The Wolf Den #1220 - When Banks Collapse, Bitcoin Doesn’t Blink
A Reminder That Bitcoin’s Greatest Feature Isn’t Price...
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In This Issue:
When Banks Collapse, Bitcoin Doesn’t Blink
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Traders Shift Focus To The Fed
Ethereum Has A Validator Queue
Coinbase To Tokenize Stocks
The U.S. Senate Passes The GENIUS Act
JPMorgan Teams Up With Base
Pump Alert: Bitcoin About to Explode? Major Crypto Law Hits TODAY!
When Banks Collapse, Bitcoin Doesn’t Blink
Tensions are once again rising in the Middle East.
What began as a series of border clashes and political posturing has escalated into something far more serious – airstrikes, civilian displacement, and growing global concern. History shows that war doesn’t pause for economic stability. Local currencies collapse. Banks become unreliable. Financial survival becomes a daily grind.
Before the rise of banks, wealth was defined by what you physically held. If you were forced to flee – castle or hut – your net worth came down to what you could carry: gold, livestock, tools, or valuables. For nobles and peasants alike, wealth was tangible, fragile, and largely immobile. In rare cases, a respected name might open doors across borders. But even then, survival hinged on the weight of your hands and the strength of your back. There were no wire transfers, no digital wallets – just what you could transport or hide.
The modern banking system changed that. Beginning in the 1800s, banks revolutionized how we store and move capital, fueling both personal savings and global commerce. In times of peace, they’re efficient and useful. But in times of war or crisis, their fragility is exposed. Banks can freeze. Accounts can be seized. Entire systems can collapse under political pressure or chaos. For people in crisis, access to money can vanish overnight. That’s when the need for borderless, neutral, and decentralized financial infrastructure becomes urgent – not theoretical.
In many ways, banks introduced new risks that didn’t exist when wealth was held directly. Before custodial institutions, the primary threat was physical theft. Now, wealth can be frozen, censored, or vaporized at the system level. No one – from billionaires to subsistence merchants – is immune from the same foundational question: how do you preserve value, access it when needed, and move it without friction or vulnerability?
Let’s look at the common legacy stores of wealth and their limitations:
Gold is heavy. It’s only a real burden when dealing with millions – but that’s kind of the point. The fact that it can’t be moved easily is the problem. Storage and transport are expensive and logistically complex. Good luck evacuating with it.
Real estate is worse. You can’t take it with you – and you probably can’t sell it in a crisis. Property is illiquid, costly to maintain, and subject to market volatility, taxes, and political risk. It’s an asset built for peace, not emergency.
Stocks and bonds are the default for the middle class in stable economies. They offer liquidity and growth, but they’re deeply tied to macro conditions. When geopolitical risk rises, markets freeze or tank. The value you thought you had can evaporate just when you need it most.
That brings us to crypto – which, for all its volatility, solves for one critical problem: portable, non-custodial, seizure-resistant wealth.
Still, even most crypto holders don’t fully appreciate the advantages of their assets. Holding BTC or USDT on Coinbase or Kraken isn’t that different from holding TSLA or USD in a Schwab account. When you need local fiat – to buy a house, move across state lines, or escape conflict – you still have to sell and wait for a withdrawal. That means banking delays, regulatory friction, or outright denial can still get in the way.
But when you don’t need to convert to fiat – when you can spend, store, or send crypto directly – everything changes.
Crypto markets are open 24/7. There’s no closing bell. No weekend delays.
Crypto is increasingly accepted as a means of payment. That’s not hypothetical – it’s happening.
And crypto is universal. Bitcoin doesn’t need a Japanese, Israeli, or Salvadoran version. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin – everywhere. Fiat is fragmented. A dollar isn’t a euro, isn’t a yen, isn’t a peso. Value gets lost in translation. Crypto speaks one language.
But here’s the most powerful part – and the reason this all ties back to conflict zones like the Middle East: crypto doesn’t have to be held by a bank, or even stored on a device. It can live entirely in your mind.
With a memorized seed phrase, your net worth becomes invisible. No border guard, no military checkpoint, no corrupt official can see it, steal it, or freeze it. If your hardware wallet is destroyed, lost, or confiscated, you haven’t lost a thing. As long as you know your phrase, you can restore your assets from anywhere on Earth.
Here’s what a recovery phrase looks like – randomly generated by ChatGPT, and not connected to any wallet:
curtain mushroom lava hammer canyon journey foil swing knife dentist sunset wrap
It looks silly at first. But with a bit of repetition – grouping the words, finding rhythm – anyone can memorize it. And when the stakes are high, they do.
