The Wolf Den #322 - What Are Your Plans For The Bear Market?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Bitcoins is slowly grinding its way through supply here, looking strong. Just remember that this is at resistance and volume is still lackluster. I am not saying it won't continue up, I am just saying that the move is not backed by volume and price is at resistance.
For those who trade crosses, we have a potential golden cross of the 50 and 200 MAs looking more likely, with the blue line approaching the red line. This would take days and could be invalidated if price drops. These are lagging indicators, so I rarely trade on them.
Bitcoin continues to look bullish, but I want to remind you that it is still at resistance. This is a time to exercise caution as a trader and not let euphoria take over. As you can see above, price continues to push but RSI is a bit stagnant, making another bearish divergence more likely. This is an idea, not confirmed, and could be quickly replaced again by a hidden bull div. But be careful and keep an eye on this.
4-HOUR CHART
That played out nicely. Symmetrical triangle breakout, retest as support, price head up. Now we want to see this 4-hour candle close above resistance at $50,562. Rejection there could cause a bearish SFP.
Altcoin Charts
DOGE/USDT
Update - DOGE broke out from the descending wedge and has retested the former resistance as support. This should be headed back up to 35 cents, at the top of the wedge. Simple set up.
LTC/USD
Litecoin just hit the target of the double bottom that I posted previously, and has already broken out from the descending wedge. signaling that the bottom was in.
The new opportunity is on this break of $189.35, the level where the move up topped out previously. I would watch for a retest of that level as support for the ideal entry. If you are more eager, you can buy now with fib levels above as targets, but that's a bit riskier.
Legacy Markets
AAPL (APPLE)
Quick reminder that Apple is in price discovery and has broke out of a bull pennant.
I have shared this a number of times, enjoy the gains.
Futures 101
Written by Sahil Bloom:
Over the last several weeks, I’ve hit on the basics of some common forms of derivatives, including call options and put options. But there is more work to be done. So, let’s go Back to the Futures. Sorry, I’ll show myself out.
Here’s Futures 101!
Futures are a common form of derivatives. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific amount of an asset at a specific price on a specific future date. Whereas an option gives the holder the right to buy or sell an asset, futures are an obligation.
A few key terms in futures: Tick Size: Minimum price fluctuation of contract; Contract Size: Quantity of asset in one contract; Notional Value: Contract Size * Underlying Asset Price; Delivery: Either financially settled (with cash) or physically settled (goods delivered)
When and why are they used? Futures have two key use cases: Hedging, Speculation. Let’s use simple examples to look at each of them.
First, hedging. Imagine you are a rice farmer. You sell your rice to Happy Fish Sushi, a chain of sushi restaurants. If rice prices rise, that is good for you, but bad for Happy Fish. If prices fall, the opposite is true.
Both you and Happy Fish want to plan your business and limit your exposure to movements in the price of rice. So you make an agreement. You will sell (and they will buy) a set amount of rice at a fixed price on the 1st day of the month. This is a futures contract!
Now, whether the price of rice rises or falls, you know how much you will be selling your rice for and Happy Fish knows how much they will be buying their rice for. This is a simple example of how futures may be used to allow businesses to hedge – i.e. limit – risk.
Next, speculation. Another very simple example. Say I am bullish on gold prices. I think the price should be $2,000+ per ounce, but see the September futures contract is at $1,500. I buy one contract. September arrives and the price of gold is $2,500, just as I predicted.
My futures contract obliges me to buy at $1,500 per ounce, but I can sell at $2,500 per ounce. I can either (a) take delivery of the gold and sell it or (b) sell the futures contract to someone who will. I used futures to speculate on a price movement (and profited from it).
Highly-traded futures markets include commodities, stock indexes, currencies, interest rates, and precious metals. Trading in futures typically requires a margin account, which entails real risks.
So those are the basics on futures – Futures 101. Stay tuned for more as we dive deeper on this and other topics.
JP Morgan Flashes Buy Signal
What a time to be alive. Visa bought a $150,000 NFT and JP Morgan is warning investors that “alts are looking frothy again.” The reality is that institutions like JP Morgan are looking to grab headlines and likely to grab coins. Wait until Bitcoin blows through $100,000 and watch how quickly the narrative will change.
Ignore what they say and watch what they do. It wasn’t long ago that JP Morgan was in the news for rolling out 4 new funds to offer their clients Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum Classic. If they aren't long-term bullish on the space, then they simply don't know what they are talking about. Chances are they are bullish, as their actions are speaking much louder than words.
Twitter Is Becoming Crypto Friendly
Rumors have circulated for quite some time that “crypto tipping” would become a new feature on Twitter’s interface. Supposedly, Bitcoin and Ethereum enabled addresses will be integrated into profiles, acting like a tip jar for users to digitally display and collect sats and gwei. While there has been no official announcement from Dorsey, a Twitter developer has already leaked screenshots of the interface and Jack Dorsey has been hinting at the implementation since July.
As simple as the concept is, the benefits could be astounding. There are many crypto content creators that produce amazing work without the luxury of monetizing their efforts. Now, more than ever, there would be an accessible financial incentive to create and contribute. All the viral tweets, blogs, videos, and articles that are selflessly released into the crypto world will soon be financially supported by the community. This is what crypto is all about - power to the little guy.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.