The Wolf Den #257 - Elon Musk Tweets... Again
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
What is there to say? The chart looked ready to go and then Musk tweeted, resetting charts across the board. Now we somewhat need to wait once again for new patterns and ideas to form.
DAILY CHART
Bitcoin was finally giving some clarity, breaking up from the "bear pennant" or symmetrical triangle that had formed. It was a bit suspect, because volume was so weak on the move, but still looked prepared to invalidate the downside move.
Now we have a fake breakout and drop.
42K is still the key level, and there's almost no volume right now with everyone in Miami.
We once again have potential hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart, so will have to watch for tonight's close to see if it confirms. This would require a clear elbow down on RSI, which we have for the moment.
4-HOUR CHART
Resistance is strong above! That blue zone remains key before even getting to 42K. We have a nice potential hammer candle forming now, with a few hours left. Too early to call it, but could be a nice signal if we see this candle green with a wick down.
Honestly, very hard to determine what is happening now with Bitcoin.
What Is Ethereum?
It is hard to have a discussion about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology without crossing into Ethereum’s sphere of influence. Ethereum is the second-largest coin by market cap, fluctuating between 10-30% dominance of the entire crypto market cap. Bitcoin and Ethereum typically combine for 60-70% of the entire crypto market size – their influence and importance can’t be understated.
Ethereum also features Ether — a “decentralized, peer-to-peer cryptocurrency that runs on the blockchain,” but their use cases are starkly different. While Bitcoin stands as a superior store of value/digital gold, Ethereum can be thought of as the world’s most programmable blockchain. So let’s jump right in.
Back in 2013, Ethereum’s founder Vitalik Buterin envisioned a new currency that functioned similarly to Bitcoin. His vision, however, was to create something that offers more than Bitcoin’s simple properties of value transfer and storage. Vitalik imagined a decentralized, programmable platform that provided a drawing board for developers and programmers around the world to build upon – out of this, Ethereum was born.
For the sake of clarification, Ether (ETH) refers to the name of the asset that powers the Ethereum network. Most people just write the word Ethereum for the network and asset, leaving it up to context to clarify.
Don’t worry though because this beginner blog will avoid the deeper/more confusing details. At this point, it is just important to note that Ethereum shares many similar characteristics to Bitcoin while also offering its own unique set of programmable properties for entrepreneurs, businesses, and visionaries around the world to enjoy.
Growing Institutional Interest
So, who is talking about Ethereum, is it actually picking up steam? In 2020, we began to see the first signs of major institutions taking the asset seriously, up until that point they had only cared about Bitcoin. Below are a few examples but certainly not the entire list.
“Over the course of 2020, we are seeing a new group of investors who are Ethereum first and in some cases Ethereum only. There’s a growing conviction around Ethereum as an asset class.” – Greyscale Managing Director
“One River Digital Asset Management has commitments that will bring its holdings of Bitcoin and Ether to about $1 billion as of early 2021.” – One River Digital Asset Management
“We are pleased to launch our new Ether futures contract.” – CME
“Given the importance of real uses in determining the store of value, Ether has a high chance of overtaking Bitcoin as a dominant store of value.” – Goldman Sachs
The Makeup Of Ethereum
So high-level interest is here, but why is Ethereum interesting? Looking back to the advent of the internet and the web can help answer this question. When the internet first came out, it was the later invention of the web that allowed users to explore, create, and service the internet's infrastructure. For the web to run, it relied on the internet. But the web is what unlocked the potential of the internet. After blockchain technology first came out, it was Ethereum that allowed crypto users to explore, create, and service the infrastructure. It behaves almost identical to the way the web does, except it pertains to value instead of information.
Ethereum is playing a pivotal role in the transition from an internet of information to an internet of value.
Ethereum is a smart contract platform, meaning tech-savvy people can write code to conduct automated contracts. In essence, this removes human error and centralized reliance. A farmer can now automate crop collection, analyze market conditions, and sell his final products based on agreed-upon code – all without a middleman. Through this smart contract capability, Ethereum also offers its users the ability to create decentralized applications.
