The Wolf Den #30 - Chart Requests, Market Thoughts
Bitcoin Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
I did not foresee having to add more lines lower down, but I have done that today in light of the aggressive bearish movement that happened this morning . $5.873 is a clear level that I will be watching.
Last month's ugly shooting star candle (only confirmed with a down candle this month) looks far more convincing now. Remember, this monthly candle is far from being close. I would feel more bullish if price closed this month above any of the black lines that it has broken down through thus far.
WEEKLY CHART
Bad. Absolute carnage, breaking through every possible support level thus far. As you know, charts only give us ideas, they are not "science" and cannot predict the future. My idea of buying $7,777 was a good one - confluence with levels on multiple charts. I am obviously no longer in this position.
I did fill some orders on the drop today - I did not expect them to hit so quickly, if ever. That said, my next major area of interest is the weekly demand zone drawn and the 200 weekly EMA. (red)
IMPORTANT NOTE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NEW - I ALWAYS move my stops up when price rises with my position. I hate seeing a winner turn into a loser, so this is a core part of my trading strategy. Since price initially bounced after my entry, I was able to exit without a loss on this trade.
DAILY CHART
What a head and shoulders! It hit it's target and more. Today's volume is the highest in ages, and selling volume has increased over the past few days - indication of a true bear trend (as if we need that confirmation now).
Daily RSI is currently sitting around 20 - the second lowest that it has ever been on the Coinbase chart. Some relief should be coming soon.
FOR FULL TRANSPARENCY - I bought Bitcoin just under $6,000 today, expecting a nice bounce. That bounce happened while I was driving my kid to school, so I did not sell and am currently sitting in that position, with some orders lower as discussed above.
Chart Requests - Not Many!
BNB/USDT
Key levels are marked. The blue support and resistance zone would be a great place to see the daily candle close hold, which it currently is. There's potential bullish divergence with RSI in oversold territory as well. This is likely to follow Bitcoin.
JNUG
Unbelievable chart. Price went from $104 to $22 in a few weeks. Today it made an all time low and by a big margin. The red shows a double top that broke down at the red line. I can't see anything here on this chart, it is presently in price discovery for a new all time low.
KNC/BTC
Still parabolic against Bitcoin, surprisingly. Nothing wrong with this chart at the moment, still between 2 key levels. Quite a pop from today's lows.
LINK/USD
The USD pair predictably followed Bitcoin's move. Key support level is the grey box. Price confirmed a double top with the break of the white neckline. Target is shown by a blue vertical zone, based on the depth of the double top. This is a log chart, which is why the zone target looks exaggerated - it's based on percentages not points. All of that said, if Bitcoin bounce, Link should bounce even harder.
OPK
What a chart. This looks like an alt coin pump and dump. The weekly is on the left - what a joke. The monthly is on the right, which shows that price is currently at a key level. I don't even know how to give an opinion on something that looks this ridiculous. Hope it holds this area.
SPCE
Parabolic up, parabolic down. It is actually in an interesting area now though, really a key support level on the chart at 12.93. A safer entry would be a break of the descending resistance that is newly formed. But still looks ok above that black line. Equities are so risky right now. This has basically reverted back to the mean.
WAVES/USDT
Interesting chart. Like many alts, this bounced off of a key level of support. I am curious to see where the day closes at this point. This had nice moves up, which means that it has a lot of room to drop if things continue down. Daily RSI is not even close to oversold yet.
XTZ/BTC
This finally dropped down to my bids. I have been posting this setup for weeks. It took one of the larger drops in Bitcoin history to fill. I am not so confident in trading alts, but I have had these bids sitting here for weeks.
ZIL/USDT
This is REALLY interesting here. Price is currently sitting at the previous all time low on the USDT pair after wicking down beneath. If price closes above this line we will have a bullish SFP (swing failure pattern). This would indicate that there was liquidity found beneath that line and that bids were filled and price should rise. This ALL depends on Bitcoin.
Stock Market Thoughts From Christopher Inks
First, I still believe that markets are heading down. The United States has been slow to react to the coronavirus, and now travel between here and Europe is being shut down. The economic impacts on companies will continue to be felt for a long time. The market has officially entered a bear market (down 20% from high) with a recession looming.
This is from my mentor, Christopher Inks, shared in the only Discord group that I participate in - he is the best in the business. These are his thoughts on the technicals of the stock market at present - and some back story for context. Like me, he does not believe that the downside has ended and is looking for recession.
You can join the group here, if you are interested. He does an absurd amount of work to keep his members informed.
https://www.patreon.com/TXWestCapital
"I wouldn't expect a V-shaped recovery for the stock market. In order for it to do so, there would have to be no further concern over the virus. In fact, the public would need to be convinced that things have been taken care of and all is fine going forward. The likelihood of that happening is pretty close to nil as pandemics tend to take quite a while to sort out. Instead, I believe we are seeing the fallout of a Distribution TR with a UTAD (upthrust after distribution) as I have been warning for the past 1.5-2 years, leading into a strong recession, depression, financial crisis -- whatever you'd like to call it. If so, then the lows have the potential to be quite significant. A year ago I suggested that we would likely see $14K-$15K. Now, it's looking a lot more like $10K-$12K. In case you are in disbelief, make sure you take a look at this comparison between the rise of the market into the Great Depression, and its subsequent fall, as compared to the rise into today's market and it's current fall. Remember, there are no guarantees in the market and anything can still happen to change the outcome, but until it does it's always best to be prepared.
Here is another interesting take from last year...
Also from Chris:
"I publicly called the October 2018 market top months before it happened and the subsequent low, as well as this move up. I have also not been shy in hiding my belief that a crash will target $15,000 at least. If we continue to follow this same market pattern from prior to 1987's Black Monday, then we should expect a rise toward $29,000, as I have mentioned previously, followed by a hard drop toward $15,000-$18,000 as the market crashes. From the $29,000-$30,000 level, the same ~40% seen in 1987 would have price dropping right into my target area. It is possible that we could see an even larger drop , however, as a result of the large rise in price since the 2009 market bottom.
That being said, price has to hit that upper level first. If not, and it drops instead, then we should expect a move toward ~$15,800 based on the broadening wedge that's been printing since January 2018. Furthermore, if price does head up to $29,000/$30,000 first, then if the pattern just rhymes with 1987, we should expect a low point to be found at the HVN around $12,500-$13,200, depending on when the market crashed, much like the 1987 crash wicked below the previous re-accumulation level. This would also be the likely target based on the height of the larger broadening wedge that would have printed."
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.