The Wolf Den #15 - Chart Requests
BITCOIN
If you are following me on Twitter, you know that I exited my longs in profit yesterday around $8,620. I felt like the movement had stalled, and since I was unsure of what was coming next and was starting to lean more bearish, I decided to take profit and wait it out. Glad I did.
Price has broken below the trading range (which looked like a bear flag on some exchanges) and has also broken down the key area of support (red line) for now. I would expect a retest of this as resistance and potentially further downside. There is also a clear descending resistance forming as well (blue), so a break of this would be a good signal that more upside is in the cards.
On Tuesday, I shared the bear div on the daily (not shown) which was likely to continue to play out. That seems to have been the case. That said, all EMAs are still below price and a test of these (really a mean reversion) is expected. My orders are in the area of this red box, although I find it a bit unsettling that the crowd seems to also be watching this area. The top of that demand zone is in confluence with the 200 EMA on the daily.
CHART REQUESTS
AION/BTC - 1/22
AION has been ranging for months, never able to make a clean move above the equilibrium, or center line of the range. There is also a descending black resistance that would need to be broken for this to look bullish. That said, volume has seen a remarkable increase over the past months, which could be a sign that price is ready to follow. Volume precedes price! This has me interested.
Update - this has already started to move.
ALGO/BTC
Traders who follow ICE and institutional flow consider a .705 retrace to be an optimal trade entry (OTE). Price retraced the most recent move up all of the way to the .786, with perfect candle support on that line. Price is now currently back to the .705, which could signal that it's ready to reverse. That said, nothing else looks particularly bullish. This is somewhat sitting in the middle of a range without clear direction. It's positive that it is on the top half of the range.
APHRIA (APHA) - 1/22
This looks really good, I may buy some depending on movement today. I charted this yesterday. Price broke the prevailing downtrend (blue line) and formed an inverse head and shoulders, a bottom reversal pattern. Price broke out through the neckline (black) on strong volume. Really bullish here. Also a golden cross of the 21 and 50 EMAs. A retest of that neckline could be an awesome entry. Update: I bought some just now at 5.58 on the retest.
BAT/USDT
As with any USD or USDT pair, this will move largely with Bitcoin. Today's drop is a result of the same drop on Bitcoin. Key zones of support and resistance are marked with light blue boxes. The key local support is the ascending black line. Price is currently in a descending wedge on top of a big green candle, which is bullish. Not a bull flag technically, because a bull flag is parallel. A move off of support could be a nice entry with a tight stop in case it breaks. Otherwise, it would be more bullish for price to be trading above that blue zone where it is currently finding resistance.
BEYOND MEAT (BYND)
As you likely know, I caught the bulk of this insane move up and exited at the white neckline of the former head and shoulders last week. This was right before price dropped, but it has gained more steam since. That said, it was once again rejected at both horizontal and neckline resistance. There's also a sizable bearish divergence with RSI in overbought territory. As with any stock, fundamentals drive the market, so take this with a grain of salt. Technically, this looks due for a retrace. Really ugly daily candle as well.
ENJ/BTC - 1/22
This look interesting. Price is in a large descending wedge, statistically likely to break to the upside. Breaching the upper line would be a relatively safe entry. Price is currently above support, which was flipped from resistance (blue zone). The risk reward of a position in this area with a stop below the blue zone is good. I would really like to see price break that upper black line before getting excited.
Update: I took this trade on the breakout - when I noticed it was happening, I contacted the member who requested this directly to make sure that they saw it!
ETC/USD
This one is tough for me to get a read on. It had a huge move up in the past weeks, pierced through resistance and fell back below. The fact that price wicked above multiple previous swing highs but failed to close above them gives me pause - that is a bearish sign that the move is likely finished. However, price is consolidating under resistance (blue zone). Key levels for me are marked. I would personally be interested above the blue level or at one of the black lines below.
ETH/USD
I have shared this a few times, nothing has really changed in my view. Price still broke the downtrend but will likely follow Bitcoin in whatever direction it takes. Price was rejected at the 23.6% fib, in confluence with the daily 200 EMA. The 50 EMA and 21 EMA are below for likely support, so I would like to that area for a potential bounce. Again, it's up to Bitcoin, but this still looks generally bullish on larger time frames. The price action cluster around $144 is where I personally have a few orders.
LSK/BTC
Not interesting below 873 for me. Key area of resistance with multiple wicks through but no candle closes. On a macro level, it broke out of that descending wedge - a pattern we have seen on a lot of alts in the past few months. It is currently ranging between the black lines and in the blue trading range. A definitive move out of that range in either direction would give us some clues. But this is basically sideways for now, and with Bitcoin acting up I can't see a reason to jump in.
