The Wolf Den #236 - Think Like A Whale
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to chop sideways and consolidate, allowing a number of altcoins to make sizable moves. I still see no reason to be focusing on Bitcoin for the moment, these are subpar conditions for traders on almost any time frame. That said, things looks fine and the correction looks likely to be in the past, a result of nothing more than massive leverage liquidations.
DAILY CHART
I still love this chart, which shows all of the corrections this year where people started screaming that it was the top and that Bitcoin's run was over. Since the local bottom, we now have 3 bullish engulfing candles, shown with the blue arrows, the most recent being yesterday's candle. We want to see follow through to the upside, but it's clear that since this local bottom we have seen every down daily candle followed by a massive bullish candle. That's encouraging.
On almost every time frame, price is at a significant area of resistance. Nothing comes easy in places like this.
4-HOUR CHART
This is the stuff of horror movies for traders. Drops down followed by an immediate retracement, "Bart Simpson" type price action etc. That said, the inverse head and shoulders, break and retest of the blue descending resistance, and flip of the 50 and 200 MAs back to support are all still valid and bullish signals. The red box shows the "golden pocket," an area of strong resistance after any meaningful drop. Bitcoin loves to struggle at the 61.8% fib and in the golden pocket, the area from there to the 65% retracement. Price needs to push through that convincingly. A golden cross of the 50 and 200 MAs looks possible, so watch for that if you are an MA trader.
HOURLY CHART
I rarely zoom in this far, but price action has been sideways so often we can gather some information on lower time frames. I shared the breakout from the blue channel yesterday. Price pushed into the local red area of resistance, consolidated in another small flag and is pushing. $58,986 (basically 59K) seems to really be the key level at the top of resistance on almost every time frame. I want to see price back above that convincingly. For now, that would probably be the target of a small scalp, if that's your style.
Altcoin Charts
I often share trade setups when the market is looking solid. To be clear, these are setups, NOT SIGNALS. I never share something and say "buy now." I try to provide some ideas of what might happen so that you are are ready in advance to make a plan. Many setups never come to fruition which is absolutely fine - no trigger, no trade. The ones that do come to be are laid out in advance. Use these ideas in your own system, but never copy them.
Those who were here know that I was far ahead of the curve on the large cap moves that we have seen, including BNB, ETH and LTC.
1INCH
Seemingly every time I make a video mocking the name of 1Inch, it immediately strikes back with bullish movement. When we looked at it on the livestream yesterday, it was chopping sideways in the blue range. Now it has broken out of the range on strong volume, a bullish signal of likely continuation, especially in context of the descending resistance breakout on the left of the chart that is yet to reach its target at the recent highs. Price was rejected, predictably, in the golden pocket between the 61.8% and 65% levels.
At this point, I would be looking for a retest of the range highs and the 50% level as support, which should technically hold. We all know that charts are just guesses, so nothing is guaranteed, but odds are in favor of that area being strong if price comes back down to test it.
I always spread smaller orders around, and never place them directly on the line. This helps avoid getting front run if it never comes all of the way back down to support. The general area would be 11800 to 11100 for me.
ATOM/BTC
I was looking at this on the livestream yesterday and drew the descending resistance and the small blue bull flag that was forming, consolidating against resistance. Sure enough, price pushed through on decent volume. It also basically retested that descending line as support, which is bullish.
4516 is strong resistance, so ideally I would like to see price trading above that if you did not already buy the breakout. The target of this move is simply 5440, with the larger target from the bigger breakout on the left still in play at 7650.
DIA/BTC
I have been watching this one since the break of descending resistance, which was a nice entry for those trading it. That said, price was rejected at 933, the top of that local descending resistance and a key swing high. At this point, you want to see that flipped to support before entering. If that does not happen, the demand zone below would be a great potential entry on a retrace. These are just ideas of what could happen and areas I would be interesting in trading a setup like this.
DOGE, LINK, ETC
I made a video about these three coins, as all three continued to new all time highs on their USD pairs. You can see my thoughts on all three coins and potential trade ideas in the video.
TRX/BTC
I have shared this setup on the weekly chart more times than I care to count. This looks exactly like LTC did before its breakout, like ETH did months ago etc. This is a large cap that has only moved a bit, has broken descending resistance and is retesting it successfully as support on a large time frame. This could take weeks. Or months. But technically, this looks poised for a massive move to the upside. It will likely require patience.
