The Wolf Den #1221 - Crypto Is Calling
Pick up the phone.
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In This Issue:
Crypto Is Calling
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Crypto Can Be Tricky In Divorce
The SEC Delays The SOL ETF
Following Up On The Paraguay Hack
Massive Bitcoin ETF Surge - But The Stablecoin Bill Is The Real Gamechanger
Crypto Is Calling
I’ve been thinking about the recent JPMorgan news: accepting IBIT as collateral, including crypto in net worth calculations, and launching the new JPMD deposit token. And honestly, I’m surprised by how little attention it’s getting. Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways range, and everyone seems to be waiting around for the next flashy headline.
But this is the kind of development that brings real capital into the space – tens, maybe hundreds, of billions. Once JPMorgan makes a move, it won’t be long before other banking giants follow suit. Part of the problem is that the headlines don’t feel immediate. They don’t scream for attention.
So let’s change that.
I can’t control the market, but I can present this story in a way that makes the impact clear – and I think the best way to do that is through a fictional conversation between a JPMorgan rep and one of their high-net-worth clients.
This isn’t based on any insider information. It’s a creative depiction meant to highlight what this shift really means.
Client: Hello?
JPMorgan Rep: Hi, this is Alex from JPMorgan’s digital assets team. Got a moment to talk about some new opportunities?
Client: Does this involve crypto? Because your CEO called Bitcoin a “pet rock” and said it had no intrinsic value.
JPMorgan Rep (chuckling): Fair point. Let’s just say we’ve evolved. We’re now accepting BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF – IBIT – as collateral for institutional clients.
Client: So you’re letting people use Bitcoin-backed ETFs to get credit?
JPMorgan Rep: That’s right. We’re integrating crypto into broader portfolio strategies – not as speculation, but as part of your capital base.
We wanted you to be among the first to know. This is a structural shift. We’re now recognizing select digital assets, starting with IBIT, within our internal credit models. That unlocks flexible borrowing, better capital efficiency, and a more accurate picture of your net worth.
Client: A year ago you wouldn’t even acknowledge my crypto. Now you’re offering me leverage on it?
JPMorgan Rep: Things change. The market, our clients, and our thinking have all evolved.
Remember that Aspen home you were looking to buy earlier this year? You had the liquidity – mostly in BTC and ETH – but we couldn’t move forward. No credit extension. No recognition of your holdings.
Now, with IBIT accepted as collateral, we can help you unlock that value without triggering a taxable event. No need to sell. You stay fully exposed to the upside – and get the house.
Also, we’re now factoring crypto into net worth assessments. Just by accounting for your ETH and SOL positions, your net worth jumps 15%. That changes your risk profile and lets us offer more favorable terms – including a lower mortgage rate.
Client: So I keep my crypto, use IBIT as collateral, and get a better rate?
JPMorgan Rep: Exactly. We’re not just accepting crypto – we’re building around it.
Client: I’ll admit – that’s impressive.
JPMorgan Rep: And since you run treasury and liquidity for Northbridge – a $3 billion real estate platform – there’s one more thing. We just launched JPMD, a blockchain-based deposit token on Base.
Client: Wait, you put a deposit token on Base? I thought JPM hated this stuff.
JPMorgan Rep: Not anymore. JPMD is a digitized representation of dollar deposits held at JPMorgan. Unlike stablecoins, which operate outside the banking system, JPMD is fully regulated, issued by us, and tied directly to bank deposits.
Client: So it’s not like USDC or Tether?
JPMorgan Rep: Not quite. Stablecoins are backed by cash and equivalents, but they’re outside the system. JPMD operates inside it – with fractional reserves, legal compliance, and potentially even yield. Think of it as institutional-grade digital cash.
Client: Why does this matter?
JPMorgan Rep: It changes how institutions manage liquidity. Instead of letting funds sit idle in a stablecoin or wait on slow transfers, JPMD lets you move real dollars instantly – with JPMorgan credit, settlement finality, and on-chain programmability. You can use it for treasury, partner payouts, or vendor payments.
