The Wolf Den #357 - Lucky Vs. Fortunate
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Bitcoin made a new all time high last week, but it was short lived. As is to be expected, there was a ton of selling and liquidity to be found above the previous highs. No surprises here.
The weekly candle close as an ugly shooting star. As I often mention, candles require confirmation, so there's little concern for now or real actionable information. From investopedia:
"One candle isn't all that significant in a major uptrend. Prices are always gyrating, so the sellers taking control for part of one period—like in a shooting star—may not end up being significant at all.
This is why confirmation is required. Selling must occur after the shooting star, although even with confirmation there is no guarantee the price will continue to fall, or how far. After a brief decline, the price could keep advancing in alignment with the longer-term uptrend."
We also have a bearish SFP on the weekly, which is a wick above the previous swing high (all time high in this case) and a close below. That will bear (no pun intended) watching, but again, is to be expected in an area of such obvious liquidity and selling interest.
DAILY CHART
The Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract again, and the top resistance has flattened out. This is an indication that the current move has stalled and that consolidation is likely. Price is still trading in the upper half of the bands and looking fine, it is just likely that the buying is exhausted temporarily. We will look for the bands to begin expanding again for a sign of incoming volatility.
The daily looks fine, this is all par for the course.
4-HOUR CHART
The drawing above is NOT what I think will happen, but we are likely going to start hearing a lot about a head and shoulders in the coming days. I wanted to get ahead of it and show you the idea. As you can see, we have a clear left shoulder and head, both with the proper spikes in volume. There is NO HEAD AND SHOULDERS unless the red line is broken on a significant spike in volume. If that happens, we will be looking at a modest drop with a target around 51K.
This is the local bearish case, but not remotely a concern for the moment.
You can also see that $62,944 is a key resistance level. Price has once again flipped the 50 MA back to support here, which is generally a bullish signal.
Altcoin Charts
I did a scan of quite a few altcoin charts and did not see very much of interest at all. Bitcoin is still having an outweighed effect, sending them all down slightly even on the smallest move to the upside. I still view the market at the moment as more risky than usual on alts.
WOO/USDT
This is an earlier trade that just hit it's first target a couple of days ago, right at the all time high. It was clearly rejected there, so buying below that line ($1.39) is unwise. What we are watching for now is a flip of $1.39 to support and a move into price discovery. Watch for that to happen - it would be the signal to consider a fresh trade on this pair.
Technical Analysis Vs. Fundamental Analysis
Much of what I do in this newsletter can be categorized as either technical or fundamental analysis. These two spheres of thought are behind every decision I make as an investor.
I am aware that it probably seems obvious how these two approaches differ, but that didn't stop me from breaking them down to their most fundamental aspects and discussing ways in which they are similar. Whether you are a beginning practitioner of both methods or a master of one, I highly recommend reading this blog if your goal is to increase your returns in this market.
Satoshi Nakamoto Will Be The World's Richest Man
At some point in the future, the richest man on the planet won’t be the CEO of Amazon or Tesla. It will be the pseudonymous creator of a digital currency. The exact number of Bitcoins owned by Satoshi is unknown, but it is estimated to be roughly between 750,000 to 1 million coins. The general consensus is around 1 million coins, which would mean Satoshi’s net worth is currently somewhere around 60 billion dollars. This already places him in the top 20 richest people on the planet. If Bitcoin rises by another 5X, Satoshi would be the wealthiest person in the world.
Big News For Elrond Holders
Elrond fans have been anticipating the release of the Maiar DEX for months. EGLD shot up 5% immediately upon the announcement and has continued to climb since then. Assuming the market retains its bullish momentum, I expect this asset to continue performing well leading up to the launch.
EGLD holders will receive an airdrop to accompany the exchange debut. According to the exchange teaser page, “The MEX snapshot cycles are complete. Distribution will begin at the launch of the Maiar Exchange.” Eligible EGLD holders will receive their MEX token airdrop on the day of the release. The specific date of the exchange launch hasn’t been revealed, but some have speculated that the full moon emoji in the tweet is a hint to the launch being on the next full moon, which is November 19th.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.