 50% or so move to $21.28. Flipping $21.28 send this into price discovery.
TLM/USDT
Simple. Alien Worlds has broken out of the blue descending line and retested as support, and now has broken horizontal resistance at .238 and is currently in the process of testing it as support. A successful retest here should send price to .4145.
Find An Accountability Partner
Just like a workout partner, a financial accountability partner is there to encourage you to buy the prices that aren’t sexy and sell when prices are rocketing up. Their job is to keep you on your trading plan when your emotions begin to get the best of you. Finding someone of equal or better skill level and a similar mindset is an ideal partner. They can keep you accountable for buying the dip and prevent you from fomoing into trades. The next time you are on the edge of buying a beaten-down coin or stock and you need someone to give you encouragement, looking to a friend in the same boat as you can make the difference between long-term profit and loss. Even the best traders feel discouraged at times. I probably wouldn’t have accumulated as much crypto in the bear market if it wasn’t for a good friend that bought s well. There can even be healthy competition with a partner. Watching my friend fearlessly buy dips at scary lows has, without fail, encouraged me to do the same. Investing and trading is a life-long game. Don’t do it alone, do it with a teammate.
Bitcoin White Paper Anniversary
October 31st marked the 13th anniversary of Bitcoin’s white paper. It is amazing to think that, in a little over a decade, Bitcoin has grown from having a $0 market cap to having a $1T market cap. I found an interesting list of random facts about the white paper that you may not be aware of. Below are 3 of my favorites.
“Satoshi wrote the entire code before unveiling his white paper.” This should be a standard for the industry.
“The white paper never mentions the term mining or its derivatives. Satoshi referred to the process as generating.” The white paper also doesn’t mention the word Sats, which is steadily becoming more popular.
“The Bitcoin white paper has been translated into 36 languages, including Norwegian, Portuguese, and Slovenian.” No other cryptocurrency has the reach of Bitcoin. It’s not even close.
Bitcoin Supply On Exchanges At Three-Year Low
The amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges is the lowest that it has been since the end of 2018. This is even more impressive when you consider the fact that there are far more exchanges and investors now than there were three years ago. A simple understanding of supply and demand would indicate that equal or increasing demand with reduced supply should push the price up.
People are not selling their Bitcoin.
Ethereum Has Its First Deflationary Week
Ethereum hits a whole deflationary week, first in coin's history
"For the first time since the introduction of the fee-burning mechanism, Ethereum has reached its first whole week of negative issuance in the history of the coin. The main reason for such statistics is elevated network load and increased fees.
Net issuance this week has reached -59 ETH, which equals -$250,700 in USD equivalent. Tips for miners this week have stayed at $56 million, and the burned amount almost reached $400 million in one week only.
The total number of burned Ethereum coins equals 712,000 ETH, which is currently worth a little bit over $3 billion. With the Ethereum burn rate constantly increasing, the coin will most likely show more negative weeks or even months as time goes by.
The negative issuance will most likely make the coin a deflationary asset, which might attract more investors during accelerated inflation periods."
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.