The Wolf Den #151 - Capitol Building Stormed , Market Doesn't Care
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I mentioned a number of times when Bitcoin was still below 20K that once that level broke, charts would be far more difficult to use. I think that has clearly come to fruition. Bitcoin has almost doubled since those levels, going parabolic and failing to form clear levels of resistance and support. At this moment, it is anyone's guess as to what levels are reasonable to watch as traders. I personally have "missed" all of this movement as a trader, while my investment portfolio has multiplied rapidly. That's fine with me. There's little reason to trade Bitcoin right now if you have spot holdings that you have accumulated at any point in the past few years.
MONTHLY CHART
I posted this chart three days ago, and the monthly candle is not even close to being fully formed. That said, wow. The last 3 months and the current candle are all massive and bullish, flipping the EQ of this ascending channel with a target at the top. Depending when it hits (if it hits), that would be 150K or higher.
4-HOUR CHART
You have to zoom into the 4-hour to attempt to find any levels. I have drawn a few below (nothing above, of course) to identify potential areas of support. You can use these if Bitcoin finally retraces. For now, enjoy the ride.
Chart Requests
Here is the weekly chart request video - this was really fun. You guys had a LOT of requests! Here they are - $ABML $ATOM $BAND $BAT $CHZ $DCR $DIA $DKNG $DOGE $EOS $ETH $HBAR $LINK $LRC $LTC $MAHA $NEXO $OCEAN $OMG $RAMP $REN $SLV $STX $TLRY $VET $YFI $YFL
Livestream With Tradeboi Carti
My friend Tradeboi Carti will be joining me at 8 PM EST to talk markets, share charts and look ahead to what we can expect from 2021. He's a professional trader with a background at a hedge fund pro hockey player and all around legend. You will learn a ton.
Gains Come In Waves
According to Chris Burniske, a popular crypto Twitter personality and investor, crypto needs a pullback in order to head higher. He made a really good analogy that I will share here: bull markets in crypto are similar to sets of waves in the ocean. For our purposes, a wave can be defined as 4 straight weeks of gains in the market, or one month of weekly green candles. Using this analogy, examining the last bull run, there were 3 waves in 2015 with the last one being a “breakout wave” leading to 5 big waves occurring in 2016-2017, with the mega wave being late 2017 (this is only relevant on a log chart). 2019 had one massive wave from March-June resulting in a large pull back and 2 smaller waves in 2020. Getting to the point, leading into 2021 we are seeing a massive wave. If the pattern continues, we should expect some consolidation with a pullback before the next set. The final takeaway is that the waves tend to intensify later in the set. A rule of thumb for Bitcoin’s price is that the majority of its gains in a bull run happen very fast, like within the time frame of 2 weeks, right before it ends. A consolidation here would signal that we should expect another set at some point to build up in the future more intensely than now with a final wave to take us to our final destination for this cycle.
This is all based on past price action - nothing is guaranteed to be the same on this round.
What Bitcoin Category Are You In?
The CEO and founder of LunarCrush, Joe Vezzani, posted a chart on Twitter depicting the percentage of addresses holding different Bitcoin balances. If you are like most people, you are probably watching Bitcoin rise and wishing you had more - you feel like you don't own enough. Be proud of where you land, as it’s estimated that less than 2% of the world owns any crypto at all. If you hold between .1 and 1 Bitcoin you are in the top 10% in Bitcoin balances - make this your goal!
The UK Protecting Traders From... Themselves
The widely publicized FCA ban on derivates trading in the UK has gone into effect. Traders there will no longer be able to use leveraged exchanges or trade derivatives products... in theory. More likely UK traders will continue to use a VPN and trade on the exchanges as usual.
A Sliver Of Good News For Treasuries
"The 10-year yield’s recovery to 1%, after collapsing to record lows early in the pandemic, now reflects a brightening, though hardly spectacular, economic outlook. One sign of improving investor sentiment is that expectations for annual increases in the consumer-price index over the next decade—derived from the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields—climbed above 2% this week for the first time since 2018."
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Pierce Crosby
Pierce Crosby came to the crypto community with years of experience building large scale communities for different social platforms. He helped transform TradingView into a hub of social networking, idea sharing, and community interaction above and beyond just trading. TradingView is now the 125th largest website in the world, and Pierce has big plans to bring the platform to every finance circle on the globe.
Pierce and I further discuss hundreds of thousands of dollars in Memecoin, turning TradingView into one of the largest websites in the world, who is MagicPoopCannon, blowing up trading accounts, comparing TradingView to Spotify and SoundCloud, investing in the Tesla ICO, managing the velocity of DeFi, TradingView desktop version, positive and negative community development and more.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.\
This is where I spend my days teaching and learning! Our Discord group is a one stop shop for everything you need to learn to trade and control your emotions. Feel free to DM me on Twitter or respond to this email for questions.
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
Rewards Code: Scott25
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
The platform I am using for my taxes. My trades were automatically imported after setup and displayed nicely. The tax report was quick and easy to create in the app. I can also track the performance of my assets in the app. With Blockpit, I no longer have to worry about realizing profits or losses in time.
Binance is finally available in Florida!
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.