The Wolf Den #199 - Use 2FA On Your Email
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Little has changed since yesterday for Bitcoin. We did see a bit more of a drop, but nothing too dramatic and without significant volume until the buying on the bottom. I purchased some Bitcoin on Voyager at around $54,700 at market on the drop - I paid a bit extra because they have a spread (prices are higher, but no fees so it's actually cheaper). This is an additional investment - just buying dips for the long run. I am looking at lower time fames here because the story hasn't changed much.
HOURLY CHART
Hourly divergences are only good for bounces, not necessarily signs of reversal. The lower the time frame, the less powerful. That said, you can see we had two bullish divergences with oversold RSI on this time frame which were good for quick long scalps if you were watching. Currently we have a hidden bearish divergence, which cancels the bull divs. Back to watching and waiting.
Price seems to have formed a descending channel, which should statistically break to the upside. A bearish pattern would be ascending or would be a triangle, so this is a good sign. Not a bear flag. A break of the top resistance should take price back up to around $58,000.
Altcoin Charts
I am still feeling quite hesitant with altcoins, even though some have been moving well. I remain conservative in what I share, and another sizable Bitcoin move in either direction could hurt alts. The 1Inch trade is right around the entry and ATOM is moving nicely, so those are both worth revisiting.
ERN/USDT
I shared this a week ago at $8. It is currently at $23 after topping around $35. Not bad! It looks ready to head up again. This is on DexTools that I am charting it, so I can't include a link, just an image.
This is on Uniswap, so be very careful. Here is the correct contract address:
0xbbc2ae13b23d715c30720f079fcd9b4a74093505
The setup is clear - a nice breakout from the consolidation after the recent move. Not much else to discuss!
Legacy Markets
F (FORD)
I should have posted this last week when I was first asked to look at it, but wasn't quite sure.
Ford looks very bullish, although it is presently right at resistance. Ideally I want to buy a drop to $12.15 if it happens, which would be a retest of support. A retest of the ascending blue line would also be a great entry. If neither of those happen, I will be watching for a clean break of $13.48 and will then be looking for a retest of that level as support as an entry.
Will Bitcoin Always Be The Best Bet?
Very interesting thread from Ari Paul. He is effectively making the case that, as time passes, the asymmetrical upside of betting on crypto is slightly reduced and balancing to other assets will be sensible. I tend to agree, based on the metrics and ideas provided, but still think there's a long way to go before Bitcoin becomes comparably in upside to other assets. Great points to consider.
Roll Token Drops 100% After Hack
After the private keys were compromised by a bad actor, all the Roll tokens on a developer hot wallet were drained, for a total of $5.7M. The token lost nearly 100% of its value from the sell-off to Ethereum, causing other similar social tokens to take massive collateral damage close to -100%. Luckily, a fund was set up to reimburse investors who lost money and the token rebounded well after the developer was able to recover coins in other cold storage locations.
This story may end up just being a close call for investors who lost money, but this is the exception, not the rule. Other protocols that lost 90% may not be reimbursing their investors, who saw a massive flash crash from the result of the hack. The lesson here is to be extremely careful with tokens outside the top 100 by market cap. Not that the top coins are necessarily better protected, it is just statistically less likely to see this happen against a larger cap coin. We are seeing this far too often.
ETH Held On Centralized Exchanges At All Time Low
This is a simple tale of supply and demand. The less ETH is held on exchanges, the less we can expect to be sold. With increased demand, the price should react positively. It's as simple as that. People are holding or using their ETH.
Polkalokr - Simplicity in DeFi
DeFi can be extremely complicated, and it often feels like each new protocol simply changes fancy words around, using creative definitions with each new product which don't feel much different. One of the reasons I am a fan of Polkadot is that their mission has always been extremely well articulated in their blogs, white paper, and lite paper. Polkalokr is an all-in-one multi-chain, token locking, and swapping platform built natively on Polkadot that eliminates DeFi’s largest error - humans. The team behind Polkalokr has realized that what is supposed to be decentralized is way too often failing at the expense of human error.
Through governance-as-a-service, Polkalokr is aiming to restore trust and simplicity to complex token ecosystems. With a multi-chain token escrow platform that puts token distribution into the hands of the network participants, Polkalokr offers investors, validators, and network participants a host of payout options, release schedules, and monetizing opportunities, without reliance on centralized token holders or third-party escrow services.
Polkalokr offers two main products aimed at onboarding enterprise partners, Lokr and Swapr. Lokr is a multi-chain token escrow and Swapr is a peer-to-peer cross-chain token swapping protocol. Combined, they offer token economies and users within them comprehensive options to lock, distribute, monetize, insure, and swap the tokens that underpin the DeFi and blockchain protocols of tomorrow. You can read more above.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Beeple & Ryoma Ito
Just recently, Beeple collaborated with digital art platform MakersPlace to sell some of his highly coveted NFTs. The sale garnered so much hype that the website crashed, proving just how hard it is to secure a Beeple NFT. Mike Winkelmann aka Beeple and MakersPlace co-founder Ryoma Ito tell the real story, explaining current exuberance around the NFT space and where the market could be heading.
In this episode, Ryoma, Mike and I discuss a range of topics including:
Selling NFTs for millions
The 5000 Day Selects
OG NFTs and Crypto Kitties
Digital vs. physical autographs
NBA Top Shot
Changing stock market rules
Augmented reality vs. virtual reality
Crashing the NFT market
The virtue of patience in art
Reselling NFTs
Beeple’s artistic style inspiration
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.