Legacy Markets
XAG (SILVER)
Assuming dollar weakness, metals should continue to perform well and offer another hedge alongside Bitcoin, although one that is less sexy. We have had a number of monster silver trades since I started the newsletter, and I most recently shared the break of the descending line and the flip of this rangeEQ (the center dashed line) to support. That looks strong, so this should be targeting the top of the green trading range around $29.80. I buy physical silver but also trade this on forex.com.
We can also see a local flip of resistance to support at $26.456.
Chart Requests
We once again saw well over 100 chart requests. My team chose the most popular ones and I looked them - over 40 charts in 80 minutes in alphabetical order. Enjoy!
Make My Charts Your Own!
When I share a chart link, it is possible for you to make the chart your own so that you can adapt my ideas, track the trade and add lines and patterns of your own! If you click on any of the links below (or my charts in any other newsletter), you will see the following list of items on the bottom right of the chart. Click on the bullhorn, which is the second one from the right, shown below.
After you have clicked on that icon, the below screen will appear. You click the big blue box that says “Make It Mine!” Now you can do whatever you want with the chart. I just ask that you do not share them publicly as your own, especially with my colors and style. These ideas are for you and you alone.
Hundreds Of U.S. Banks Have Their Eyes Set On Bitcoin
According to NYDIG, a massive crypto custody firm, “hundreds of U.S. banks will soon allow customers to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin through their existing accounts as soon as this year.” Curious as to how NYDIG knows this? Right now, hundreds of banks are enrolled in a program hosted by Fidelity that’s enabling the banks to offer Bitcoin in the coming months. The banks enrolled are reportedly smaller to mid-tier branches, but discussions with larger household names are also taking place behind the scenes.
Banks are currently stuck sitting on their handsm watching PayPal, Coinbase, Robinhood and other major platforms capture billions of the dollars that are flowing into this already $2t market. If they don't act soon, they are setting themselves up to miss one of the most epic financial opportunities in history.
Join us or get left behind.
More Bitcoin Added To Corporate Balance Sheets
MercadoLibre, one of Latin American largest e-commerce and fintech companies, purchased $7.8 million in Bitcoin. Their only official statement on the decision was, “as part of our treasury strategy this quarter we purchased $7.8 million in bitcoin, a digital asset that we are disclosing within our indefinite-lived intangible assets.” Taking a closer look at their balance sheet, they held $862m in cash and cash equivalent assets in Q1. Their Bitcoin holdings are slightly under 1% of this cash reserve. Nonetheless, this purchase is still a step in the right direction. I predict that companies will initially lean towards a small initial 1% purchase and then fall into a comfortable 3%-5% allocation range which will become the standard.
China’s Hashrate Is Dropping
China has always been known as the dominant mining force, holding a majority of the Bitcoin hash power. Recent reports indicate that the power is shifting out of the country. F2, the second-largest bitcoin mining pool in the world, for the first time reported that mining from outside of China surpassed mining from inside of China. Other pools are also starting to recognize a strengthening shift in the U.S. presence and a weakening output from China. Not only is the world slowly picking up the pace of mining, but China is also facing its own internal struggles over industry regulation, crackdowns, and power issues. Long-term, the dissemination of Bitcoin's mining power is bullish for achieving truer decentralization and a censorship-resistant network
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Jamie Rogozinski
About 10 years ago, a subreddit formed around a shared interest in volatile stocks and high-risk strategies. Claiming the name WallStreetBets, the community attracted millions of ambitious investors and traders, ready to stick it to Wall Street and beat them at their own game. This culminated in the now infamous GameStop gamma squeeze. Jaime Rogozinski, the founder of WSB, discusses the intimate details of the GameStop saga and his meteoric ascent to Hollywood in the aftermath.
Follow Jaime Rogozinski: https://twitter.com/wallstreetbets
This episode explores:
WallStreetBets internationally
Going long on GameStop
Meme stock traders
Robinhood warriors
Short squeezing Wall Street
The Roaring Kitty
Retail breaking the system
Finding Wall Street’s cheat code
The Coinbase listing
Arbitrage trading
Bringing the gamma squeeze to Hollywood
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.