The Wolf Den #1217 - The Dow Turns 129: A Legacy Still Moving Markets
That's an old index.
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⚡️ Our New Sponsor has a Special Announcement! ⚡️
Last week, I introduced a new sponsor, a company I connected with after some great conversations and an in-person meeting at the Bitcoin Conference in Vegas -Peoples Reserve.
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Having teamed up with Peoples Reserve, I know we’re about to find out this weekend if their Bitcoin-powered mortgage interest rates will beat the average crypto industry borrowing rates (10–16% APR) or even compete with traditional finance rates (7.5% Prime Interest Rate).
I’ll revisit the interest rate announcement in Monday’s issue. To say the least, I think these borrow rates can end up being something that launches Bitcoin Powered Finance into the mainstream spotlight!
Exciting times for the industry, check out PeoplesReserve.com to learn more.
In This Issue:
The Dow Turns 129: A Legacy Still Moving Markets
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Geopolitical Tensions Shake Markets: Stocks Down, Oil And Gold Surge
Etherealize Releases Bullish ETH Predictions
Trump Endorses GENIUS And Market Structure Bill
Tether Continues To Bolster Its Investments
Coinbase Is Releasing An Amazing Credit Card
Bitcoin To $200,000 By The End Of 2025? Here's Why!
The Dow Turns 129: A Legacy Still Moving Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average doesn’t get much love these days. It’s overshadowed by the S&P 500 and outpaced by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. It’s treated like a market relic – respected, but rarely the center of attention. Yet it’s the original benchmark. A living time capsule. And despite its quirks, the Dow has quietly chronicled America’s evolution from industrial powerhouse to financial superpower. It’s older than the Model T, the Federal Reserve, and even the concept of GDP. So today, we’re giving the Dow its moment.
What most people don’t realize is that the Dow just celebrated a birthday – 129 years old on May 26. It’s the second-oldest index in existence, behind only the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The index dates all the way back to 1896, first calculated by Charles Dow, co-founder of both The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company.
If you wanted to “buy the Dow” back in the early days – or even into the mid-20th century – you couldn’t. The Dow wasn’t an investable index. It was simply a barometer – a tool to measure the health and direction of the industrial economy. Investors had to buy shares of individual companies directly, often in large lots and at a high cost. Technically, you could replicate the Dow by buying its components, but this was difficult, expensive, and inaccessible to most people. We take a lot for granted today.
In honor of the Dow’s 129th year, here are some facts you may not know:
The Dow started with 12 stocks, expanded to 20 in 1916, and reached 30 in 1928 – where it remains today. By contrast, the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 have much broader exposure.
None of the original 12 companies are still in the index. General Electric was the last holdout but was removed in October 2018 due to declining relevance. (Fun fact: GE was also removed in 1898 and again in 1901.)
A committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices – a joint venture between S&P Global, CME Group, and News Corp – decides which companies are included.
The Dow’s best year? An 82% gain in 1915, during World War I.
Its worst? A 53% loss in 1931 during the Great Depression.
The Dow is price-weighted, meaning companies with higher share prices have more influence, regardless of their actual market cap. This can distort performance compared to the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
Despite the word “Average” in its name, the Dow isn’t a true average – it’s an index with a divisor that adjusts for splits and changes.
In the 1990s, the Dow rose for nine straight years.
It fell 20.5% on December 14, 1914, at the onset of WWI – but its worst day came on October 19, 1987 (Black Monday), with a 22.6% crash.
The Dow has gained double digits in a single day nine times. The most recent was March 24, 2020, during the post-COVID rebound. Its biggest one-day gain? March 15, 1933 – a 15.3% jump.
To visualize the long-term growth: the Dow closed at 100 in 1906, hit 1,000 in 1972, crossed 10,000 in 1999, and peaked above 45,000 in December 2024. The fastest 1,000-point jump came in March 2021 – from 32,000 to 33,000 in five days.
And perhaps most important: the Dow has helped create generational wealth. From 40.94 to over 45,000 – and that’s not even including dividends.
