The Wolf Den #203 - Don't Follow The Herd
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Context matters.
Quite a few people have said the weekly candle that just closed is a hammer... and bullish.
When that candle is at the top, it is more of a "hanging man" and actually leans more bearish than bullish. If you had the same candle in a downtrend, it would be a hammer and a bullish sign of a likely reversal.
That said, it's nothing until the next candle closes. I am not worried about it for the moment, and we need 6 more days to see if it confirms.
Here is a bit more on the hanging man.
12 HOUR CHART
We had a bearish divergence recently, which has now been invalidated with a hidden bullish divergence. Hidden divs are somewhat weak signals, but technically this should indicate more upside is incoming.
4 HOUR CHART
This seems to be the prevailing local pattern for the moment. A symmetrical triangle, which in this case could be qualified as a "bull pennant." This is the case when the pattern forms after a move up.
That said, I ALWAYS talk about the fact that pennant often lose support and become flags - parallel channels. That tends to shake a lot of longs out of their positions without the bias actually changing bearish, so be careful of something like that happening here. Regardless, the trade on this pattern or. a flag would be a break of the top resistance.
Altcoin Charts
EGLD/BTC
This appears to finally be breaking the key descending resistance in blue. We have been watching for this for a while, and want to see a clean close above that line. We had a candle fake out a break out yesterday and wick above before closing below. Key levels are marked, so you know where likely targets and resistance are. I am very bullish on this project - if you are trading the BTC pair, this is the potential entry we have been watching for.
UDO/USDT
Unido is making a similar pattern to a lot of the new Uniswap alts before a major breakout. A drop at the beginning from the bots, then a rounding bottom and then a break up. We saw this on Ethernity before its epic run - I hope you guys caught that one, by the way. What a beast!
I want to see this break the white line and close above ideally. Then sky is the limit. That is at .881. I charted this on DexTools and cannot include a link, hence the picture.
Be CAREFUL. Uniswap coins have no stop losses, trade with a small position size. Remember also - this is AT RESISTANCE right now after a large move. So some retracement or consolidation would be no surprise.
Contract address: 0xea3983fc6d0fbbc41fb6f6091f68f3e08894dc06
XRP/BTC
I don't personally trade XRP, but this is technically a nice potential breakout of a long consolidation phase and resistance. It's also at horizontal resistance, so ideally you would like to see a close above that level before considering an entry. A retest of that line as support could be a nice spot.
I have minimal confidence trading this coin, because every time it seems ready to go up, there is heavy selling. Maybe this time is different. I am posting it because I know that many of you are still interested in XRP setups.
I would personally put stops below the recent lows if I was trading this. Resistance and targets are shown.
Legacy Markets
SIRI (SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS)
I first posted this setup in January, and literally the next day this stock pumped hard, almost 35% - and then immediately dropped to close the day. You can see the original trade idea with the path I drew, nothing has changed. It has continued to consolidate since, but did bounce right off of support as I was watching for. Further, it's now trading above the 50 and 200 MAs on the weekly, so that support bounce could be nice. A break of the ascending support and close below would be a signal to exit, and the safest entry is still a close above $6.73. Target of the ascending triangle is shown - I am choosing to ignore that one large wick because I saw that price action, but technically it made the ascending triangle idea less valid.
SkyBridge Founder Anthony Scaramucci Comments on Bitcoin
After announcing the SkyBridge Bitcoin Fund LP, Scaramucci has been outspoken on his Bitcoin beliefs across major media outlets. I wanted to share a few of his most notable quotes that resonate well with my beliefs.
“You’re in that transitory period. This is sort of like where Amazon was in 2000. People couldn’t believe its price movement. Then we looked at it again in 2009. There was a very big move over 12 years. Bitcoin is 12 years old. Yet if you bought Amazon after the 12th year, you got a 64X return on your money from 2009 to 2021… If you bought Amazon on the public offering May 15, 1997, the $10,000 that you put into it is worth $21,140,000 today, but Amazon now, 20 years later, is trading with more stability.”
“If you really study it, it’s better than gold. It’s easier to store. You can move it around more quickly and that value and that trusted network is growing. It’s 110 million now; by 2025, it’ll be at a billion, and if we’re right and it adapts pursuant to Metcalfe’s Law, you want to own some Bitcoin, and be prudent. You don’t have to own a lot of it, but just own some of it.”
India Is Cracking Down On Bitcoin (Again)
I’ve seen some FUD thrown around on how this could negatively impact the market if the proposed ban is passed. Since 2018, India’s government has been struggling to accept cryptocurrency, proposing bans and limiting interactions in the sector. I personally don't see an India ban as a big deal and I will explain why.
First, the market has shown no major concern price-wise. I'm aware the bill hasn't been approved, but investors know it’s on the table and what impact the ban would have. If approved, India’s crypto holders would be given 6 months to liquidate, meaning there wouldn't be a mad rush to sell crypto. If anything, hodlers would want to reap rewards in the coming months before offloading their bags. Also, you have to wonder how many wouldn't comply and how hard it would be to enforce this law. Lastly, India has about $1.4B in crypto. If all of the crypto in India was Bitcoin, that would only amount to about .1% of the total Bitcoin supply – nothing significant.
If other countries become inspired by India’s ban, this could become more of a concern, but this feels unlikely considering many countries are slowly doing the opposite. At most, the ban’s approval could cause a small blip in price or act as fuel for FUD when the market is already correcting. Personally, the India ban feels like a non-event and a huge missed opportunity for a country that could benefit from this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Coinbase Receives $6.5M Fine
A Coinbase investigation revealed that from 2015-2018, Coinbase failed to report two in-house trading bots that created false liquidity in the market. These bots were matching each other’s orders on the BTC/LTC pair when liquidity was low to boost the appearance of active trading to the public market. The result of the misconduct is three-fold - Coinbase pays a $6.5M fine, their public listing is now delayed until April (presumably to allow the bad news to pass), and lastly, it may scare other exchanges from pursuing their own IPO. 2015-2018 was still the “wild west” for crypto, and other exchanges may now be reconsider spotlighting their own previous actions.
Dexe.network
Defi social trading. Decentralized copying of successful traders
I introduced DeXe here many months ago when it was launching, and shared it on twitter as well. It has since pulled about a 30X+ price increase from the launch. Many of you have asked for this update, so I listened.
Here's a quick summary.
The DeXe Network is an ecosystem that brings together a range of capital management trading products for the DeFi environment. They describe it on twitter as "an online, decentralized and autonomous cryptocurrency assets portfolio environment." Their core offering is copy trading of successful wallets.
Since I last shared.
3 unique products released
Strong partnerships have been formed (Elrond, Nem, Pancake, Venus, Orion etc.)
Binance.com Listed DEXE
Started integrating to BSC
Official Binance Bridge done
Started Unboxing program, which is growing and scaling by releases and events
Here is more info on the new wallet.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.