The Wolf Den #274 - Long-Term Vs. Short-Term Investing
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Beautiful. Price finally flipped the EQ of the descending channel and turned it to support, as discussed yesterday. Price should be heading to the top of the channel.
My only concern is volume - still not much coming in. Watch the descending 50 MA above for resistance.
4-HOUR CHART
Also beautiful. Price is pushing through strong resistance, with both local supply (blue) and the EQ of the range. Flipping the EQ to support around $36,000 should mean price targets the top of the range. This is the potential path to testing 40K and ultimately 42K again. We need to see follow through and candles closing at or above current price.
Looking great for now!
Altcoin Charts
Altcoins started gearing up yesterday, which I noticed later in the afternoon. I sent this tweet, which seems to be showing some follow through.
In this case, it appeared that the strong charts for alts against USDT were a leading indicator that Bitcoin was likely to continue up. On my livestream, we looked at LTC, EOS and others that were breaking descending resistance, and we know that ETH was already looking good, which tends to lead altcoin movement. We are seeing BTC price rise and BTC Dominance drop, a bit of a dream.
The ADA set up from yesterday is playing out beautifully.
My only concern is that there's minimal volume on any coin at the moment, so fakeouts would not be a surprise. Make sure to manage your risk, as always.
Here are a few quick charts I am watching, but if the market remains strong (BIG IF), then you can throw a dart since so many coins look bottomed out.
BNB/USDT
Easy setup. Price is breaking descending resistance and the EQ of the local red trading range. Assuming this breakout is successful (close above resistance), you can attempt to buy a retest of the descending blue line or you can enter now which is a bit riskier. The EQ of the range on a retest is also a potential entry. Targets are $382 at the blue range EQ, $431 at the top of the red range, and $690 at the blue range high, assuming it can flip the EQ at $382.
I would personally place stops comfortably below the descending blue line.
DOGE/USDT
Another breakout through descending resistance. You can use Fibonacci levels in blue as targets, as well as the black resistance lines. Ultimately, this setup should revisit the all time high, but I have my doubts since that was purely fueled by retail FOMO and Elon Musk. I am hesitant to even post DOGE, but the chart looks good so you should do with it as you please!
LTC/USDT
I shared this in the livestream yesterday, so you may have entered a bit lower. Price has already broken out, but there has been no retest of yet. That could be a good entry, but no guarantees it drops again. I like the Fibonacci levels as targets, in blue. These represent retracements from the recent highs to the lows about a week ago.
This is a clean breakout and looks like it is reversing beautifully.
Legacy Markets
TSLA (TESLA)
I shared this setup last week at around $641, as price pushed through the 50 MA. Now price has broken resistance and looks like it is retesting it as support. It's very close, so it may be better to wait for a more clear resistance break, but this continues to look strong and the upside is tremendous on a strong break.
Morgan Stanley Buys GBTC
It’s hard to recognize bullish news when everything else is bearish, but Morgan Stanley has purchased 28.2k shares of GBTC, valued at approximately $1.3m. I recently interviewed Lyn Alden and asked her why the market was down and one of her main reasons was the lack of institutional GBTC interest in the arbitrage trade, which evaporated alongside the premium over NAV. Institutions were heavily buying GBTC to the point of it trading at a steep premium, and simultaneously shorting the spot market. Nonetheless, GBTC remains a great alternative for institutions scared to hold Bitcoin directly on their balance sheet.
All of this aside, it is bullish to see Morgan Stanley effectively owning paper Bitcoin. Lyn Alden gave an excellent explanation of the GBTC arbitrage trade and the current status of its demand. I'll be releasing that episode soon!
Ark Investment’s Cathie Wood Is Behind A Bitcoin ETF
Cathie Wood made a prediction about a month ago that the recent downturn would increase the chances of a Bitcoin ETF approval. Now Ark has teamed up with 21Shares to submit a proposal for their own ETF. 21Shares is a European-based company, but the proposed ETF will be based out of the US at the CBOE. Despite the SEC rejecting and delaying every proposal, it’s nice to see her join in on the fight. Wood has been a strong advocate for Bitcoin and has publicly stated that she believes Elon will return and that a single Bitcoin will hit $500,000 at some point.
Bitcoin Confusion Continues
A lot of blatant misinformation exists in the crypto space, and an unfortunate legal judgment just made things a little worse. Craig Wright, the man who claims to be Satoshi, was in a lawsuit regarding the copyright claims of the original Bitcoin white paper. He has actively been trying to obtain the rights to the paper and found a way to win against Bitcoin.org and Bitcoincore.org. The webmaster of Bitcoin.org happened to be a pseudonymous, Bitcoiner so he didn't show up in court when sued by Wright. The result is that now both of these sites are being forced to take down the Bitcoin white paper. Wright has been attempting to steal everything Bitcoin-related and to misguide the community into using his Bitcoin knockoff coin, BSV. It’s a shame to see the white paper removed, but the facts seem to be showing Craig Wright won’t get much further in his journey to erase the white paper. Doing so around the world is legally too difficult and very costly.
FTX And Tom Brady
Tom Brady added laser eyes to his twitter profile at the top. As a way to repent, he has taken equity in FTX and will be paid the bonus in crypto. FTX has now named the Miami Arena, partnered with MLB, endorsed Trevor Lawrence and Tom Brady. Sam Bankman-Fried is pushing hard for mainstream awareness of crypto.
Interview With Crypto Potato
The fine folks at Crypto Potato asked me to discuss the market, my music career and my general thoughts on trading and investing.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Vijay Boyaparti
In 2018, Vijay Boyapati blessed the entire Bitcoin community with a powerful, in-depth article, The Bullish Case For Bitcoin. The highly praised work was so popular that its arguments were expanded upon and compiled into a book. Vijay makes the simple, yet elegant case that Bitcoin is still in the infant stages of its evolution, but more importantly, it is progressing magnitudes faster than any currency in history. Bitcoin is quickly refining into a store of value in real-time for investors around the world, giving them the opportunity to participate in “the most important innovation to money in a thousand years.”
In this episode, Vijay Boyapati and Scott Melker explore:
The monetization process
Is this a bear market?
The store of value market
Diamond hand conviction
The stages of money
Bitcoin as legal tender
What makes Bitcoin superior?
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. Fiat
Clean and green Bitcoin
The Chinese mining ban
Threats to Bitcoin
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