The Wolf Den #361 - Could Have, Should Have, Would Have
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Price continues to trade "sideways" around the 61K area, but not without some fireworks. Yesterday we saw one of the most aggressive flash crashes I can recall, sending price down to almost 56K on Bitstamp in a matter of minutes, only to see price bounce right back. Other exchanges did not go as deep, so it's likely this was trigger on Bitstamp. Traders in the know seem to believe that this was a fat finger order, an epic mistake by a whale who likely put one too many zeros before hitting the sell button. If it was not that, then it was a n00b with a lot of coins who has no understanding of how to efficiently sell a large position.
Crazy, but someone lost a lot of money!
Price recovered quickly and, as you can see, is holding the centerline of the tightening Bollinger Bands as support. With the bands tightening like this, I somewhat expect to continue sideways before we see an expansion and more volatility. There is very little to see on the charts at the moment. That could be very good for altcoins.
Altcoin Charts
ETH/USD
Ethereum briefly made an all time high and broke $4,400, before dropping below and consolidating. If you zoom in, you can see that price is consolidating hard right below the previous all time high resistance, usually a recipe for an explosive move to the upside. Either way, a daily close above the previous high would signal price discovery and that Ethereum is ready to push hard. A close below could be a bearish SFP, with eager sellers jumping at the opportunity to sell at the all time high. A close above should signal fireworks, but that's not always the case. Either way, ETH looks bullish.
MANA/USDT
MANA absolutely mooned already after the Facebook news, as did most metaverse based coins. That said, we have a very clear ascending channel, a major spike in volume, a potential break above horizontal resistance and a potential break above the EQ of the channel. Extremely bullish all around. The target now, assuming a close above the black line and dashed EQ, is the top of the channel and likely the all time high. This is a bit risky, it already pumped. So I would look to buy a dip at this point, not just buy the current price.
XAVA/USDT
Avalaunch just made a new all time high at $5.5, setting off my alarms from a previous live stream. Price is currently trading slightly below, so we want to be sure that the breakout is a real and not a bearish SFP or fake out. That requires a close above the line. If we see that, then the safest entry is a retest of the all time high resistance as support. If we consider this an ascending triangle, then we measure the depth of the pattern from the lows to the top resistance and extrapolate it to find a target, right around $9.09. More importantly, this would be price discovery, which is something we always look for.
Will Facebook Own The Metaverse?
Facebook announced their rebrand to Meta. As defined by the Oxford dictionary, Meta means, “referring to itself or to the conventions of its genre; self-referential.” I don’t find this definition to be particularly accurate for what's to come. I think of meta as a prefix meaning “beyond.” If physics is about the study of matter, motion, and an object’s behavior, then metaphysics is the exploration of being, existence, identity, and cause. Another example is metadata, which refers to data about data. Metacognition is thinking about thinking. You get the point. Meta is abstract, it’s the concept of beyond.
Mark Zuckerburg commented on the announcement: “We are a company that builds technology to connect. Together, we can finally put people at the center of our technology. And together, we can unlock a massively bigger creator economy. But over time, I hope we are seen as a metaverse company.” The concept is ambitious, but nobody really knows where Zuckerberg will go with the idea. What we do know is that the rebranding is focused on virtual reality and the mission is the creation of a virtual meta-world or meta-reality. December 1st marks the ticker changing from FB to MVRS. This will be an interesting transition to watch in real-time. I think the potential is there for this to be something really special and to help lead the charge for superior decentralized options.
Ethereum’s Altair Upgrade Was A Success
Ethereum’s Altair upgrade flew quietly under the radar, but its significance cannot be understated. Aside from Ethereum's price pumping with the successful implementation, Altair marks the first upgrade to Ethereum’s beacon chain - the blockchain that will introduce Ethereum 2.0. Without getting into too many details about Altair, its success tells us that the transition to proof of stake is possible. Furthermore, it adds to the decentralization of Ethereum and incentivizes activity amongst validators. Ethereum 2.0 will be the largest upgrade in crypto history. For now, we are expecting the transition in the middle of 2022.
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