The Wolf Den #179 - We Hit 50K (Briefly)
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
TRADINGVIEW LINKS ARE NOT LOADING TODAY! YOU HAVE TO CLICK ON THEM AND OPEN THE CHART OUTSIDE OF THE NEWSLETTER.
Bitcoin is currently attempting to break a rising wedge to the upside. While this is viewed as a bearish pattern, I have mentioned many times the long history of Bitcoin breaking up from ascending wedges during bull runs.
Whenever you have a question about a pattern, you should reference thepatternsite.com. This is the most comprehensive analysis of the statistical odds of a pattern playing out in either direction, as well as how to trade different patterns and candlesticks etc.
As Bulkoswki confirms, "rising wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart patterns. Downward breakouts have unacceptably high failure rates and small post breakout declines."
In short, don't worry too much about the rising wedge!
As you can see, we once again have bearish divergence with RSI, but at this point we are going back and forth from bear to hidden bull divs so frequently that it's a bit hard to be concerned. Still, it is worth watching if we have a drop now to see if we have a hidden bull div once again. The 12 hour and above do not have confirmed bear divs as of now. Only 6 hour and below.
Bitcoin Conferences Are Returning
The official Bitcoin Conference is taking place June 4 - 5 in Miami. Originally slated for LA, the move to Miami makes sense, considering the city's lax attitude towards Covid and newfound love for Bitcoin. The speakers already announced for the conference include Jack Dorsey, Chamath Palihapitiya, Tony Hawk, Nick Szabo, Charlie Shrem, and more. As of now, the conference will be in person, and tickets are already being sold online. This very well could be the largest Bitcoin event in history, especially with it coinciding with the greatest crypto bull market ever.
Verge Token Undergoes Another 51% Hack?
The trading market seemed uninterested in the news that Verge underwent a massive 560,000 block reorganization from a supposed 51% hack. This wasn’t the first time Verge was the target of a hack. Low cap altcoins offer malevolent miners an easier opportunity to gain majority control of a network hash rate and execute a 51% attack. According to the Verge team, a 51% attack did not occur, rather, it was a failed attempt at reorganization. The lesson here is that the further you wander down to lower market cap/less reputable coins to invest in, the more susceptible you are to both foreseen and unforeseen risks
Elon Musk Pressures Doge Whales
As with many proof-of-work blockchains, a large majority of tokens are held in the hands of a wealthy few. Dogecoin is no exception, with reports claiming that 65% of the supply is in the hands of about 100 accounts. Aware of this, Elon has offered whales money if they “sell” or “void” their positions. If the accounts are just destroyed, this could be seen as very bullish, with over half the supply essentially being burned. If they are sold on the market, this could be very bad for Dogecoin holders who will have to withstand over half the supply being dumped. A voice as powerful as Elon’s influencing the ecosystem of a coin, even with the right intentions, could be a huge recipe for disaster. Perhaps his plan could save Doge, but keep in mind that many die-hard crypto heads believe that Bitcoin’s greatest asset is an anonymous and absent creator. Elon obviously isn't the creator of Doge, but he has become the most important figure for Doge and is turning tokenomics into politics.
Tron + Celebrities
You may have noticed that some of your favorite Hollywood names have been suspiciously tweeting about Tron this past week, including Lil Yachty, Lindsay Lohan, NeYo, and more. Rumors were spread that there was a targeted campaign to bring influencers into the Tron ecosystem with paid incentives - which now appear to be confirmed. Considering the tweets only mentioned Tron based coins, the writing on the wall was clear. Sure enough, one of the targeted “influencers” leaked an email from an undisclosed 3rd party that offered to pay for a tweet about Tron. Marques Brownlee, a popular YouTuber, was the targeted influencer that leaked the emails offering compensation for a “sponsored tweet.” Justin Sun the CEO, was quick to jump in and claim that neither he nor Tron Foundation have any relation to the tweets and that they don't support what is going on. My intuition is leading me in the direction that Lindsay Lohan is not randomly to explore DeFi and “enjoying Tron” on her own. You decide.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Jim O'Shaughnessy
Legendary investor Jim O’Shaughnessy is a rational optimist. With decades of success as a quant trader, Jim looks at markets for what they are and has beaten the odds by expanding his time horizon and placing his bets on historically safe investment vehicles. As the author of "What Works On Wall Street," Jim is viewed as one of the greatest investors of our time, with an uncanny ability to see past the emotional traps that humans succumb to that prevent them from achieving wealth.
Scott Melker and Jim O’Shaughnessy further discuss millennial investing, world ETFs, hindsight bias, investing in private markets, quant trading, the most powerful emotion is fear, expanding your investment horizon, hedging with farmland, income inequality, GameStop short squeezes, the disservice of winning the lottery, endless money printing and more.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.