With the crypto market cooling off a bit and no major headlines dominating the cycle, I figured it was the perfect time to explore a topic I’ve never covered before. I hope you found it interesting. At the very least, it’s a helpful reminder of how far financial markets – and the tools we use to track them – have come.
This space will look vastly different in five years. Let alone 129.
Credit where it’s due: today’s piece was inspired by a great blog post, 12 Amazing Facts About the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Its Birthday. Every fact in this section came from that source, so if you liked this, go give them a read – and a thank you.
And if the market pulls back from here, don’t sweat it. Use the dip to reassess or accumulate – or just appreciate that it’s giving everything a chance to cool off.
Personally, I’m not concerned. Not even a little.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos - one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum - is an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I provide an Aptos review, showcasing all the exciting announcements and milestones the network is achieving. This week, I want to start with the announcement that starting on June 30, the Aptos ecosystem will begin shifting from its older Coin framework to a new, more advanced standard called Fungible Asset (FA), introduced in late 2023. This new standard is designed to improve safety, flexibility, and compatibility, enabling more complex applications in areas like DeFi and payments.
Do note that no actions are required from users and the transition will occur seamlessly across the network. Below are four main reasons why this upgrade matters:
“Seamless compatibility: One unified FA standard removes Coin vs. FA branching across wallets, CEXs, DeFi protocols and custodians.
Smarter token storage: All balances collapse into deterministic FungibleStore objects, shrinking global state and speeding up node spin-up & state‑sync.
Protocol simplification: Deprecating coin & aptos_account trims the VM surface → slimmer audits, smaller attack area.
Future-proof composability: Clean, extensible design avoids the ‘bolt-on’ complexity wall that legacy Coins hit, keeping integrations simple as DeFi/RWA use-cases evolve.”
Up next, I want to highlight this video of Aptos Labs’ Head of Capital Markets Solomon Tesfaye at the New York Stock Exchange talking about what’s next for digital assets.
Here’s what Fintech.tv said about the interview: “Solomon Tesfaye, Head of Capital Markets at Aptos Labs, joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss he rapidly evolving landscape of the crypto IPO market, highlighting Circle’s recent successful IPO and Gemini’s confidential filing for an IPO.”
Last but not least for this week, I want to highlight that the Aptos stablecoin market cap is currently $1.33 billion - a 256% increase since June 2024. You can track the metrics on DeFiLlama HERE.
That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love - they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined range, with price once again reacting cleanly off the 50-day moving average (blue) – a key dynamic support level that has consistently provided footing throughout this uptrend. Today’s candle is printing a modest bounce from that zone after briefly dipping below $105K, suggesting buyers are still defending trend structure despite recent volatility.
On the upside, $112,000 remains the key resistance. Price failed to break through this level twice in the past month, confirming it as a significant supply zone. A daily close above that threshold would mark a breakout and likely fuel momentum toward fresh highs.
Support is building around the $99,500–$100,000 region – a critical horizontal level that aligns with a prior breakout zone and marks the recent higher low. Below that, the next major support rests around $92,800, followed by $88,800, which served as the last major consolidation range before April’s breakout.
Momentum-wise, the rejection at $112K could still evolve into a lower high, but that scenario remains unconfirmed as long as price holds above $100K. The reaction off the 50 MA – the second clean tag in recent weeks – keeps the short-term structure intact. However, the lower volume on this bounce suggests some caution is still warranted.
From a broader trend perspective, Bitcoin is consolidating within a bullish continuation structure. As long as the 50-day MA continues to act as dynamic support and the $100K zone holds, the market retains a constructive bias. A strong daily close above $112K would likely signal the next leg higher – potentially toward $120K and beyond.
For now, this is a healthy range within an uptrend. Bulls want to see strength on the next test of resistance. Bears need a break of $100K to flip the narrative. Until then, this remains a textbook pause within trend – not a reversal.
