The Wolf Den #25 - Markets, Bitcoin and Chart Requests
Bitcoin
I am long Bitcoin, with an average entry around $8,600. I stopped out of my previous short term Bitcoin trades, but am presently about even on the whole move as a result of these lower entires. My main thinking is in this tweet.
There are a few reasons that price could reverse here, but the main ones are the 200 EMA (and MA) and the Kijun from the daily cloud. There are quite a few levels of support in this area as well, so a slightly further drop would not surprise me at all.
This is redundant, as I discussed it on Tuesday. It would not be a surprise to see the weekly channel breakout retested as support, so even a move into the 7000s here would not be particularly bearish. That said, we now have a 50% retrace of the entire recent move up and the weekly candle is currently above the 21 and 50 EMA. A "healthy retrace" could still be deeper, all of the way to the 70.5% level, which is considered the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) by many traders. That is at $7,637.
The hourly had oversold bullish divergence with RSI (not shown) yesterday, which caught the local bottom. Price has broken out of a local descending channel and retested it as support. Price also recaptured the 21 EMA on this time frame. That said, volume has dropped locally on this rise - that's more of a sign of bearish consolidation (bear flag forming?) than it is of a true renewed bull trend. We need to see VOLUME.
Caution is advised. Markets are crashing left and right.
Chart Requests
AMZN
A bit ugly. As I always discuss, charts are far tougher to use for stocks because fundamentals REALLY MATTER. In a black swan event, not chart pattern is going to save you. That said, there are areas of support below that are interesting, most notably the ascending blue line and $1782.17. I am interesting in taking a few bites at those levels.
APT (ALPHA PRO TECH))
What a move over the past few days! Price has been in a large ascending channel since inception and price move from the EQ all of the way to the top of the channel in a matter of days. This is officially in price discovery for new all time highs on increased volume. I would look to potentially enter on a retest of the ATH, as shown on the chart on the left with the circle. Hard to know where this is going now - I am assume there were fundamentals behind this move.
ATOM
My view is the same as last week - I did not change anything on the chart. It appears to have found support at 3984 for now, and this candle is looking potentially good. I still would prefer to see price break the descending broadening wedge.
CHK (CHESAPEAKE ENERGY)
This is an atrocious chart. The only glimmer of hope is a potential bull div with RSI on the weekly, but RSI is still pointing down for now. For now, this is in all time low discovery. If I was in this, I would personally be looking to escape on a bounce up to the previous all time low.
CLVS (CLOVIS ONCOLOGY)
Just another chart gone wrong. Price appeared to be in a descending wedge (bullish), but has broken down today. Key levels are marked, but tons of resistance over head, including all EMAs.
DAX
DAX was looking good 6 months ago, and was rising after breaking it's downtrend. It is still in an ascending channel, so a buy off of the bottom support could be decent. That said, this week price gapped below every single EMA on the weekly, as well as the EQ of that channel. This is a pretty aggressive move down, no need to try to catch the knife.
DIS
What a difference a few days makes. I have long term holdings, but stopped out of my trades on Disney. Absolute perfect shit storm for this stock - coronavirus fears added with the CEO stepping down two days ago has crushed it. That said, it's in an area of real interest for buyers. Price is filling a massive gap shown on the left and a key level of support at the bottom of that gap. I am considering some small buys there.
ENJ/USD
Interesting chart. Price found support at 9175, a key level as outlined. Further, the last 2 candles are being support by the 200 EMA. If that holds, this has potential to rise. Of course, that is ALL dependent on Bitcoin. If it drops, these USDT pairs are likely to drop with it.
EOS/USD
As discussed previously, I was very bullish on the USD pairs of majors on the breakout from their long term down trends. That said, I exited most of my positions last week and the week before. EOS is in a tough spot here - it looks like there's a head and shoulders that broke down the neckline (blue). The present candle looks potentially good. 3.6566 is an important level, and price is currently below. If that H&S plays out, I would expect a retest of the blue line and then further downside. You want to see price back above that blue ascending line. This depends on Bitcoin.
