The Wolf Den #346 - Trade Like A Samurai
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Two more days until the weekly close, so nothing is set in stone. That said, a clean break of the blue descending line and flip of the $53K high would utterly decimate any bearish case. We have a higher high now and a macro breakout that should send price to new highs.
DAILY CHART
Price is pushing into supply/resistance once again, so this is a key moment. Rejection and consolidation still would be no surprise. Above the red zone, this start to look very likely to quickly return to the all time high.
4-HOUR CHART
Caution. We have potential bearish divergence on basically every time frame from the daily down. You can see it here on the 4-hour. Completely unconfirmed. As you can see, price would still have to close a higher high on price for this to be in play, and then we would need to see a drop and a clear elbow down on RSI. That said, for any further price appreciation without a bear div, it will take a serious push on major volume.
A bear div is not the end of the world. Just a few days ago we had one and it was quickly replaced by a hidden bullish divergence.
Just keep your eyes on this. I will too.
HOURLY CHART
We have a potential cup and handle pattern on low time frames. Instead of me discussing it, here is a quick primer on this bullish pattern:
Altcoin Charts
Altcoin/USDT pairs continue to look good. All of yesterday's setups are in profit. FTM broke the all time high and retested support to the penny. MATIC is exploding out of the bull flag. SOL is bouncing from support and OCEAN seems to be continuing up. You can revisit all of those in yesterday's newsletter.
Speaking of FTM. I just received this message from a newsletter subscriber. I NEVER share these messages, but this one was just too amazing not to publish. This subscriber bought FTM on one of the early setups here and simply had diamond hands and patience. He turned a $200 trade into a $200,000 windfall. Absolutely incredible!
AR/USDT
This looks extremely similar to the FTM trade that we have been tracking for weeks and that I reposted yesterday, so you can revisit that as well. Like FTM, we had a breakout through a descending line which we discussed before and a move up to the highs of the line - basically the target of a descending wedge. That said, now we can watch for a break of the all time high and a move into price discovery. This is NOT a buy right no, it's almost at the first target of $74.38, which is resistance. The move is a break of that line and retest as support.
AVAX/USDT
AVAX appears to be finding support at the previous all time high again - $60.30. As long as that holds, this looks likely to continue up and back into price discovery. The safest trade is a break of the blue descending line, as I have been showing you guys over and over again.
SEC Approves Bitcoin-Centric ETF
Named the Volt Crypto Industry Revolution and Tech ETF, this new SEC-approved fund gives investors easy access into companies with a Bitcoin focus. According to the SEC filing, the ETF plans to hold, “Bitcoin Industry Revolution Companies” which are companies that derive the majority of their earnings from lending, transacting, or mining. This isn’t the first time an ETF was approved that has a relation to the crypto space, but it is the strongest most concentrated Bitcoin company ETF to date. According to the filing, 80% of the fund’s holdings will be allocated to Bitcoin-focused plays. As much as we want to see a Bitcoin spot ETF approved, in this race we are going to have to take what we can get.
Is Tether In Hot Water?
A new FUD piece began circulating from Bloomberg, alleging that an investigation into Tether’s reserves found, “Tether owns billions of dollars’ worth of commercial paper issued by large Chinese firms that are of questionable nature.” Furthermore, Tether also made a “billion-dollar loan to Celsius,” a lending platform that was recently accused of violating securities laws. To add to the suspicion, it is a known fact that Chinese real estate developers are some of the world’s largest issuers of commercial paper. According to Bloomberg, $30 billion of Tether’s reserves are from these entities. Evergrande is supposedly among the companies that have issued paper to Tether. If this is all true it could be bad news, but we will have to wait and hear from Tether.
Tether has previously denied dealing with Evergrande and claims to only hold A-2 and above rated assets on their balance sheet. This was confirmed in an audit. Also the twitter account of Tether CEO Jan Ludovicus van der Velde has vanished from the platform. The last statement from the account read, “stay tuned” with nothing else. There no need to panic, as we have hit dead ends going down this road for half of a decade. If you are concerned, consider USDC.
Total Value Locked In DeFi Hits 200B
200 Billion! That's a lot of money locked in DeFi. Here are the quick hits:
DeFi TVL has surged 825% since the beginning of 2021.
Ethereum is the dominant network with 72% of the total.
DeFi tokens are now worth the same as the entire crypto market was in early 2019.
This is not a passing fad - DeFi is here to stay and will only continue to grow.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.