Despite looking just like an app you may download in the Play Store, these applications don’t depend on a centralized server. They are truly decentralized, in that they rely on code written on top of the blockchain. With Dapps, rather than relying on your government for a birth certificate or house title; or relying on a company for an insurance plan or banking number, we can truly own the assets that mean the most to us. Ethereum can and will radically change the way we interact with value.
ETH 2.0
But the story doesn’t end here, Ethereum is currently undergoing a major upgrade, the largest protocol update that has ever taken place in the crypto space. Spanning back to last year, this major upgrade will transition Ethereum from a proof-of-work consensus algorithm to a proof-of-stake. For now, it’s not important you understand these more complicated concepts and we’ll get into these later on in this series. Just remember that Ethereum 2.0 will be quicker to use, more affordable, scalable, and secure. The necessity behind Ethereum 2.0 couldn’t be more apparent today.
Right now, Ethereum’s biggest problem is that it has become too popular. The popularity among the community has resulted in congested transactions and high fees. Decentralized finance, the future of finance, has almost entirely selected Ethereum as its platform of choice. Roughly 95% of activity lives on Ethereum. This new way of doing finance relies on smart contracts and Dapps, the service Ethereum provides. Although the community is free to use a number of alternative platforms to build on, they continue to fight over the little bit of space left up for grabs on Ethereum – a good problem to have, one that Ethereum 2.0 is designed to fix.
The Future And Beyond
So, if Bitcoin is the king of storing value, Ethereum can be thought of as the king of creating value. There are a couple of final key points you should keep an eye on this market cycle. You may have heard of the “flippening,” a spinoff of the word “halvening”. The flippening is a highly anticipated hypothetical moment of Ethereum overtaking Bitcoin’s throne as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. For this to happen, Ethereum will need to continue outpacing Bitcoin and gaining traction from major institutions.
One major factor driving the flippening is the upcoming Ethereum improvement proposal specifically eip-1559. This improvement will restructure Ethereum’s fee distribution. Once implemented, it will reduce about 90% of daily sell-side pressure, leaving nothing but clear skies for price discovery. The perfect storm has been brewing for Ethereum over the past year. The increasing institutional interest, ETH 2.0 progress, and near deflationary tokenomics have caught mainstream media attention. Imagine the burning passion early investors, entrepreneurs, coders, and pioneers felt from the internet and the web in the ‘90s. A quarter of a century later, Ethereum is presenting an opportunity to feel that fire once again, a flame that will spark value creation around the world.
20 Ways to Stand Out In A Hiring Process
By Sahil Bloom:
The hiring process is ultra-competitive. But you’ve incorrectly been told that the only way to stand out is by having fancy degrees and credentials.
20 ways to stand out in a hiring process (that don’t involve your resume):
Do Your Research
Before an interview, spend a few hours researching the company and role. At a minimum, learn the company mission, read up on recent news on the company or its market, and study the backgrounds of the key leaders. Google is a powerful asset. Use it.
Embrace “I Don’t Know”
You can’t know the answer to every question. And you know what? That’s ok! Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know” - but then follow it with a plan to acquire that information. “I don’t know, but I’ll dig in and follow up with an email.” Then follow up!
Stop Fearing Rejection
I’m not embarrassed to admit that I’ve been rejected for more jobs than I can count. It happens. You can’t be a fit for everything and everyone. Stop being afraid of rejection and put yourself out there. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Prepare for “Why Us?”
Interviewers inevitably ask, “Why us?” Make sure you are prepared for it. What attracted you to this company? The more specific, the better. Generic answers (“I love investing”) get minus points. Specific answers win.
Stalk (Non-Creepily!)
If you know who you will be interviewing with, spend time learning about their background and experience. Identify potential bonding areas (e.g. same alma mater, similar interests or hobbies, etc.). This prior knowledge may help you connect more deeply.
