The Wolf Den #297 - Taking Coins Off Exchange
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The bear divs across multiple time frames are finally playing out, causing a bit of healthy retracement for Bitcoin after the best run of the year - 8 green candles in a row (9 on some exchanges). I have been pointing these out for days, and the fact that price was at strong resistance with renewed euphoria in the market.
Let's take a look at the charts.
MONTHLY CHART
With just over a day left before the monthly candle close, price is holding the EQ of the ascending channel as support, with a hammer candle. This would lend credence to a bullish argument, after last month was a high wave spinning top showing bearish indecision. I will be watching this close.
DAILY CHART
Yesterday printed a "sell 9" on TD Sequential, an indicator that many traders check for confluence of ideas. Today's drop was no surprise, based on this indicator. A new bullish count can start any time.
As I stated was likely yesterday, price is trading back within the Bollinger Bands after pushing above the top band for a few days. This looks quite a bit like last December, as shown. After such a strong move after the bands tightened, we would expect eventual continuation to the upside.
We are currently getting the expected retest of the channel highs as support. I would not be surprised to see it retrace a bit lower, but ultimately I expect price to head up.
We STILL NEED TO BE ABOVE 42K to start talking about a true bullish cash.
4-HOUR CHART
The blue supply zone remains very strong resistance, with yet another failed test. I have been talking about this area for months. As you can see, the overbought bear div (also present on 12 hour and down) is playing out. I also mentioned that this drop would likely give us hidden bullish divergence, which is potentially happening now, but not confirmed. That would signal the bear divs are canceled and that price is likely to reverse to the upside.
At the moment, we also have a nice potential bull flag on the 4 hour (red).
State Street Is Turning To Crypto
State Street is massive - they currently boast $3.5 trillion in AUM and are the second oldest continually operating bank in the U.S. Since their recent addition of a digital asset unit, they have now partnered with Lukka to offer, “digital asset fund administration tools for private fund clients.”
When it comes to the legacy side of finance, State Street is a prime candidate for doing things the “old way.” That being said, they are impressively adapting to the current innovation happening on the crypto side of finance. Banks, hedge funds, asset managers, and other institutions will have to keep up with a similar pace as State Street or they risk losing their status. Overall, it’s huge deal for State Street to make the moves they're making, and it puts pressure on a lot of other similar institutions.
PayPal Advances On Crypto Offering
PayPal is gearing up to expand its crypto products. In their Q2 earnings call, the CEO hinted at the possibility of a UK rollout as soon as next month. It wasn't clear if the implementation would offer access to PayPal or Venmo, but it should be at least one of the two platforms. He also shared high praise for DeFi and CBDCs, but not a lot of mention of the highest-demand product - the ability to withdraw.
For the time being, it seems like PayPal is focused on pleasing a wider audience by expanding its user base and adding new services. The CEO described their new focus as a “super app” which would offer, “high-yield savings, early access to direct deposit funds, new and improved bill pay functionality, messaging capabilities as well as additional crypto capabilities and customized deals and offers.” Anything PayPal adds is great for mainstream adoption. The platform is HUGE and is trusted around the world.
MicroStrategy Plans To Buy More Bitcoin
In other news, water is wet. We all know that Saylor is committed to purchasing Bitcoin indefinitely. In their Q2 earnings call, it was resported that MicroStrategy lost roughly 700M on paper on Bitcoin in the quarter - but are still up over a billion.
Regardless, we can count on Michael Saylor to continue providing a floor and buying the dips and rips whenever possible.
Binance Shutting Down Derivatives in Europe
The hits just keep on coming for the embattled exchange. Binance can't seem to catch a break, as they work tirelessly to become compliant with current a future regulation around the world. Europe has been particularly difficult, so Binance is shutting down all derivatives trading on the continent.
The huge moves by exchanges to make changes all at once would indicate that there's big news in the regulatory arena coming soon.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.
This is where I spend my days teaching and learning! Our Discord group is a one stop shop for everything you need to learn to trade and control your emotions. Feel free to DM me on Twitter or respond to this email for questions. Code Wolfsden50%off for a 50% discount on the first month.
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
Rewards Code: WOLF25
Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.