EOSBEAR
EOSBEAR has very little price history, so I took a quick look at the 4 hour chart. The key levels are marked, and the top black line is still resistance to me. This could be starting to form a bull flag. Again, hard chart to read, so little history.
ETH/USD
This will go as Bitcoin goes. If you think there is more downside for Bitcoin, this USD pair will likely drop. Much like all majors, this appears to be correcting after it's breakout from the longer term downtrend. Fibs on this move up are very interesting and are probably the best way to look for entries and exits. At the moment, the 38.2% fib is holding as support. Today's candle looks promising so far. A nice hammer like this could signal reversal if it can close this way.
GRIN
Trading range (horizontal) and descending channel. First step would be a move above the EQ of the descending channel (dashed centerline). Right now I don't see a reason to try to catch a knife, but this could reverse with the market if that happens.
ICX/USD
Interesting chart, like many on the USD and USDT pairs. Price has retraced to the key support level on the chart (blue box) which was also a golden retrace (just over the 61.8% fib). If Bitcoin rises, this is a good area to buy. If it drops, this will likely go with it.
INSM (INSMED)
Breaking support and looks like it may shoot down to close that massive gap. 200 EMA would be the next level of support that I would be watching. If markets continue to dump, this does not look good.
KHC (KRAFT HEINZ)
What a disgusting chart. Price is currently testing the all time low. Seems people hate ketchup. If it breaks that line, this could go into price discovery. If you are for some reason passionate about Mayonnaise, this is the last support on the chart, so you could consider buying. I would not, personally.
LINK
This is presently my largest alt holding. As I mentioned on Tuesday, I bought this at the purple line and down into the blue zone. Luckily I did not stop out on the wick down, as I accounted for it with my stop loss. This still looks good, especially since it moved well yesterday against Bitcoin.
LTC/USD
Again, USD pairs are going to react to Bitcoin. This looked very bullish but has broken down from an ascending channel in the past few days. $63.688 is a key level and price is currently below. That said, if Bitcoin reverses here, this will go up. The daily candle looks potentially bullish.
MSFT (MICROSOFT)
Pretty gross. Last night, Microsoft announced that they will miss on guidance on Windows related products because of supply chain issues in China. Obvious. We are going to likely see this with hundreds of companies. That said, long term this is a stock I will be interested in if it finds a bottom. The next level I would watch is around $160. Then the 200 EMA.
NEO
NEO is massively disappointing to me. As you know this was my favorite set up and I stopped out at a loss. That said, looks like it may have found support at a key level, 1254, there's hidden bullish divergence with RSI on the daily, and tweezer bottoms for now on this candle and the last. This could be reversing here.
OCEAN
The same chart as I have shared before. Holding support at the moment around 599. If Bitcoin remains stable, this should continue up. If not, I would watch for the cloud to offer support, as well as the blue line below.
OXY (OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM)
Disgusting. Breaking support, all EMAs pointing down, nothing but empty air below. Strong volume on the sell off - this downside is real.
RSR
Pretty damn bullish at the moment. Working on a break of a key area of resistance. I would personally love to see a strong close above that level, then look for a retest as support as an entry. This is parabolic until proven otherwise.
RVN
I have shared this chart 100 times and it's still the same. Predictably, price could not break the red resistance and dropped back down once again to the blue support zone. That has been a strong area to buy, so I could see taking a position in this area. Easy to cut if that zone finally breaks.
SC
Back in the range, holding key support at 25. I would like to see this back above the blue range, 30 sats. Then I could see another move up to the top black line. For now, this looks like it's finding a local bottom. DEPENDS ON BITCOIN.
SYS
Aggressive sell off of late, price now trading below the 200 EMA once again. Has broken a key support level. That said, it's bouncing above ascending support of the local trend, so this area could be a decent entry. I would prefer for price to be trading back above 335.
TWTR
Potentially breaking a key line of support here, the day will be interesting to watch play out. Gapping down like most equities, hard to get excited about buying this at the moment. That said, the blue zone below price is a key area off demand, so it's worth watching if buyers show up in that area.
ZIL
Could be a decent spot if the market is bouncing. Risky. Key levels are marked, but this is ranging sideways in my opinion.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.