The Wolf Den #217 - Supply Side Shock
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
4-HOUR CHART
Not much has changed. Price seems to have broken through the 50 MA on the 4-hour and is coming back for a retest. Will be worth watching whether it holds. Otherwise, still consolidating below the recent highs, waiting to make a move.
HOURLY CHART
I generally do not trade based on the hourly chart, just wanted to show you something... the bottom of this move was easily caught with an oversold bullish divergence with RSI. The top shows a bearish divergence (not overbought) which still remains valid until we see divergence the other way. We could see a bit more downside, but hourly divs are only good for short moves and this drop could already be it. We will see. Watch for a hidden bull div to develop.
Altcoin Charts
1INCH, BNB, FTT, RUNE and SOL are all going nuts on the recent entries, feeling good that those will continue and should be "buy the dip" coins if the opportunity arrives.
AVAX/USDT
This looks ready to break out, although you should not trade it until it does, with volume. Right now this is AT RESISTANCE. You do not buy resistance.
This retraced the recent pump to the golden pocket, between the 61.8% and 65% levels. It has consolidated in a bull pennant. There's a lot to like here, but we need to see that breakout! If that happens, this should absolutely fly. It is also flipping the 50 MA back to support.
If it breaks the ascending support, watch for a potential bull flag to form. Still, the safest trade is a break and/or retest of that descending resistance.
Depending where you start the flagpole and where it breaks out, targets are shown.
MATIC/BTC
Run it back, Turbo.
I posted this the other day, but ultimately it was rejected at resistance. It's taking another shot now at a breakout, also popping up off of horizontal support. There is a death cross of the 50 and 200 MAs happening, not a signal I usually trade. But I would not enter this until price is above both of those lines to be sure.
The recent drop also gave this a perfect retracement into the golden pocket, between the 61.8% and 65% levels.
This looks ready to head back up, just keep an eye on those MAs.
A Case Study On How Early We Are
By Adam Tarlowski:
While looking at the top 100 coins on CoinGecko vs. CoinMarketCap, I noticed the two lists began to strongly vary the further I moved down the list. While looking at token #99 on CoinGecko called $AMP, I noticed it had a market cap of $1b. CoinMarketCap had the market cap at $290m. This $700m was enough to catch my interest and to drive me to conduct a search for answers.
Both sites define market cap as “circulating supply x current price.” The current prices of $AMP were listed the same, but there was a disagreement on the circulating supply on each website. CoinGecko shows that it arrived at the circulating supply of $36b by subtracting the tokens held in Gemini and Coinbase Custody from the total supply. CoinMarketCap did not reveal any specifics on its circulating supply estimate of $10b.
I went to Amp’s discord to ask about their market cap and was provided with an amount slightly higher than what was listed on CoinGecko. The difference between the market caps results in the coin being ranked #99 and #243 on the different sites. There are a couple of issues here that need to be discussed.
First, this issue isn't unique to just this project, this is just the coin I happened to examine more closely. Second, this is how misinformation spreads. It wouldn't be a big deal if the numbers were off by a little, but a $700m difference is a very big gap. Lastly, major disagreements like this show how much more maturing this space has left to do. You don't see differences like this across legacy exchanges. In crypto this is typical. The issue likely either boils down to the additional supply being locked in more custodians that CoinGecko has failed to account for, or CoinMarketCap has mistakenly categorized the circulating supply, undershooting the actual value.
Whether this is the result of a glitch, disagreement on calculations, or blatant misinformation does not matter. What matters is finding an accurate truth. Every project will continue to cite the higher of the two numbers until the disagreement ends, because a higher ranking is more beneficial. Take this case study as proof that we are still early in the development of the space - so early that the 2 largest trackers disagree by $700m.
5 Tactics For Finding Focus
By Sahil Bloom:
Focus is a competitive advantage. But in a noisy world, it is increasingly difficult to find.
5 tactics for finding focus in your career, startup, or life:
Eliminate Low-Value Decisions - Mark Zuckerberg is famous for having only one outfit in his closet. While an extreme example, there is a lesson here: eliminate decisions that require energy but do not create commensurate value. Redeploy that energy into high-value decisions.
Sprint Then Rest - The human mind is not designed to be "on" at all times. It needs rest. Work in short blocks (1-2 hours max). You can schedule the blocks - I call it "deep work" on my calendar - or leave yourself more flexibility. Use biology to your advantage: sprint then rest.
Sleep Tight- It may seem contrarian in the hustle culture era, but deep, restful sleep is critical to finding focus. I am a culprit. I used to say I would "sleep when I was dead" - I've changed my mind. Better sleep is perhaps the single greatest unlock for your performance.
Noise Cancellation The world is noisy. We are constantly being hit by stimuli competing for our attention. Learn to tune out and zone in. Noise-canceling headphones can be an unimaginably helpful tool. Find your "in the zone" soundtrack and play it on repeat.
Train Your Mind
We train our bodies, why not our minds? Practice meditation - start with 5 minutes a day and build up from there. There are plenty of great apps to help you get started. You'll find yourself better able to process daily stressors and focus on the task at hand.
These are 5 tactics for finding focus.
What are some others you would add to the list?
The Top 100 Coins All Hit $1b Market Cap
The top 100 coins on CoinGecko by market capitalization all reached a $1b market cap as of last night. Sooner or later, the top 200 coins will also probably reach this milestone because rank #200 only needs about a 3.3x increase in price to hit $1b. Currently, all boats are rising with the tide, but many of these companies won't be able to sustain these levels. Many will probably fall back into the millions and then all the way to 0 after being wiped out by the next bear market.
Riot Blockchain Acquires Whinstone US
Riot Blockchain, one of the US’s top mining companies, acquired Whinstone - North America’s largest Bitcoin hosting facility. The deal includes their “attractive long-term power purchase agreement.” Right now, succeeding in the mining game isn't a matter of who has more cash, it's all about total machines. The mining companies are ready to buy machines, but there simply aren't enough being produced to meet the demand.
Currently, an acquisition is one of the only available options for these large companies to obtain more miners. There are only a few major miners in the U.S. and according to the acquisition news, “Riot will wholly own the largest Bitcoin mining facility in North America and utilize Whinstone to establish themselves as the leading Bitcoin miner in the U.S.”
If you aren't bullish on Riot, here’s something to think about; in February, Morgan Stanley disclosed they owned 771,399 shares of Riot and JP Morgan added Riot to their crypto exposure basket. JP Morgan didn't add any other mining company and they made Riot their 3rd largest holding at a 15% weight. Do with this information what you will.
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