Geopolitical Tensions Shake Markets: Stocks Down, Oil And Gold Surge
Markets were rattled Thursday night after Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile sites, prompting a swift reaction across global assets. Oil surged dramatically, with Brent crude jumping as much as 13% intraday before closing up 8.3% – its sharpest single-day move since March 2022. Gold also rose 1%, reaching a one-month high as investors moved toward traditional safe havens. Stocks, meanwhile, slumped. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.2%, with global equity indexes retreating from recent highs.
The attack marks a significant escalation in Middle East tensions, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict. While markets responded in classical “risk-off” fashion – buying gold, selling stocks, and lifting oil – traders are now watching closely to see how Iran responds. Tehran has vowed retaliation against Israel and potentially U.S. assets, while Israel has signaled its intent to continue operations for “as many days as it takes.”
Despite the initial shock, some investors are viewing this event as a short-term disruption rather than the start of a prolonged crisis. Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier noted that price reactions in historical safe havens have been “minimal” and expects the conflict to remain localized. However, energy and defense sectors saw gains in premarket trading – with Exxon Mobil, Chevron, RTX Corp., and Lockheed Martin all up more than 2.5%. Travel and airline stocks, predictably, took a hit.
The timing of the strike is particularly sensitive. Global equities had just rebounded from an April slump triggered by President Trump’s tariff war. An index of global stocks even touched a new record on Thursday before the attack. This geopolitical shock now threatens that momentum and could inject fresh inflation risks into the macro picture if oil prices remain elevated. Rising crude could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle just as traders are pricing in two rate cuts later this year.
Elsewhere, headlines added to the week’s intensity. Air India’s Boeing Dreamliner crash is under investigation. Meanwhile, reports surfaced that Walmart and Amazon are considering issuing their own stablecoins – potentially entering a race to bring crypto payments to the mainstream. And in Europe, French bank BPCE announced a €6.4 billion deal to acquire Portugal’s Novo Banco from Lone Star, underscoring the continued reshaping of European finance.
Markets remain on edge – and Friday’s trading will offer a clearer picture of whether this is a fleeting headline or the beginning of a larger shift in risk sentiment.
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 1.2% as of 6:11 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1520
The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3547
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 144.08 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $104,805.12
Ether fell 4.6% to $2,520.4
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.49%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 8.5% to $73.84 a barrel
Spot gold rose 1% to $3,420.90 an ounce
Etherealize Releases Bullish ETH Predictions
Below is the image that made its rounds on X yesterday:
First up – metaphorically, I get why people call ETH “digital oil.” It has utility, it powers transactions, and its role in the Ethereum economy makes the comparison appealing. But comparing Ethereum’s market cap to that of physical oil – or worse, averaging them together – makes no sense. One is a decentralized protocol with utility-driven demand; the other is a consumable commodity with global industrial use.
Second – and this is just as important – I wish there were clearer time expectations attached to some of these predictions. I know they say “long-term valuation,” but does that mean a decade? Five decades? A century? Going from $2,800 to $740,000 – which Etherealize calls the average projection, not even the high end – implies a 26,328.6% increase, or a 264x return.
Price targets like this are frustrating. I support what Etherealize is doing in terms of business development, education, and outreach. And I’m not against discussing future valuations if it’s done responsibly. But publishing anything that points to a 264x return is reckless. It’s irresponsible. I know some ETH investors will take issue with that, but the truth is these kinds of wild projections do more harm than good. They create false expectations, attract the wrong kind of attention, and ultimately undermine the credibility of the ecosystem.
I’d love to be wrong – I hold ETH, and if it hits $740,000, I’ll be thrilled. And sure, there’s always a chance I am wrong. But for every outrageous prediction I push back on, maybe one in a hundred ends up being even close to right. I owe it to you to be honest: the Ethereum community’s time is better spent building, innovating, and growing – not dreaming about how ETH might 264x.
If you are interested in reading the full report, you can do so HERE.
Trump Endorses GENIUS And Market Structure Bill
Trump dialed into the Coinbase State of Crypto Summit this week with what appeared to be a pre-recorded video. It featured the usual broad, self-congratulatory statements about crypto – touting the “honor” of being the first crypto president and crediting his administration with having already done so much for the space. Typical stuff.