Client: And it’s live?
JPMorgan Rep: The pilot’s active on Base. We’ve onboarded a select group of institutional clients. With your profile, you’d be a great fit.
Client: From “Bitcoin is a pet rock” to deposit tokens on a Coinbase chain. Jamie must be thrilled.
JPMorgan Rep: Jamie may not like it – but he follows the money. Don’t quote me on that.
Client: I’ll think it over once the Aspen place closes. In the meantime, let’s start that loan conversation.
JPMorgan Rep: You got it.
Now, I don’t know what’s actually said behind closed doors at JPMorgan. But I’d bet it’s not far off. These clients aren’t asking, “What is Bitcoin?” They’re asking, “How can I use it more efficiently?”
When a bank like JPMorgan starts treating Bitcoin ETFs as real collateral and begins integrating crypto into net worth models, it’s not just internal housekeeping – it’s a signal. And every other major player is watching.
They’re not pitching Bitcoin to 90-year-old muni bond holders. They’re rolling out polished, well-tested sales strategies to the right clients. That’s why Bitcoin ETFs have done so well – not because retail lined up at the door, but because institutions are actively selling them.
And this is just the start. More ETF approvals are coming. Index-based crypto products are next. Eventually, staking. And once Bitcoin makes its way into broader, non-crypto indexes, the buying pressure will become systemic.
We can think in terms of this cycle – or we can think about what’s possible. One ends. The other doesn’t.
Crypto is calling – pick up the phone.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to hover in familiar territory, and today’s chart doesn’t add much new drama – but it does offer some useful structure to work with.
Price is grinding just above the 50-day moving average, which currently sits around $104,000. That level has provided reliable support over the last few weeks and is now reinforced by horizontal support from the prior range breakout. A clean bounce here keeps the door open for another attempt at the $112,000 high, which remains the key resistance level to reclaim.
Below the current price, the structure is layered. The next major support sits around $100,700, and below that, the psychological $100K mark acts as a backstop. A break below that level could set the stage for a deeper pullback toward $92,800 or even $88,800 – both of which served as prior resistance and could now act as support.
Momentum remains weak, volume is nothing to write home about, and volatility has tapered off. But this type of coiling action often precedes a bigger move. The good news for bulls is that despite the chop, Bitcoin has consistently made higher lows – a sign of quiet accumulation and underlying strength.
Bottom line – Bitcoin is range-bound but respecting structure. As long as it holds above $104K, bulls are still in the game. Break below $100K, and the picture changes quickly. Stay nimble.
Markets Drop As Middle East Tensions Rise And Fed Warns On Inflation
Global stocks slid as investors braced for possible direct U.S. involvement in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation may remain elevated longer than expected. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.6% for its third straight day of losses, Asian shares dropped over 1%, and U.S. futures were also in the red. Cash trading in the U.S. was closed for the Juneteenth holiday, but sentiment turned sharply cautious after Bloomberg reported that senior U.S. officials are preparing for a potential strike on Iran. The dollar strengthened against most major currencies as traders moved into risk-off mode.
The shift in tone from the Fed added to the unease. While policymakers kept rates steady as expected, Powell noted that rising tariffs could have a lasting impact on inflation, and the Fed cut its 2025 growth outlook. Despite leaving the median projection of two rate cuts unchanged, some officials revised down their individual forecasts, signaling increased uncertainty. Powell emphasized that the central bank is not in a rush to ease policy, citing “meaningful inflation” and geopolitical risks as complicating factors.
Traders are now pricing in nearly 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, but the path forward remains unclear. According to Nomura’s Gareth Nicholson, investors are turning to assets less correlated to interest rates and political volatility — though such options are increasingly limited. Oil markets were volatile, with Brent crude hovering above $77 and West Texas Intermediate near $76. A direct U.S. strike on Iran could cause oil prices to spike significantly, further complicating inflation control efforts and delaying rate cuts.
