The Wolf Den #169 - Asymmetric Bets
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin looks good to me, not particularly worried at the moment, although anything can happen.
DAILY CHART
This is the clear prevailing pattern for me, as discussed yesterday. We have a massive confirmed bull flag and price just held the EQ of the flag as support. The big trade here is a break of the top resistance, you can see the target.
HOURLY CHART
The hourly chart shows a confirmed inverse head and shoulders (this is a bottoming and reversal pattern). Confirmation came with a break of the neckline between the shoulders, which has now been retested as support. There's also a small bull flag forming. Depending on where that breaks out (if it breaks out), you can see the targets of both patterns.
Altcoin Charts
HBAR/BTC
HBAR recently made a beautiful move, breaking descending resistance on strong volume and heading up for over a 2x gain. The move was stifled at a key former support that was acting as resistance - 359 sats. Price has since consolidated in a descending wedge, statistically likely to break to the upside and retarget the highs at 359. That wedge has now broken out and is being retested as support on lower time frames. Here it is on the 4-hour.
For now, the immediate target is 359. If it flips that to support, I will revisit with some higher targets.
SafePal Wallet Review
After the recent hack with Ledger, I decided to try out the SafePal S1 hardware wallet, which just arrived. From unboxing the device, and comparing its size to my Ledger, it is only a little bit longer and much thinner, fitting perfectly into my pocket. The device carries like a credit card holder in hand and functions like an old MP3 player, leaving me a little nostalgic every time I use it. The button pad was very intuitive and allowed for easy navigation on the device. The most important features for me were coin support, storage room, and privacy. As a trader, I often move in and out of stable coins, meaning support for USDC and USDT was a must, which it supports. Right away I checked if it supported OMG, one of the coins I have been charting often in the newsletter and it did, another additional plus. Furthermore, after doing more research on its storage properties, the SafePal functions differently than my Ledger Nano S, which only supports about 3/4 cryptos then runs out of room. The technicalities are above my head, but according to the site, The software architect of SafePal S1, on the other hand, is quite different from Ledger. SafePal S1 adopts the architect of "one program supporting all encryption algorithms," which gives strong scalability to SafePal S1 for multi-currencies support. Meaning, SafePal S1 can support unlimited cryptocurrencies. This is a huge plus for a trader who is moving through many coins and needs a hardware device with a wide range of altcoin support. The main reason why I purchased the SafePal was the need for privacy. Setting up the device didn't require Bluetooth, wifi, or NFC, meaning the device remains cold as intended. You can even purchase the device from Amazon if you are more comfortable purchasing from there, as they already have your information stored. Overall, the device is great, for $40 I feel comfortable using it on the go as a trader or keeping it locked away as a long-term storage device. It's a great first step for those considering cold wallets but have yet to make the transition. It’s best to get comfortable using a cold storage device now before you are in a panic that your crypto is worth a lot more overnight and fear creeps in because you have left it exposed on an exchange.
Mark Cuban On The Store Of Value Generation
Mark Cuban has historically been a bit schizophrenic when it comes to Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain, but seems to be leaning towards support in the past few months. His most recent blog titled, The Store of Value Generation is Kicking Your Ass and You Don’t Even Know it is a detailed view of why our generation is moving towards digital assets and what it means for Boomers who are reluctant to take the leap. Inspired by the recent attacks on Wall Street masterminded by the little guys, Mark wrote about why he is coming around to crypto, particularly NFTs. As a baseball card and stamp collector, Mark believes value lies in scarcity, verifiability, and authenticity. Collectors of all generations can agree with this, but many struggle to see the value in digital scarcity. Using Mark’s words, “to so many the idea that a crypto asset could be a store of value is crazy. To them, there is no intrinsic value. To them it is a digital representation of nothing, that crazy people are paying good money for. That is not the case.” Mark is another example of someone who took the time to learn the tech and is now a firm believer, a conclusion most will arrive at in time.
SEC Report Reveals Guggenheim Wants $500M In Bitcoin
In a filing to the SEC that has now been approved, Guggenheim Partners stated, “the Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund may seek investment exposure to bitcoin indirectly through investing up to 10% of its net asset value in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (“GBTC”), a privately offered investment vehicle that invests in bitcoin.” Doing the math, the approved 10% allocation means around $500M is now green-lighted to purchase Bitcoin, which would remove further supply from the market. With a $500M purchase, Guggenheim would become the 3rd largest GBTC holder. READ THE FULL REPORT HERE.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Jonathan Chester
Jonathan Chester became a Bitcoin adopter almost a decade ago, with the intention of changing the way that people are paid. He is the founder and CEO of BitWage, the most popular crypto payment company and is responsible for making sure that anyone and everyone around the world can be paid in Bitcoin. As Jonathan elaborates on in the podcast, it's usually when disbelief creeps in that the best things begin to unfold in crypto.
Jon and I further discuss early adopters in crypto, magic internet money, paying the world in crypto, storing cash under a mattress, perverse incentives, Tim Draper as an investor, Wall Street’s coordinated FUD, the scarcity of Bitcoin, beneath the whitepaper, infinite wealth on a paper wallet, borrowing against Bitcoin, the disbelief of bull runs, and more.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.