The Wolf Den #225 - National TV
The DOGE Frenzy From IntoTheBlock
In this report, we bring to you the latest in on-chain cryptocurrency analysis. We look at the blockchain directly and analyze balances, transactions, and the overall activity of market participants. This gives us a unique insight into the future of the market.
This section is written in conjunction with IntoTheBlock (ITB). ITB is an intelligence company that leverages machine learning and advanced statistics to extract intelligent signals tailored to crypto-assets. IntoTheBlock tackles one of the hardest problems in crypto: to provide investors with a view of a crypto asset that goes beyond price and volume data.
The Wolf Den research team uses IntoTheBlock to dig deeper and get the most important insights about the crypto market.
The DOGE Frenzy
While Bitcoin, Ethereum and the Coinbase IPO faded from the spotlight, some altcoins and especially the Elon Musk favorite talking point meme DOGE stepped up, as it saw a rally of 101% over the past 24 hours and claimed the 6th place in the top crypto-assets by market cap.
Benefiting from this wave and propelled by its relentless community, DOGE has outperformed broader crypto markets with a return of over 15,000% in one year.
Using some of the top IntoTheBlock's indicators, we will illustrate the great momentum that Dogecoin is experiencing in the current crypto bull run.
The recent Dogecoin momentum brought a high amount of speculation into the market, as the number of addresses holding Dogecoin for under one month — classified by IntoTheBlock as traders — reached record highs this month, and is up more than 48% over the past 30 days. This metric points to high amounts of speculation and short-term trading taking place over the past few months based on blockchain data.
As of April 21 using IntoTheBlock's DOGE Ownership Analytics
The new wave of investors was also reflected in the network activity, as the number of daily active addresses reached its highest number since January of 2014, with over 297 thousand active addresses on April 16.
As of April 21 using IntoTheBlock's DOGE Network Analytics
DAAs tend to be correlated with price activity. As such, DAAs can often add as a leading indicator for price action as can be seen in the graph above.
And with the recent market momentum, caught the attention of the derivatives traders, especially for perpetual swaps, which are future contracts that don’t expire and manage to keep contract prices close to spot prices through what is known as a funding rate.
As of April 21 using IntoTheBlock's DOGE Derivatives Analytics
Since the DOGE rally started on April 12, the volume of the perpetual swaps increased by 1877%, reaching a new all-time high today of a staggering $69 billion last Friday. The volume of these futures is only surpassed by Bitcoin. How's that for a measure of speculation?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Nothing has changer here since yesterday. I am still leaning bullish because of the long wicks down on each daily candle and the potential higher low. Yesterday's candle was potentially a bullish hammer after that spinning top, so I will be watching for another hammer today.
4-HOUR CHART
Also the same as yesterday. Holding the top half of the red range which is short term bullish. Needs to flip the top of that range and EQ of the blue range to support to give confidence of a reversal.
I still do not see a clear pattern formed in this consolidation - not clear bear flag, pennant, triangle. But on the negative side, we do have decreasing volume (although rising a bit now) while consolidating, which could mean bearish consolidation before another move down
We did have a bit of confirmed hidden bearish divergence with RSI. These are generally weak signals, but always worth noting. That would signal more downside coming, if we don't see a bull div or hidden bull div soon. Again, weak signals on the hidden divs.
Altcoin Charts
DOT/BTC
We had a nice trade on this on the break of the descending resistance and it hit the target at the previous highs before a savage rejection and drop. Now DOT has come back down to test support and looks ready for a trip back up. There are a few potential trades here. First would be to buy now or closer to support if it happens and target the recent highs. The second would be a break of the recent highs and then a retest as support, looking for much higher prices in price discovery.
Yesterday's candle was a nice hammer, a sign of a potential reversal and today's is shaping up as the same so far.
LINK/USD
This was an idea that I shared on twitter last Friday - before the Bitcoin correction. That said, it landed right in demand (which was the best entry) and now looks to be holding above the previous all time high as support. I feel good about this above $36.92, and have shown the target of the bull pennant breakout, around $64.
This is ALL dependent on Bitcoin, as it is a USD pair, but if BTC rises or remains sideways, I think this is quite possible.
