The Wolf Den #125 - Time For A New All Time High?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin looks bullish, as always. If we break the all time high, we go into price discovery and will need new lines. That is about to happen as I am writing this!
MONTHLY CHART
WHAT FREAKING DIP!? Right? The monthly candle is absolutely massive, presently one of the largest that we have ever seen. Yes, there was a small dip last week, but with the monthly close imminent things could not possible look more bullish. My best advice for new traders is to ZOOM OUT, take smaller position on larger time frames and be patient. Doing that, it would be impossible to have lost money trading Bitcoin for the past 6 months.
We are close enough to sniff the all time high. Will it happen today?
DAILY CHART
A few weeks ago I added the purple line at $17,178 on the weekly chart above. While it does not look that significant, I shared the following chart from the Daily, in 2018.
$17,178 was the top of the dead cat bounce after the all time high, after seeing price go quickly from 20K to 10K and then back up. Well, let's see how that level played out on this recent small dip.
Cool, right? We had 3 consecutive daily candles wick below that line but hold the level as support on the candle close. That was ultimately the support that mattered on this move. Those 3 long wicks, each with a higher low showed tremendous buying pressure. Beautiful from a TA perspective.
4-HOUR CHART
This is just your daily reminder that oversold bullish divergence and overbought bearish divergence with RSI are the best available signals for a likely trend reversal. For those of you who are not new here, I drew this just a few short days ago, on November 26th. This is what I look for. This is how I trade.
Another Hedge Fund Is Ready For Bitcoin
The $230 billion firm could gain exposure to bitcoin via Grayscale's GBTC.
Guggenheim Partners is a $275 billion dollar hedge fund that just received approval from the SEC to purchase Bitcoin. Currently boasting 5.3 billion in AUM, the firm is allowed to allocate 10% of their holdings into Grayscale’s BTC trust, GBTC. Grayscale’s trust has really been doing god's work for the space allowing institutions ease of access with little concern from regulatory agencies.
Visa Is Quietly Moving Towards Cryptocurrency
In an interview earlier this month that flew under the radar, Alfred F. Kelly Jr., the CEO of Visa, expressed strong interest in cryptocurrencies. His interest lies in stable coins and CBDCs (not really cryptocurrencies!) as mechanisms to facilitate payments across the entire Visa network. Despite Visa’s lack of interest in cryptocurrencies beyond stablecoins and CBDCs, the CEO seemed very knowledgeable about the space and has clear intentions of moving the credit card giant intro crypto.
Real Vision CEO Goes Long(er) On BTC And ETH
Real Vision CEO and former hedge fund investor Raoul Pal announced that he is going all-in on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Upon filling his active gold sell order, he will scale into crypto and sit at 98% invested in cryptocurrency with an 80/20 split between BTC and ETH. He mentioned that he thinks “ETH outperforms possibly by 5 to 1 but who knows. BTC is the easy bet.” Under no circumstance do we think anybody should blindly follow his strategy just because he did it. He ended the Tweet with “#irresponsibylong” which is probably a fair assessment. More than likely his bet will make him 10x richer than he already is, but this is incredibly risky and not appropriate for the average investor.
Libra Is Making Progress
After a cycle of insane hype and widespread disappointment, the Libra Association has announced its plans to launch a stablecoin in the coming months. Their plans to launch multiple stablecoins have been postponed by endless regulatory scrutiny and political concern, but one less aggressive currency has seemed to have made it through. Now that institutions are regularly hopping on board the crypto train, Libra has seemingly lost the spotlight. We will continue to monitor their stablecoin release in the coming months.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.\
This is where I spend my days teaching and learning! Our Discord group is a one stop shop for everything you need to learn to trade and control your emotions. Feel free to DM me on Twitter or respond to this email for questions.
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
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I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
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This is one of the main places where I hold crypto to gain interest. Celsius also offers dollar or stablecoin loans against your crypto, starting at just 1% annual interest. Celsius is giving WOAS followers $20 to open a new Celsius wallet. All you have to do is enter promo code WOLF, then transfer and keep at least $200 worth of crypto in your wallet for 30 days.
My preferred crypto tax software.
Binance is finally available in Florida!
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Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.