Seek Warm Intros
Warm intros and references are the holy grail of a competitive hiring process. Scan your networks for any connections to a company (yes, LinkedIn is actually useful for something!). If you find any that are close enough, use them. The smallest edge can help!
Blend Deference & Confidence
Show deference to your interviewer, but not at the expense of confidence. The power dynamics of an interview are nuanced. Blending deference and confidence is how you manage them effectively and leave the interviewer with a positive impression.
Play to Your Strengths
Don’t fight on an even playing field. If you have unique attributes or competitive advantages, use them. Played a team sport? Talk about it! Taught yourself to code? Hype that up! Humility is great, but make sure they know what makes you special!
Show Your Passion
Showing a genuine passion and excitement for the company and role is the easiest way to stand out from the crowd. People want to hire candidates that want to be there. So smile, express your excitement (calmly!), and let that passion shine through.
Carry a Notebook
When you go to an interview, always bring a notebook. It’s not just pageantry - use it. If something comes up that is interesting or requires a follow up, make a point of writing it down. It shows attentiveness. Interviewers notice these little things.
Personalized Thank Yous
After an interview, always send a thank you note to the interviewer. Make them punchy (so that the person actually reads it!). Include a specific detail (that you wrote down in your notebook!) from the interview so that it doesn’t appear generic.
Ask Unique Questions
Most interviews end with a classic: “Do you have any questions for me?” This isn’t just a throwaway question. It is an opportunity to show off your differentiated initiative and hustle. Ask a unique question grounded in your diligence on the company.
Real Weaknesses
Getting asked about your weaknesses feels like a trap, so we tend to give weaknesses that are actually strengths (“I’m TOO detail oriented”). Don’t do that. I once told an interviewer I didn’t know accounting (but that I would learn it). That’s a real weakness!
Focus on the Long-Term
An interviewer may ask about your plans for the next few years. Beware! This question can be a trap to catch short-term thinkers. Simply reframe it and focus on the long-term. Companies want long-term thinkers, so tailor your response to that want.
Highlight Learning as a Goal
When asked about your goals for the coming years, always highlight learning (among any others). Constant learners tend to be great employees. Since you want to present as someone that would be a great employee, emphasize learning as a primary goal.
Nail the Cover Letter
A punchy, well-written cover letter is one of the best ways to stand out. Keep it short and include a *specific* answer to the “why us?” question. Try to infuse an element of personality. Especially for “reach” jobs, make sure you nail the cover letter!
Make Them Look Smart
In large organizations, hierarchies matter. If interviewing at one, be clear about how you will fit in and help it thrive. When speaking with your future manager(s), you want them to believe you will make them look smart to their bosses if they hire you.
Pass the Plane Test
There’s a common (+ dated!) test in the hiring process: “Would I want to sit next to this person on a plane for 5 hours?” This was about being “normal” - but normalcy is overrated. Be yourself, but be sure to get across that you are kind and genuine.
Targeted Outreach
Before applying to a company, try to interact with 1-2 of its employees. Reach out to a few people in similar roles to what you’re applying for and ask if they would be willing to share their insights. You’ll learn a lot and maybe even improve your chances.
Prove Readiness
Hiring managers want to know you can do the job (or quickly learn to do it). If possible, cite examples of how you’ve done the requirements of this job in the past. If not possible, cite examples of times you have quickly learned something new and had success.
The news cycle has seemingly come to a complete half for crypto . It is almost eerie. Each day I dig for news and find less and less to report.
Bloomberg Remains Bullish On Crypto
Bloomberg released their June crypto report, which was largely positive and bullish. Interestingly, the report states that Ethereum is on the rise and could legitimately flip Bitcoin's market cap if the trend continues.
“Number two Ethereum is rapidly moving toward number one market-cap status and has been a top driver of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index in 2021. Bitcoin is more likely to resume appreciating toward $100,000 resistance rather than sustaining below $20,000.”
Their belief is that Bitcoin is headed to 100K and that Ethereum could still outperform. Unexpected.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.