The Wolf Den #174 - The Flood Gates Are Opening
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
I have posted this monthly chart a few times. I think it is fair to say that the EQ of the channel has been flipped to support, meaning price should eventually target the top of the channel. While that seems crazy, that would only be a 3-4x from here, which is nothing for Bitcoin.
Fun to note that people were VERY panicked about last month's candle because of the large wick up. As I stated numerous times, a candle alone is nearly meaningless - it's the confirmation from the following candle that matters. I would say that we are working on invalidating the potential bearishness of the January candle.
DAILY CHART
What is there to say? Price has already moved almost half way to the target in a few days. Incredible.
4-HOUR CHART
If you are looking for an entry, these are the potential ideas. A drop to demand or the black line, retesting the previous all time high as support, or a break of the little resistance forming up top. Right now price is consolidating, so hard to enter for the moment.
Altcoin Charts
HXRO/USDT
HXRO has been moving beautifully on the USDT pair, moving into price discovery. Over the past year, I have shared quite a few setups on this coin, but also have expressed that I love the company and am friendly with the team. I am generally bullish on HXRO.
This coin has moved into price discovery on the USDT pair and looks like it is consolidating in a very tight bull flag. That said, if I was trading it, I would look for a break of the flag to the upside, or a drop down to the previous all time high, which "should" eventually be tested as support. Simple.
WAVES/USDT
The WAVES chart looks much like the BTC chart did before the huge move, and we are starting to see that follow through. I would not personally buy this huge candle, but would look to get in on any dip. I've been sharing WAVES charts for a long time, likely that many people are in this trade already. I have identified a potential support at 8.95 that is worth watching if price drops a bit. You can see the macro target.
Legacy Markets
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX)
It is no secret that I have been an outspoken dollar bear for many months, both based on fundamentals (brrrrrr) and the chart. At the moment, the daily chart looks ready for a breakdown of an ascending channel (some would say bear flag, but I don't see a defined flag pole) and another leg down. This would take the dollar at least to the recent lows, if not further.
This is the monthly chart that I have been sharing for ages. For me, it turned bearish last March with that wick up to the EQ of the decade long ascending channel. Of course, that coincides with COVID and the infinite QE and money printing. This drop in dollar value is the reason that stock are able to continue up in the face of a global economic meltdown.
Grayscale Continues To Buy More Bitcoin Than Is Mined
In December, Grayscale bought 3x times the amount of mined Bitcoin, In January they continued the trend, buying 1.5x the total mined Bitcoin for the month. Grayscale has struggled to keep up with demand and continues to periodically stop new investors from accessing the fund to manage the assets they already have. Analysts have said that “the fund manager’s holdings are growing around ten percent every month. If this trend continues, Grayscale could hold ten percent of all Bitcoin within this year itself.”
Apple Should Explore Bitcoin According To RBC Capital
A report from RBC Capital, a global investment bank, was leaked (perhaps intentionally) around the same time Tesla made its announcement about purchasing Bitcoin. The title of the leaked report, Pad Your Wallet First, Flashy Cars Can Come Later is an outline directed at the world’s largest company by market cap (Apple, 2.3T), stating they should drop their pursuit for autonomous cars and capitalize on the Bitcoin opportunity. The report argued that Apple’s native wallet should create a buying and selling mechanism for cryptocurrency. It even pointed out that a closed system (like PayPal’s) would be exceptionally easy to implement and would reduce concerns around fraud, risk, and nefarious activities. The highlights: “To put some numbers around this, Square generates ~$1.6B/qtr in bitcoin related revenue on an active install base that we estimate to be in the ~30M range. Apple's install base is1.5B and even if we assume only 200M users would transact, this is 6.66x larger than Square. Therefore, the potential revenue opportunity would be in excess of 40B/year (15% incremental top line opportunity).”
Also noted in the report was the idea that Apple buying Bitcoin would likely send the price soaring, reinforcing the benefit of buying Bitcoin. MicroStrategy and Tesla are both enjoying this phenomenon today. As time passes and more companies jump on the Bitcoin train, the market will react less and less, rewarding those that were early rather than late.
Ethereum CME Launch Saw Significant Interest
On day one, the Ethereum futures product saw 388 contracts traded, equivalent to about 19,400 ETH or $33M. The money trading the contracts is from the pockets of big players, because each contract represents 50 Ethereum. For Ethereum to hold its value as well as it did the day of the launch is bullish, considering the news of the release was floated publicly for months, allowing investors to buy in on the rumors and news. CME’s managing director, Tim McCourt, has already said there is a growing demand for new products beyond the two that they offer for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Assuming the Ethereum and Bitcoin products continue to deliver, investors should expect other major coins to be added to CME futures, similar to PayPal adding additional support to their platform. The CME certainly isn't finished adding products.
The Demand For NBA NFTs
This is a great thread on the incredible rise of NBA Top Shot and the value of NFTs. Give it a read!
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Raoul Milhado
Raoul Milhado began his career as an entrepreneur at the age of 19. After becoming an expert in building financial services catering to a luxury lifestyle, Raoul built Elitium, a crypto wealth management service focused on bringing big money into the crypto space. As a macro investor, Raoul believes that cryptocurrencies will save wealthy individuals from the effects of the "great financial reset," resulting from trillions in debt and endless money printing.
Raoul and I further discuss taking the crypto red pill, entrepreneurship at age 19, selling mega yachts, bridging old money into crypto, founding Elitium, DeFi velocity, luxury crypto lifestyles, trillions in debt, a failing dollar, an imminent great reset, generating tokens, billion-dollar ICO’s and more.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.