The Wolf Den #356 - Is Alt Season Here?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
It is only Friday, so early to tell. What was looking like an extremely bullish weekly candle now looks like a potential shooting star (would have to close lower) with a bearish SFP through resistance.
No fear, there are a few days left and we would need confirmation of any bearish close with another week of price action. Not a big deal, but worth watching this close closely. We ideally want to see a close above the previous all time high.
DAILY CHART
Yesterday was rough - we had the crazy wicks down on multiple exchanges which clearly spooked the market, leading to more selling through the day. Price closed the day below both the previous all time high and the previous highest daily close (purple). We want to see price rally back above those levels, which looks likely.
We have potential hidden bullish divergence on the daily, which has already confirmed on lower time frames. These are all over the charts, which are a signal of continuation of the trend to the upside. Let's see if the daily can close with the div.
4-HOUR CHART
Bitcoin retested the range highs, an entry we were watching for. It went a bit deeper so far, and almost tested the 50 MA on the 4-hour chart as well. This could have been a flush and a decent entry back at the recent local highs.
Altcoin Charts
Altcoins are looking great after Bitcoin topped locally. Dominance is dropping and ALT/BTC pairs are finally seeing relief. It is hard to know whether this is temporary or a new trend, but trade what is front of you. Layer 1 coins are all moving again, much like they did a few months ago - SOL, AVAX, EGLD etc. Check them out. Also revisit previous setups, a lot of them are hitting their targets or starting to move.
AVAX/USDT
AVAX is working on a breakout from consolidation, meaning a retest of the all time high at $79.80 should be imminent. We want a candle close above blue and above the previous all time high at $60.30. Looking really good here.
SOL/BTC
My Solana alarms were blaring over night. As you know from the past few live streams, we have been tracking this descending wedge for an imminent breakout of the upper resistance. Now that we have that, the target is around the top of the wedge at .00467. We need confirmation with a candle close above the blue line, so a retest of that or the horizontal support would be ideal.
The USDT pair also look like a test of the previous all time high is imminent.
Legacy Markets
TSLA (TESLA)
Congrats to everyone who has been in the Tesla trade - it has reached the previous all time high and the first target.
The next opportunity would be a break of the all time high and a move into price discovery. Then the sky is, once again, the limit.
BinanceUS Sees Epic Flash Crash
Early yesterday morning, Bitcoin dropped from $65,000 to $8,200 on BinanceUS, then immediately returned to the correct price, all in a single one minute candle. The cause of the drop is unknown. Tt could be a bug, a fat finger order, or just a massive sell order against thin books. We saw similar flash crashes on a number of exchanges, but only into the high 50Ks - this happened on FTX and Kraken for sure.
Flash crashes have serious implications for leveraged positions, stop losses and open "stink bids," but I am yet to see anyone come forward who was affected by the price action, either positively or negatively. It’s very possible that price did “crash,” but the book didn't pick up any orders in the short time frame, which turns the whole event into a non-issue. Typically, when these crashes happen, you will be hard-pressed to find someone who scooped bids low or that lost their entire position.
ETF #2 Launches Today
There is a long list of Bitcoin futures ETFs ready to debut, and Valkyrie’s is taking center stage today. ProShares's BITO blew all expectations out of the water, with record high daily inflows and volume. It will be interesting to see how BTF will perform now that two options are available. The success of BTF could lead to a quick ride up to 70K. Fingers crossed.
Walmart Is Loading Up On Bitcoin ATMs
Probably nothing.
Coinstar, the company behind the popular green coin counting machines in Walmarts across the country, has partnered with CoinMe, a crypto ATM company. The partnership will allow all Walmart Coinstar machines to offer Bitcoin. There are 200 kiosks across the country. This is great for adoption and awareness, and is one of the biggest pieces of news that we have seen. That said, these machines charge high fees and give you a paper wallet. The paper wallet is only redeemable after signing up for CoinMe online and being verified through KYC, so it is definitely not the cheapest or most convenient way to buy Bitcoin.
BEP-95 - Binance Wants In On The Burn
EIP-1559 has been wildly popular and bullish for Ethereum, burning Ether with every transaction. So why not copy it? Binance is doing just that, adding a similar function to BNB. This should make the coin more inflationary and cause price to rise in the face of unchanged or rising demand.
Nice move.
Texas Firefighters Allocate Pension Funds To Crypto
This is huge, and going largely underreported. The Houston Firefighters' Relief and Retirement Fund used the New York Digital Investment Group to execute the purchase of $25 million in Bitcoin and Ether.
"The fund is responsible for the benefits of more than 6,600 active and retired firefighters as well as surviving family members. According to the group, more than half of the fund is invested in common and private equity but also includes domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, cash and real estate."
This is EXACTLY the kind of institutional adoption that we want to see. Pension funds and endowments investing in Bitcoin to take advantage of inevitable price gains and to hedge against inflation. This is quietly like MicroStrategy, but in the pension space.
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