In Europe, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to zero, aiming to curb the franc’s surge — now up nearly 10% against the dollar this year. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4.25% and maintain its cautious one-cut-every-other-meeting stance as it balances inflation concerns, oil-driven price pressures, and signs of economic slowdown.
While the Fed reiterated its two-cut outlook, the combination of tariff-driven inflation, slowing growth, and growing geopolitical instability leaves markets navigating a murky macro backdrop. As Powell put it, the Fed is playing it safe — but the risks are anything but.
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7% as of 8:47 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1468
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.35 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1936 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.3412
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $104,757.98
Ether fell 0.2% to $2,523.48
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.53%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.9% to $77.40 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,365.44 an ounce
Crypto Can Be Tricky In Divorce
The Block just published an interesting article on the growing role crypto is playing in divorce proceedings. I’m not here to offer financial or marital advice – but I do think the takeaways are worth sharing. If you’re trying to protect or recover crypto during a divorce, this might help.
It’s no surprise that Bitcoin and other digital assets are showing up more often in family court. Prenups and postnups are starting to include crypto-specific language – spelling out how it should be classified, valued, and divided – but the legal system is still catching up. While outright concealment is rare, lawyers are seeing more cases where one spouse secretly uses marital funds to buy crypto or hide gains. The usual red flags? Unexplained withdrawals or a sudden, unexpected interest in technology.
The biggest challenge is identifying and valuing the assets. Volatility, pseudonymity, and non-KYC exchanges make it harder to track, and courts often have to bring in forensic accountants who understand onchain movements. Even so, the law treats crypto just like any other marital asset – it’s subject to equitable division. As more case law develops, one thing is clear: transparency and early involvement of tech-savvy experts are essential.
The SEC Delays The SOL ETF
It is no surprise the SEC issued a delay on the Solana ETF filings – especially considering we just learned the agency is actively engaging with issuers on their S-1s. On the delay, Eric Balchunas had this to say: “(Approval) odds 90%. Ball in the SEC’s court after the S-1s refiled. Dialogue between the SEC and issuers is a great sign. Timeline less clear, though 2–4 weeks is ambitious.” His colleague James Seyffart added: “I wouldn’t be completely shocked if we see approvals for Solana ETFs in the next month or so. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until the final deadline in October. Timeline unknown.”
What would actually surprise me is if the SEC approved Solana ETFs with staking before Ethereum gets the same treatment. Every SOL application includes staking provisions – something ETH ETF issuers have now started incorporating as well. If a SOL staking ETF gets the green light first, it would be a meaningful sentiment blow to Ethereum.
Following Up On The Paraguay Hack
I thought we’d have more details by now about the June 10 hacking of Paraguay’s president — especially given the dramatic fake announcement about a national Bitcoin reserve and bond issuance. But the story has mostly fizzled, with little follow-up or investigation made public.
Cointelegraph covered the incident, tying it to a broader pattern of high-profile hacks: the 2020 Twitter breach that dragged in Elon Musk, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama for a Bitcoin scam; the 2021 compromise of India’s Prime Minister; and even the SEC’s own X account being hijacked in 2024.
This latest stunt seemed tailor-made for virality — and yet, it barely held attention. Maybe it lacked novelty. Maybe it was just too easy to spot as fake. The crypto space, as usual, amplified the headline without much verification. But to our credit, a lot of individual accounts flagged it as suspicious from the start.
Maybe that’s a small sign of progress.
Massive Bitcoin ETF Surge - But The Stablecoin Bill Is The Real Gamechanger
Bitcoin ETFs just logged a $1.8 billion inflow streak - but all eyes are now on the game-changing stablecoin bill just passed in the Senate. I’m joined by Sandy Kaul, Head of Innovation at Franklin Templeton, to break down why this legislation matters, how it signals the shift to a wallet-based financial system, and what it means for the future of digital money.
Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
What is the haircut on the collateral? That’s all that really matters.
https://substack.com/@ericjohncampbell/note/c-118566419?r=5ohta3