The Wolf Den #299 - Know The Value Of Your Dollar
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Price is still finding support at the top of the descending channel, as discussed. A drop further down would be no surprise, but ultimately I expect this to hold. 42K was always expected to be strong resistance.
Exactly as expected. Price was out above the bands, so a mean reversion before another push is what we are seeing - assuming we get another push.
4-HOUR CHART
Major bear divs continuing to play out, without hidden bull divs to cancel them.
Not a big deal
4-hour RSI is almost oversold already, after reaching the highest level of 2021 on the push to 42K. I will personally be watching for a bit more downside to hit oversold, then a bullish divergence to form (just an idea, no reason to expect this).
All of this still lines up with the idea that price could retrace to the EQ of the range, in the are of 36K.
That said, it seems everyone is looking to long this area, which leads me to believe that we will bounce higher... or nuke through if we get there to lower levels. The crowd rarely gets what it wants.
Altcoin Charts
RUNE went up almost 20% from the setup yesterday and hit the first target before retracing a bit. ADA continues to look good. I still think BTC pairs are showing promise. ETH/USD has also almost dropped down to the entry I discussed.
DOT/BTC
I am not sure that DOT will retrace this far, but I am very interested in adding to my Polkadot position and will be looking for something like this if it happens. Voyager offers 12% interest on this coin, so I have been holding my long term bag there.
.00041571 is a key resistance that has not been retested as support. The break of that line also confirmed a double bottom, which has already nearly hit its target.
Ultimately I believe in DOT, so I am buying dips.
DOT/USDT
The DOT/USDT pair just hit descending resistance and is now consolidating between that line and horizontal support. You want to see a clean break of the descending blue line to enter, unless you want to take a riskier entry at horizontal support.
A breakout should easily take this to around $28.
That said, this depends almost entirely on Bitcoin. If it drops, this will not play out.
Wells Fargo Joins The Bitcoin Ranks
Another bank can be added to the list of conservative banking and investment entities that offer Bitcoin to their customers. Wells Fargo is following the standard protocol of offering the asset solely to their “wealthy clients" - most likely accredited investors. The bank will offer both Bitcoin and crypto exposure, but hasn't publicly announced whether that exposure will be via direct Bitcoin or something along the lines of GBTC, mining stocks, or companies with Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Two or three years ago, this news would have been huge, but now it is "just another story" in the endless news cycle of positive events in the crypto world. Banks will continue to fall in line as their customers demand crypto services.
Senators Are Speaking Out Against The Infrastructure Bill
Crypto enthusiasts are seeking clarity on the details of the infrastructure bill, as the industry is clearly caught in the crosshairs. The first voices of dissent came from the community, but now senators are speaking up as well. The bill poses a threat to the entire space, because complying with some of the demands is impossible. For example, developers of technologies like wallets would need to provide information to the IRS on their customers, who are largely anonymous. Luckily, senators on both sides of the aisle are beginning to voice their concerns around the bill, which will hopefully lead to a delay or revision.
The main issue is that the infrastructure bill is massive, so making changes creates endless negotiations on both sides of the aisle. One senator from Michigan supports the bill because it will help protect the Great Lakes and another senator from Oregon dislikes the bill because the blockchain industry is harmed. As a result, crypto is becoming a bargaining piece - one that the people arguing over do not fully understand.
The entire bill is a shit show of competing interest with cryptocurrency caught in the middle, and a prime example of the failures of American politics. One of the easier things we can do is support the senators that are speaking out with our interests in mind. At the least, go ahead and follow them on twitter. If you own a business or are a developer, consider posting online how you could be affected. We can all do our small part.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Willy Woo
Willy Woo is arguably the most prolific on-chain analyst in the crypto space, and uses data to better understand what is truly happening on the Bitcoin network. In this episode, he discussed the behavior of whales, what institutions are doing, what the macro environment looks like for crypto, and where Bitcoin is likely headed. Needless to say, Willy Woo believes that the data is pointing to massive long-term bullishness for Bitcoin.
Willy and I discussed:
Stealing from the poor, giving to the rich
Are central banks a threat?
China bans Bitcoin
On-chain fundamentals
Bitcoin’s recent signals
Why wasn't Bitcoin's drop predicted?
The Bitcoin liquidation engine
The “oh shit price”
Can on-chain metrics be spoofed?
Why are coins moving?
Bitcoin achieving mainstream adoption
Institutions coming to Bitcoin
Where is Bitcoin headed?
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.