The Wolf Den #131 - Gigachad Michael Saylor Going All In
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Nothing is happening. I would love to write an inspired treatise on how Bitcoin will inevitably blast through resistance or dump to all time lows for engagement, but that's not my style. We are chopping sideways, waiting for direction. The only slight adjustment I can make from yesterday is to redraw the bottom line of the pennant, which changes little. We did not see a "dump" today (as of yet). This is just sideways price action on low volume.
Even with the old line (not shown) price has currently wicked below and is trading back above. Worth noting is that we may be potentially making another higher low, because this present drop did not head past the previous local low. Either way, this still appears to be bullish consolidation, but we won't know unless the top line breaks. Lower highs, higher lows = consolidation and a pause before a definitive move.
No reason in the world to trade this for now. Be patient.
Popular Bitcoin Predictions
"Don't ever let someone tell you you can't do something" - Chris Gardner
There are a handful of popular models that track the price history of Bitcoin and predict where price will peak in its next cycle. Each model is based on different metrics, with the most popular being the “Plan-B Stock to Flow, JP Morgan Gold Match and Fibonacci Extension. Popular Twitter personality Alistair Milne compiled 9 of the most popular models and displayed all of their predictions, ranging from a $90,000 top to a $394,500 top. Going a step further, I went ahead and averaged all 9 of the predictions together and found the mean to be $235,000 as the cycle top. This is close to a 12x from where we are now, which certainly does not seem impossible. Alistair wrote an excellent short article on Bitcoin all-time high predictions which is linked above.
Institutions Want Ethereum
GrayScale’s managing director Michael Sonnenshein gave a strong nod to Ethereum in a recent interview with Bloomberg. He said that “over the course of 2020 we are seeing a new group of investors who are Ethereum first and in some cases Ethereum only,” and that “there’s a growing conviction around Ethereum as an asset class.” Bitcoin will likely always be the first stop for investors, but 2nd place isn't a bad place to be. GrayScale reported that in Q4 2019, the GrayScale Ethereum trust was at $20.1 million and finished Q3 of 2020 at $204.1 million. The interview concluded with Sonnenshein stating that, “Ethereum has about the same staying power as Bitcoin.” It is our belief that if you own crypto and aren't exposed to Ethereum you will probably miss out.
Mt. Gox Coins Could Hit The Open Market
The latest deadline in the Mt. Gox rehabilitation process may unleash $2.6 billion in Bitcoin.
I don't concern myself with these narratives as a trader or investor, but the Mt. Gox saga has been endless and could be finally finding some resolution.
After multiple delays, creditors of Mt. Gox who lost money in its implosion in 2014 are set to know when they will receive BTC on Dec. 15. That does not mean the coins become available that day - it means that they will potentially find out when they will receive their coins, if ever.
You can set an alert to monitor the outflow here:
Wells Fargo Publishes Bitcoin Report
There's nothing particularly notable in the report. What is worth discussing is that every single major US Bank and financial institution is under pressure from their customers to take a stance on Bitcoin. It would have been unheard of just months ago to see this level of commitment from legacy institutions to discuss crypto - now it is the norm. They have to do it face the consequences.
Live with Ran Neuner at 10 AM EST Today!
I am going live this morning with Ran Neuner to discuss Bitcoin, altcoins and the market in general. I will likely share a few charts and ideas. What's interesting is that this is a call in show, so you can all come hang out and ask questions directly etc. Pretty cool concept.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Sanja Kon
As a young girl, Sanja Kon was told that she was “too ambitious” because of her insatiable drive to succeed and change the world. Fast forward to her professional career, where Sanja has played a significant role in the development of PayPal and eBay, leading innovation in the fintech and e-commerce sectors. After discovering blockchain and crypto, she took a huge leap into the nascent space and became CEO of Utrust, with the ambitious goal of scaling worldwide adoption of a brand new payment method.
Sanja and I further discuss what it's like to work at eBay and PayPal, leaving the legacy system for crypto, PayPal offering cryptocurrency, becoming the CEO of Utrust, reverse staking, COVID-19, the death of brick and mortar, an “overly ambitious” child, hiring for diversity, the stages of joining the crypto ecosystem, women in tech, the rate of crypto adoption and more
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Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.