The Wolf Den #221 - Analysis Vs. Trading
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
1INCH/BTC
Nothing has changed from yesterday. The buy box was hit at the previous all time high and price is still trading above. Looks bullish to me, will revisit if price ends up back in the range for a sustained period. To me, this is in price discovery and the long wicks down show real buying demand in this area.
COIN (COINBASE)
Altcoin Charts
1INCH/BTC
This broke out before I had a chance to share, but still looks very promising. We still have the higher targets at the top of the chart from the break of the blue line, but I expect some resistance at 11383 (top of resistance and 50% retracement) and around 112775 at the 61.8% fib. These are just areas, not exact lines, but they can also serve as targets for shorter term trades.
I like that price is currently flipping the 50 MA on the 4 hour to support. I would personally have stops around 8480, below the recent lows. If you are scalping, you can use a tighter stop a bit below the 50 MA, but that is much more likely to get swept on a wick.
This is all dependent on Bitcoin chilling and going sideways for a bit, so always proceed with caution right now on BTC pair setups.
TRX/BTC
I have shared this at least 3 times. This is the last time (maybe). Perfect break and retest of the descending resistance here on the weekly chart. It may move slowly, but this is a beautiful setup.
The daily chart shows that price is rounding out nicely, with a cup formed for a potential cup and handle. That's just an idea and would require price to now consolidate a bit in a flag or pennant. It could just continue up without doing that, which is likely. Regardless, this looks done consolidating bullishly after the recent move up on the daily.
YFI/BTC
This was a chart request yesterday, and it looked so good that I took note to include it in today's newsletter. This looks almost the same as the Solana charts I posted repeatedly - a beautiful break of descending resistance., tap of the 50 MA and descending support and local demand. SOL went nuts after, so I am expecting this to continue to rise, even though the best entry was CLEARLY down below a bit. Targets for me are the black lines and the 200 MA above, but I think if we get a real alt run this can go much higher.
Again, all depends on Bitcoin.
Legacy Markets
COIN (COINBASE)
This is a ONE MINUTE CHART, so please don't draw any grand conclusions. I just wanted to point out the initial pump as retail FOMOd in on the open, and then the quick and sustained dump soon after. This looks exactly like the launch of a small cap on Uniswap, so the same phenomena exist in any market where there are eager buyers and willing sellers.
I actually bought some COIN stock yesterday with a cost basis around $328 - to be a part of history and to start a longer term position. It's impossible to technically know what is happening here, but I do believe in the company long term and I think that the present valuation around 65B is very low. They are projected to make 7B this year, which puts the current valuation at less than 10X yearly earnings. Many tech companies are being priced at 20-30X.
XAG (SILVER)
I remain bullish on silver, even though it is trading a bit below my most recent entry and setup. As you can see, it is ranging but breaking through the local descending resistance which should signal a move to the range highs in the coming weeks. Ideally, it's safer to wait until the EQ (the dashed line in the middle) is flipped to support.
If you believe the dollar is weak and will slowly drop (I do) then silver is a good bet to continue up.
I trade metals with VERY LONG time horizons, so keep that in mine.
Chart Requests
Here are the chart requests from yesterday. The market was looking rough when we took a look at the charts - and then turned around right after the stream, as is tradition!
$1INCH $AGI $AKT $AVA $BAO $BNT $BTT $CHAIN $CHSB $DENT $DUSK $ELA $ENJ $ERN $FIL $FOXF $FTM $FTT $GLM $GT $HBAR $INJ $KNC $LPX $LRC $LUNA $MANA $MATIC $MIST $MOB $OCEAN $OMG $ORAI $PRQ $PTF $RAY $REN $RUNE $SAKE $SNGLS $SOL $SOV $SPI $SUSHI $SXP $SYS $TEL $TRX $TVK $UAL $UNI $UTK $VET $VRA $XEM $XTZ $YFI $ZEC
Gary Gensler Has Been Appointed
After a majority Senate vote, Gary Gensler was finally confirmed as the top financial regulator at the SEC. This news was expected and is just a formality, but hopefully this is the start of a new era that paints crypto in a positive light. This appointment speeds up the possibility of an ETF approval, increased clarity, and new sensible regulation in the space. Just yesterday, I covered Hester Peirce’s Token Safe Harbor Proposal which will probably soon find its way to Gensler’s desk. The future is looking bright
Early Coinbase Investor Becomes Mega Millionaire
Garry Tan was an early believer in Brian Armstrong and his fledgling Coinbase product back in 2012, before the name was even Coinbase. Tan encouraged Armstrong, sending him motivational messages and advice back when Coinbase was just an experiment. Putting his money where his mouth was, Tan pledged a few hundred thousand dollars to Armstrong, maintaining a relationship throughout the company’s epic run. That small investment from his VC firm turned into $680m yesterday, a return that any venture capitalist would dream to secure.
The story is heart-warming and a reminder of what really is at stake in this financial revolution. Tan spotted an opportunity that could change the world years ago, and with a little bit of money and kindness won what he calls “the golden ticket.” Most people in the space won't walk away millionaires, but that golden ticket is still out there and achievable for everyone. All it takes is a little bit of money, kindness, and a vision. The full story is linked above.
EGLD Holders Are Receiving $MPAD Tokens
Just a few days ago, Elrond announced the distribution of their $MEX token for Elrond Gold holders to claim. Yesterday, they announced their newest development, the Elrond Launchpad for “bringing some of the most ambitious blockchain projects in the world, using Elrond technology.” Fueling this launchpad will be the $MPAD token. Official information is limited, but I can share what is below.
“Through a wide distribution model, all eGold holders will be able to claim a fair share of its supply. The precise details of the MPAD token and distribution will be shared in the next 2 weeks, amplifying the outreach, exposure, and contribution to the Elrond economy.” The $MPAD token and $MEX token are two claimable tokens only through the Elrond ecosystem.
If you’re like me and want to claim both of these tokens, now is the time to prepare for the snapshot and distribution. You must hold your $EGLD on the Maiar app or official Elrond Wallet to be eligible. This isn't the last of the snapshots, according to an official comment, “it’s time to build. And time to get more eGold ready. More snapshots are coming.”
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. John Wu
Since John Wu’s first appearance on the podcast, Avalanche Protocol, alongside Avalanche Labs, has snowballed into a multi-billion dollar network. But this is only the beginning with Wu’s goal to unlock hundreds of trillions of illiquid assets trapped in financial systems. He envisions not only to put the world into second gear but at the same time, improve the lives of those who haven’t been given a fair chance financially. For once the individual can become financially empowered, and not be at the beck and call of governments or powerful corporations.
Follow John Wu: https://twitter.com/John1wu
In this episode, we discuss a range of topics including:
Digitizing $700 trillion in assets
Miami as the crypto hub
The printing press and internet 1.0
Worthless risk-adjusted yield
Ava Labs complimenting Ethereum
Hiring more lawyers than employees
The death of the dollar and replacing banks
Self-empowerment through crypto
Trillions sitting on corporate balance sheets
Early investing in web 2.0
NFTs and musicians
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.