The Wolf Den #248 - China FUD
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly chart is somewhat ugly, no doubt about it. For the first time since last March, we actually saw follow through after a bad candle, with another huge down candle on the weekly. That said, if you pull Fibonacci levels from the bottom of the March 2020 move to the 65k top (black), you can see that price is finding support at the 50% level (not a Fib level, but often used). It would be great to see that hold as support.
If you pull Fibs from the $9800 lows that really started this move (red), you can see that price retraced just past 61.8% and into the golden pocket. That's about as much as you expect from an entire "bear market" all at once.
We have a long way to go until the week is up, so I will be watching.
DAILY CHART
Key levels are marked here, for me. you can see we have a ton of daily volume in this whole area, it is a real battle between bulls and bears for what comes next. On the bullish side, we can see huge wicks down on most of the candles - that indicates a lot of buyers. On the bearish side, we still have not been able to advance that much higher on those moves, so bulls really need to start flipping resistance levels into support. So far, today's bounce is encouraging.
We finally confirmed the oversold bullish divergence that I have been watching for. Now we need price to continue up and avoid confirming any hidden bearish divergences, which would happen if we saw a higher high on RSI with a lower high on price. Either way, this is the first time that Bitcoin has been oversold on the daily since March, 2020.
We have divs on most time frames below the daily, so same story - need continuation.
4-HOUR CHART
Beautiful reversal candle a few candles ago and now a potential breakout of local resistance. Really touchy here, not getting excited yet. But there are some nice signals that we could be heading back up soon to test higher levels.
Legacy Markets
XAU (GOLD)
Updated gold chart, showing a clear breakout and retest and movement away from the descending channel. This looks very bullish and should be revisiting the highs, if not eventually making new ones.
Michael Saylor Is Not Giving In
Against all FUD, Michael Saylor has continued to stand firmly with the crypto market on his back. Talking heads and bears began to speculate if Saylor would turn his back on Bitcoin and Saylor snapped back reaffirming the conviction thatwe all know and love. Michael Saylor has not only put his reputation on the line, but also his company and net worth. This shakeout has proven that he is prepared to die on the Bitcoin hill and continue the fight no matter the cost. It is only a matter of time until the world recognizes him as a hero and not just us in the crypto community.
Crypto Market Loses Nearly 1.3 Trillion
An old saying for financial markets is that price tends to take the stairs up and the ladder down. In less than 2 weeks, the crypto market lost nearly $1.3 trillion for a 49% drawdown - brutal. Almost the entire years’ worth of steady gains was wiped out in a two-week span and not even the majors could hide; Bitcoin lost about half of its market cap from the bloodshed.
The best and simplest thing a convicted and principled investor can do is follow their plan in a responsible way. If your game plan is to hold for 10 years, then do nothing; if your game plan is to buy the blood, then get aggressive; if your game plan is to buy the rumors and sell the news… you get the gist. None of these options are comfortable, if they were, everyone would do them and they wouldn't work. This will pass, just stick to your plan.
Ray Dalio Buys Bitcoin
All the latests news on Crypto, Blockchain, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tokens, ICOs, Fintech, and more.
Add another billionaire to the ranks of people who own Bitcoin. Ray Dailo, who recently said that he thought Bitcoin was risky and would be banned by the government, is now on our team. Good.
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