IRS Clarifies Taxes On Hard Forks
When a cryptocurrency hard forks, the blockchain splits in two, and holders of that coin receive a new token. Bitcoin’s hard fork in 2017 brought about an interesting tax implication for Bitcoin Cash recipients. Do you pay when the fork happened or when you received the token? Coinbase users had to wait 5 months until they gained access to their tokens. Other exchanges and platforms were distributing BCH within days and weeks.
An official memorandum from the IRS clarified the dilemma by examining two possible situations.
“Situation 1: A received 1 unit of Bitcoin Cash at the time of the hard fork and had dominion and control over that unit as evidenced by A’s ability to sell, exchange, or transfer the Bitcoin Cash. A has ordinary income in the 2017 taxable year equal to the fair market value of the Bitcoin Cash as of August 1, 2017, at 9:16 a.m., EDT.”
“Situation 2: B did not have dominion and control over any Bitcoin Cash at the time of the hard fork, and therefore did not receive any income from the hard fork at that time. On January 1, 2018, at 1:00 p.m., EDT, CEX initiated support of Bitcoin Cash, allowing B—for the first time—to sell, transfer, or exchange B’s 1 unit of Bitcoin Cash. B has ordinary income in the 2018 taxable year equal to the fair market value of the Bitcoin Cash as of January 1, 2018, at 1:00 p.m.”
When you first gain control over the token (the ability to sell or trade) is when you are now responsible for taxes on the asset. I assume this rule sets precedent for airdrops, rewards, and distributions as well.
WeWork Adds Bitcoin To The Balance Sheet
Coinbase becomes WeWork’s first member company to pay in cryptocurrency
The American real estate company that provides shared office spaces has announced a move towards crypto adoption. In addition to holding cryptocurrency on its balance sheet, it will also accept payments and make payments in BTC, ETH, USDC, PAX, and additional unannounced cryptos. To make all of this possible, WeWork partnered with Coinbase and Bitpay, two of the top companies leading the charge in institutional adoption.
Bitcoin Outflows Continue
One of the most bullish metrics to watch in a bull run is the rate of Bitcoin outflows off of exchanges. Typically, Bitcoin moving to an exchange is an early sign of imminent selloffs, and leaving an exchange is a sign of movement to cold storage and long-term hodling. It may feel like Bitcoin has been stuck at its current price levels, but behind the scenes, outflows are continuing each day, decreasing the total number of Bitcoins available for sale. Here are a few facts that really matter:
“Binance exchange registered one of the highest outflows of Bitcoin on the day of the recent sell-off.”
“Coinbase Pro outflows are occurring at a rate of roughly 10,000 or more Bitcoin per week, each week, since the bull market began.”
“Exchange reserves have declined about 12% since Bitcoin’s recent range.”
Clubhouse Pivots To NFTs
Clubhouse, the polarizing app that has seen it's fair share of controversy, is pivoting to NFTs to help monetize content.
"BlockhouseCH will seek to leverage the Company’s strong network to bring together leading artists, influencers, and experts in personal finance, cryptocurrency investing, and the NFT marketplace. In addition, through BlockhouseCH, the Company intends to tokenize content from in-house creators to be marketed on platforms such as rally.io. It will also attempt to identify opportunities centered on promising digital artwork that can be acquired, tokenized, and marketed, with the Company’s powerful influencer network helping to market such items."
Crowny - Rewards + Privacy
Crowny connects and rewards users for engaging with their favorite brands, ensuring brands reach the right target audience, while protecting users' privacy.
Users receive relevant content and offers based on their personal preferences, allowing them to earn $CRWNY and loyalty points based on these preferences.
- Allows Users to Connect, Engage, and Earn by Interacting with their Favourite Brands
- Allows those brands to connect and engage with their target audience with ease
- This allows users to avoid unnecessary ads, taking back control of their time and data through Crowny app (yet to launch)
- Loyalty Program are offered for FREE to brands and are build on Solana (cheap & fast - best user experience)
- $CRWNY will later migrate to Solana through a wormhole
- Received Serum Grant
You read more about Crowny, which launches today, in the medium article above.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.