That’s the magic of this technology. That’s why Bitcoin was invented. It’s not just about ETFs, corporate balance sheets, or even U.S. politics. It’s about protecting value when everything else is falling apart.
I’m bullish on Bitcoin for all the traditional reasons – but what really matters is that it works when nothing else does.
So whatever this dip is – however far it goes – I’m not sweating it. Bitcoin is too powerful, too useful, and too global to be stopped. Even if a full-blown war erupts and risk assets get crushed, Bitcoin will survive. Eventually, it will thrive.
If you’re in a vulnerable part of the world right now, stay safe. Protect your family. And don’t underestimate the value of digital, borderless money. Not just as an investment – but as insurance.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range just below the $112,000 resistance, with the price currently hovering around $104,600. The chart shows clear horizontal support at $105,787 and dynamic support from the 50-day moving average – which has once again provided a modest bounce after being tested multiple times this month.
So far, the structure remains healthy but indecisive. BTC is printing a series of higher lows since the March bottom, but the repeated rejection near $112,000 raises the possibility of a developing lower high – a potential early signal of waning bullish momentum if follow-through selling emerges. Volume is declining slightly, suggesting a wait-and-see mode as the market anticipates macro events like the Fed meeting.
Overall, until Bitcoin breaks above $112K with conviction or loses $105K and the 50 MA, this chop is likely to continue. Bulls want to see a clean breakout and strong candle close above resistance, while bears are watching for a break back below $100,718 to open up downside potential toward $92,817.
Stocks Wobble As Traders Shift Focus To The Fed
Markets showed modest movement Tuesday as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision and updated economic projections. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while Treasuries remained flat with the 10-year yield holding at 4.38%. The dollar softened after posting its biggest one-day gain in a month. Traders widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, but focus has shifted to the Fed’s revised forecasts for growth, unemployment, and inflation amid growing geopolitical and trade uncertainties tied to Trump’s tariff agenda.
The oil market eased slightly, with Brent crude falling below $76 per barrel after surging nearly 10% last week on the heels of Israel’s strikes on Iran. Although the conflict has had a limited market impact so far, concerns remain that U.S. involvement could trigger broader supply disruptions and stoke inflation. BlackRock’s Ursula Marchioni noted that further escalation could become a significant inflationary driver and weigh on global growth.
In other developments, top U.S. bank regulators are considering reducing a key capital buffer by as much as 1.5 percentage points for the largest banks, aiming to improve liquidity and trading efficiency in the $29 trillion Treasuries market. Meanwhile, Airbus plans to increase dividend payouts to shareholders despite tariff headwinds and supply chain delays. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed that Meta is offering signing bonuses of up to $100 million to lure his AI talent, underscoring the intense competition in the sector. HSBC is reportedly considering a three-day in-office work minimum for all employees. And finally, Saudi airline Flynas experienced a volatile trading debut in Riyadh, highlighting ongoing regional market jitters.
Key Events This Week:
🏦 Central Bank Super Week
Federal Reserve (June 17–18): The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 4.25–4.50%, with investors focused on updated projections (“dot plot”) and Chair Powell’s press conference, during a period of escalating Middle East tensions ictframe.com+15us.econoday.com+15wsj.com+15usbank.com+3reuters.com+3kiplinger.com+3.
Bank of Japan (June 17): The BoJ is likely to keep its ultra-easy policy intact while signaling a slower taper amid global market risks .
Bank of England (June 19) & Swiss National Bank (June 19): Both are expected to hold rates steady, though analysts remain alert to any hawkish or dovish surprises tickergate.com+14ictframe.com+14equalsmoney.com+14.
🇺🇸 U.S. Economic Data
Retail Sales (June 17): May data could reveal cooling consumer spending—Wall Street expects modest weakness following a 0.9% decline
Industrial Production & Housing Starts (June 17–18): Important gauges of factory and construction activity amid growing trade and geopolitical headwinds .
May Inflation (CPI/PPI): Revisions due midweek will impact Fed projections and market expectations
🌍 Geopolitical Pressure
Tensions between Israel and Iran continue to cloud global markets. Oil and safe-haven currencies remain sensitive, while equity and bond markets await central bank signals
🏪 Corporate Earnings & Market Events
Earnings from companies like Kroger, Lennar, Accenture, CarMax, and Tesla's robotaxi rollout are expected to fill out the week's schedule
🔍 What to Watch
Fed’s updated guidance: Any change in rate-cut expectations or emphasis on inflation risks.