LTC/BTC
Litecoin is reacting relatively well to the Bitcoin drop. Really still consolidating bullishly in a bull pennant of sorts (not drawn, but you can see the idea). As predicted previously, price was rejected at the EQ of the trading range (the dashed center line). Still looks relatively good, just need to see what Bitcoin is going to do. A move above that dashed line should lead to a move to the top of the range.
MATIC/BTC
MATIC is somewhat permanently off of my radar after the epic pump and dump. If you were following me at the time, I caught much of the move up and sold right around the dead top, stating that a large drop was likely coming. At this point, price is below key resistance at 212 and moving sideways. I personally have no interest in trading this after what I saw, and don't see a real reason to enter technically at the moment. That could change.
MONA/BTC
I had not opened this chart since December of 2017! Like with most alts, price is currently ranging sideways in the blue zone. It held the equilibrium (EQ, dashed center line) as support, which is more bullish than bearish. It is also trading above all EMAs and presently flipping the 200 EMA from resistance to support. I could definitely see this making a move to at least the top of the range if Bitcoin behaves. That's a BIG IF.
NEO/BTC
This daily candle is key. A close above the black horizontal line and blue ascending line would be encouraging - support holding. A close below one or the other would be a likely sign that support is broken and more downside is likely. This most recent move up retraced all of the way to the golden pocket by the 61.8% fib. The drop from there was highly probable. Now we wait and wee the daily close and if the 23.6% fib holds as support.
NEXO/BTC
A key area is holding as resistance. I would not trade this below that area, unless it makes a move to the lower box where you could potentially buy at support. Key areas are all laid out here.
OCEAN/BTC
Ocean has been in a steady uptrend from the all time low, as shown by the blue support line. An entry on a bounce off of this could be really nice with a stop loss a bit below. I used the Ichimoku cloud here, because I find it interesting. Price was rejected at the top of the cloud, and fell below yesterday, which is bearish. The cloud is now acting as resistance. This was preceded by a bearish TK Cross (The Tenkan in light blue crossing below the Kijun, in brown). When this happens above the cloud, it's a sign to close your long positions.
Price is forming a daily hammer at the moment, which would be a potential bullish reversal candle. Wait and see.
ONT/BTC
This is interesting. I am not much of a fractal guy, but this one is somewhat clear and hard to ignore. You can see that we had almost the exact same price movement a few months ago, so I will be watching to see if it repeated. If so, we would look for quite a bit more sideways before a move up.
Fractal aside, price broke descending resistance, which is bullish. That said, I like it much better with clear support at 807, not trading below that line.
QNT/BTC
Rejected at a few lines of resistance for the moment, both descending and horizontal. Not seeing much bullishness here until it is trading above the blue line, and preferably both of the zones drawn above.
RVN/BTC
I chart this for someone every week, but nothing has changed in the least. Just sitting on that key demand area (the blue zone) and holding it as support for now. It keeps bouncing out and then dropping back in. That red line is the key resistance, for me a break above that would be a sign that the bear trend is actually over. That was a big head and shoulders, and that line is an extension of the neckline. I just don't see anything still on this coin.
SNX/BTC
Very little price history to go on here, since this is somewhat newly listed and only on Bittrex. That said, it looks like a clear resistance to support flip is happening, so it remains bullish and likely to continue above 7429.
TESLA (TSLA) - 1/22
Strange to say, but I am almost fully out of my Tesla position (trading portfolio, still have long stack from sub $40). It could certainly continue to rip, as irrational FOMO has kicked in. There is no way on a chart in upward price discovery to predict the top. I am more than thrilled with 3X profit on my trade. I have new buy orders at the top of the old trading range, AKA the previous all time high. $380 area. Hoping for an eventual pullback there. Also, weekly RSI is at an astounding 85. Insanely overbought.
WAN/USDT
Bitcoin is having it's way with the USDT pair at the moment - no surprises there. Nice breakout of the downtrend, as seen with the black line. That said, price looks like it may come back and retest that line, as well as the key blue support zone that is drawn. Above 2053 would be a really nice sign that it's likely to turn bullish. That area is a key resistance that is yet to be flipped to support. So for me, an entry on a support bounce or a support flip up above.
XRP/USD
As always, this coin is lagging and doesn't look great. Every other major broke it's downtrend in the past few weeks against USD, but not XRP. Instead it was rejected at descending resistance and now the blue zone seems to be holding at resistance. The good news is that the R1 pivot is presently holding as support. Regardless, I continue to have no interest in this coin, because it seems like the company is selling into any move up. If you are intent on trading it, a break of the black descending line could be your signal.
XLM/BTC
Rejected at the bottom of the daily cloud, which is red. This is generally bearish using this indicator. Price is riding the Kijun (brown line) down at the moment. I am watching for a bullish TK Cross, the light blue Tenkan crossing up the Kijun. The 50 EMA is sitting in confluence with the black support line - that could be a good entry if price continues to drop.
All of the wicks up are ugly, not really feeling Stellar at the moment.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.