The Wolf Den #343 - Bitcoin Went Up As Big Tech Went Down
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to look strong, largely invalidating yesterday's concerns. The bearish SFP on low time frames was smashed, and Bitcoin managed to make a small hidden bullish divergence on low time frames, invalidating the bear divs for now.
DAILY CHART
Price is well on the way to the local target of the wedge breakout - $52,956. There's very little resistance between here and that area, and the 50 and 200 MA are well below price at this point. Looking good.
This looks great. Price broke above the centerline at the end of the week and is now pushing to the upper band. You expect to hit the upper band when you flip the centerline. Further, the bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility - the more they expand, the further the upper band rises and the higher price should go.
4-HOUR CHART
As you can see, price smashed through $48,834 on increasing volume, invalidating the bearish SFP at that level. This was a strong move, pushing through all of that liquidity that was waiting there to sell. Now price continues to rise, with the next clear target on the 4-hour being $52,956. There's basically no resistance up to that line.
Bitcoin confirmed the world's smallest hidden bullish divergence to invalidate the bearish divergence. It counts! As you can see, bear divs are still in play if price does not continue to push, but for now they are of little concern. We will cross that bridge if we come to it.
Altcoin Charts
ALT/USDT pairs looks good. ALT/BTC pairs looks rough.
This usually means that BTC is about to go up, dragging the ALT/USDT pairs with it, but crushing them against BTC.
If your goal is stacking sats, you are better off in BTC as a trader at those times. By no means certain, but likely scenario. Just keep that in mind when trading alts today.
ALPHA/USDT
Yet another breakout of an altcoin through descending resistance on the USDT pair. I shared this one a few times last week in videos and my alarm went off a few hours ago. While there is MA resistance ahead, the target of this is the top of the blue descending line, around $1.50. This is the pattern to watch for on altcoins at the moment. Consolidation after a move up and then a breakout through the descending resistance of the consolidation.
MATIC/USDT
Just a quick refresh from yesterday - you can see that it has bounced for now from support, as hoped.
Legacy Markets
AMZN (AMAZON)
I am an Amazon investor and am always adding on dips, so this could be risky as a trader. That said, Amazon tapped local support yesterday at $3,175 and still has not filled the entire gap up to $3,580. For me, this is as good of a time as any to add to my stack for the very long term, at a major discount from the all time high in a company that will certainly continue to dominate. Price dumped hard yesterday when Facebook went down, so this seems like an overreaction that should be corrected.
Ripple Continues To Win In Court
The battle isn't over, but Ripple has scored another win in court. The presiding judge has now allowed six XRP investors the opportunity to offer their opinions on the record. XRP holders have been begging for the chance to intervene in the case and have finally been granted the right. The XRP community is extremely passionate, so I expect strong support from investors.
Hong Kong Is Making Progress On Their CBDC
Hong Kong has made significant progress in the CBDC race, issuing a whitepaper outlining research conducted on their digital currency. The currency is being referred to as the e-HKD, similarly named to China’s e-CNY. The official paper is 50 pages long and includes details on how different entities, institutions, and organizations can interact with the currency. The Bank For International settlements is working closely with regulators in Hong Kong. They have also joined forces with a number of other major countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Africa. It is my belief that CBDCs are going to arrive a lot quicker than we expect.
Bank Of America Launches Crypto Research
"Bank of America has launched digital assets research coverage nearly three months after forming a crypto group.
In its coverage, the bank highlighted companies from payment providers and banks to utilities to media giants.
Digital assets are a $2 trillion market with 200 million users, according to a Bank of America press release, and the sector is “too large to ignore,” a group of analysts led by Alkesh Shah wrote in a new research note.
“We believe crypto-based digital assets could form an entirely new asset class,” the analysts said, adding:
“Bitcoin is important with a market value of ~$900bn, but the digital asset ecosystem is so much more: tokens that act like operating systems, decentralized applications (DApps) without middlemen, stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to replace national currencies, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) enabling connections between creators and fans.”
Bank of America noted that venture capital investments in digital assets and blockchain technology surpassed $17 billion in the first half of 2021, “dwarfing” the $5.5 billion from the same period last year."
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, has a deep understanding of financial markets. Always ahead of the curve, Fidelity began their deep dive into crypto years ahead of other reluctant institutions. This has paid off - Fidelity is a major player in the space, and Jurrien is a vocal advocate for responsible Bitcoin and crypto investing. In this episode, Jurrien Timmer does a phenomenal job of discussing Bitcoin’s place in a portfolio and in the context of global macro environments.
In this episode, Jurrien Timmer and I discussed:
How Fidelity started in crypto
Fidelity wants a Bitcoin ETF
Pension funds want Bitcoin
Is Bitcoin better than gold?
Regimes of monetary inflation
Does Bitcoin benefit from current monetary policy?
Bitcoin is about network effects
What has intrinsic value?
Can you outsmart the market?
Balancing your crypto portfolio
Advice to young investors
Podcast sponsored by Sorare, where fantasy meets reality. Collect, trade and earn weekly prizes.
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