BoJ communication: Watch language about global risks and balance sheet tapering.
Retail sales & industrial output: Could reshape expectations about domestic momentum and impact equities.
Geopolitical developments: Especially any escalation in the Middle East that could affect oil, currency, and risk sentiment.
Markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 5:42 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1505
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3463
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $104,701.36
Ether rose 0.6% to $2,527.15
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.38%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $74.06 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,380.26 an ounce
Ethereum Has A Validator Queue
For the first time in a while, there’s a waitlist to become an Ethereum validator. The last time this happened was a brief stretch in August 2024, when the wait was about four days. Before that, back in April, the queue extended for nearly two weeks.
On the surface, rising validator demand is bullish. More ETH getting staked means stronger network security and a smaller circulating supply. But there’s a tradeoff - more ETH staked typically drives yields lower. Still, no one should be staking ETH purely for the rewards. At around 3%, the yield is negligible compared to ETH’s price volatility. Staking returns should be seen as a minor perk - not the reason to hold the asset in the first place.
In other news, over 35 million ETH are now staked - an all-time high. One metric worth watching as the bull market unfolds is the balance between entry and exit queues for staking. If ETH surges and the exit queue begins to outweigh the entry queue, take it as a potential red flag. For those looking to sell, remember that exit times could balloon - possibly stretching to weeks, much like the longest entry delays last year. If ETH retests its all-time highs, it might be smart to exit your staking position early to avoid being locked in when you want flexibility most.
Coinbase To Tokenize Stocks
Coinbase is officially seeking SEC approval to offer tokenized stocks, after months of hinting at plans to put COIN on the blockchain. The move signals a clear shift into direct competition with brokerages like Robinhood and Kraken – which have already begun dabbling in this space. According to Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, the initiative is now a top priority.
Supporters of tokenized equities argue the model could slash trading fees, enable near–instant settlement, and unlock 24/7 trading – a natural fit for the crypto–native world. Critics, however, highlight challenges such as thin liquidity and regulatory ambiguity as major hurdles to adoption.
Starting with COIN is an obvious choice – it’s symbolic, intuitive, and recognizable. Personally, I’m excited for the day stock trading becomes as fast, cheap, and accessible as crypto. Fractionalization, instant settlement, and around–the–clock access aren’t just nice features – they’re inevitable upgrades. This move could also serve as a powerful tailwind for COIN stock itself, plugging crypto–native traders directly into traditional markets.
The U.S. Senate Passes The GENIUS Act
It’s official – the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act – better known as the GENIUS Act – has passed its final Senate vote with strong bipartisan support. The bill received 68 votes in favor and 30 against. It now heads to the House, and assuming it clears that hurdle, it’s expected to land on the president’s desk for signature.
Donald Trump recently weighed in: “We are not done yet. My administration is working with Congress to pass the GENIUS Act, supporting the creation of dollar-backed stablecoins.”
I’m hopeful Congress keeps the momentum going and gets this across the finish line.
JPMorgan Teams Up With Base
I’ll be blunt – I didn’t see this coming. While I’ve long believed banks and financial institutions would eventually migrate to crypto rails to stay relevant, I didn’t expect JPMorgan to launch its JPMD token on Base this soon. This move isn’t just a major vote of confidence for Coinbase and Base – it’s also a significant endorsement of Ethereum, the Layer 1 that underpins it all.
JPMorgan’s use of JPMD may not target retail, but the signal is loud and clear: traditional finance sees real value in this infrastructure. And the timing couldn’t be better. Just days ago, a Cantor analyst made waves by calling Solana the superior treasury asset – citing better tech and stronger long-term potential.
But JPMorgan’s decision is a powerful reminder that Ethereum remains the foundation for institutional blockchain adoption.
Pump Alert: Bitcoin About to Explode? Major Crypto Law Hits TODAY!
Discover Bitcoin Yield: https://archpublic.com/
Today’s show is packed with massive news that could reshape crypto markets. The GENIUS stablecoin bill is heading for a final Senate vote, with Trump’s deep crypto ties under fresh scrutiny. Meanwhile, Solana is making waves as a potential treasury asset, with Cantor Fitzgerald backing multiple SOL treasury firms and CoinShares filing for a spot Solana ETF. We’re joined by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Arch Public’s Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway to break down what it all means for Bitcoin, ETFs, and crypto adoption.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
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