The Wolf Den #211 - Fear And Greed
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is doing absolutely nothing, which is fine. I just searched the charts and could not find a single thing to discuss that we have not already been over. This is still what I am watching.
Altcoin Charts
EGLD/USDT
We looked at this setup on the livestream and I noticed that it is currently breaking resistance. The bull flag is not "perfect," but the idea is correct and we had a beautiful retest of that descending black line at the same point where the flag completed. Target is shown based on the length of the flag pole, assuming the breakout is confirmed with a candle close above resistance
ETH/BTC
I have been sharing this since we had that bullish SFP below the blue line and breakout of the descending line. Now it's moving away from support beautifully. Keep your eye on Ethereum, everything is lining up for a nice run which could also mean alts do very well.
ETH/USD
Boom goes the dynamite. I have been posting this for ages, and we had the clean break of resistance on RSI before the breakout by price. Textbook stuff here. The pattern of this breakout is roughly $3600. Here is a video explaining my thoughts from two days ago, if you missed it.
MINT/USD
Contract: 0x0cdf9acd87e940837ff21bb40c9fd55f68bba059
This is an update to a recent trade idea. The trigger was to be either a touch down on support or a break of the top of the flag, which still has not happened. We now have the bounce off of both horizontal support and the bottom of the flag. Of course this could break down, but this offers incredible risk reward. I actually took this trade myself on Uniswap. I took a small position because there are no stop losses, but I would still likely exit if this goes below the recent lows. The safest entry is still a break of the flag, but I like this bounce for now.
This chart is on DexTools, I cannot share a link.
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Bitcoin’s HODL Ratio
The HODL Ratio sounds ridiculous, but some serious math goes into calculating its value. Ultimately, the HODL Ratio identifies extremes in market psychology to identify cycle highs and lows. As shown in the tweet above, the current HODL ratio is at similar levels to when Bitcoin’s price was between $3K-$4K back in 2017. Back when Bitcoin was at this HODL Ratio level, it did about a 5x in price to hit its all-time high. By extrapolating where the ratio is headed, this tool provides strong confluence for some of the models I have shared in the newsletter that average to a predicted $230,000 top. As the bull run continues, I plan to share more metrics to better inform you where we are in the cycle. From my perspective, this is another data set revealing we are still early. Below is an official explanation about the ratio:
It achieves this by analyzing Realized Value HODL waves that are made up of coins that have last moved recently on a short time frame (the past week) versus Realized Value HODL waves made up of coins that last moved much further in the past and on a longer time frame (1–2 years ago).
It then also calibrates for the principle that due to Lindy Effect it becomes easier for HODL’ers to HODL over time, and also to account for lost coins. It does this by multiplying the Realized HODL Ratio result by the number of days since the data set started. I start my data set in August 2010 around the time an exchange-listed price for Bitcoin began to operate.
The resulting indicator highlights when shorter-term Realized HODL waves are worth considerably more or less versus longer-term Realized HODL waves. Which in turn highlights the major cycle tops of Bitcoin’s price cycles with great accuracy and consistency…within 1 week of the market topping for each cycle
Read more HERE
BlackRock’s Pathetic Bitcoin Trade
An SEC filing on BlackRock, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, revealed they held just 37 Bitcoin futures contracts through the CME. The gains they made on the contracts equaled 6.12 Bitcoin, basically dust. Their attempt at “dabbling” in crypto is equivalent to a first-time crypto user sending a test amount. I doubt the multi-trillion-dollar asset manager filed 2 documents with the SEC to hold “0.00142%” of their fund in speculative paper Bitcoin. According to the CIO, BlackRock was “starting to dabble a bit,” but they have clearly barely lifted a finger. Either they had a change of heart or are simply testing their systems before participating. I believe the latter is true.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce Says Bitcoin ETF Coming Soon
In a recent interview with Forbes, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce was asked about an ETF. “My view has been that we’re overdue on approving one of these things. I also think we’ve dug ourselves into a bit of a difficult hole by setting standards for approval that are difficult to figure out how to satisfy. So I really don’t know where we’re going to go.”
U.S. bureaucracy and red tape aren't new, especially when it comes to modern-day fintech. Some of the articles reporting on her bullish statements failed to mention that the SEC is comprised of multiple commissioners. Her statements aren't reflective of the opinions of everyone in charge, nor the acting chair of the agency. Nonetheless, she is on our side and holds a strong influence over the agency. Peirce will serve until 2025, leaving plenty of time to push an ETF through.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Peter Wall
Mining is a vital part of the Bitcoin ecosystem but is often mischaracterized and misunderstood by even seasoned crypto investors. Mining expert and Argo Blockchain CEO Peter Wall came on the show to break down all things mining. In this episode, Wall dispels the many myths surrounding the industry, revealing how the process actually works and giving a look behind the scenes. As the first mining expert on the show, this is an extremely illuminating conversation on this often reclusive sector.
In this episode, Melker and Wall discuss a range of topics including:
Mining myths
Renewable vs non-renewable mining
A shortage of Bitcoin mining rigs
Mining all the Bitcoin
Miner capitulation
A good crypto citizen
Adjusting for difficulty and halvings
Managing massive facilities
Hydroelectric mining
A premium on virgin Bitcoin
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.