But at the end of the brief speech, he dropped something more specific – a line I haven’t heard him explicitly say before:
“We are not done yet. My administration is working with Congress to pass the GENIUS Act, supporting the creation of dollar-backed stablecoins. We also will be working to create clear and simple market frameworks that will allow America to dominate the future of crypto and Bitcoin. Congratulations…”
The first part refers to the GENIUS Act, which would support regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin issuance. The second part – the “clear and simple market frameworks” – appears to refer to the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, a critical piece of legislation still under debate in Congress. If passed, that bill would provide the clarity this industry has been demanding: clear rules for exchanges, better investor protections, regulatory certainty, and a foundation for meaningful innovation in U.S. crypto markets.
There hasn’t been much discussion lately about the U.S. buying Bitcoin in budget-neutral ways – something that's been floating in the background since the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement. But it’s likely that Congress is simply preoccupied. With the GENIUS Act and the Digital Asset Market Structure Act still on the table, there’s no bandwidth to take up that conversation yet.
Once these two bills are resolved – assuming they pass – that’s when the real game begins.
Tether Continues To Bolster Its Investments
Tether Investments has acquired a major stake in Elemental Altus Royalties Corp., a Canadian gold-focused royalty company. The move aligns with Tether’s broader strategy to integrate long-term, stable assets like gold and Bitcoin into its ecosystem as both a financial hedge and a foundation for decentralized digital infrastructure.
On June 10, 2025, Tether purchased nearly 32% of Elemental’s outstanding shares from La Mancha Investments through a private offshore deal. Additionally, Tether secured an option agreement with AlphaStream and its subsidiary, giving it the right (but not the obligation) to acquire another 34 million shares of Elemental at a later date.
“Tether’s growing investments in gold and Bitcoin reflect our forward-looking strategy to build a more resilient and transparent financial system. Just as Bitcoin provides the ultimate decentralized hedge against monetary inflation, gold continues to be a time-tested store of value. By gaining exposure to a diversified portfolio of gold royalties through Elemental, we are strengthening the backing of our ecosystem while advancing Tether Gold and future commodity-backed digital assets. This is not just about investment—it’s about building financial infrastructure for the next century.”
Coinbase Is Releasing An Amazing Credit Card
Crypto credit cards are all the rage right now. Credit to Robinhood for doing the first crypto credit card that seemed pretty badass, and then Gemini, who also has a sick one. Now Coinbase has thrown its hat in the ring and has a waitlist up for this one, offering 4% back on Bitcoin. The catch is there will be an annual fee, you have to be a Coinbase One member - which will release at a new basic price - and to get the full 4%, you have to have assets on Coinbase. They haven’t announced what the required amount is yet. I have no idea if it will be $1,000 or something very steep like $100,000.
Here are some of the other benefits:
The staking reward really stands out to me. Depending on how much you have staked on Coinbase, that boost could pay off significantly. Again, I don’t know the exact terms yet, but for someone who trades on Coinbase, keeps assets on the platform, and is open to a new credit card, this looks like a no-brainer. Also, I wasn’t paid to say any of this - I get nothing. This is just an honest review.
Bitcoin To $200,000 By The End Of 2025? Here's Why!
Sponsored by Aptos, check it out HERE.
With U.S. inflation coming in lower than expected, Bitcoin’s path to $200K by year-end is suddenly on the table. I’m joined by Alice Liu from CoinMarketCap and Edan Yago from BitcoinOS to break down the bullish BTC setup, the ETH ETF surge, GameStop’s crypto pivot, and the Senate’s push to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world.
In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.
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Peoples Reserve - Use Bitcoin as pristine collateral with Peoples Reserve - where wealth is built smarter through Bitcoin-powered finance.
Trading Alpha - Trade With Confidence! My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use code '25OFF' for a 25% discount.
X - I spend most of my time on X, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.