The Wolf Den #1212 - No More Capital Gains Tax? Here’s What That Could Mean
Would it be good or bad?
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+3.27 additional Bitcoin
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In This Issue:
No More Capital Gains Tax? Here’s What That Could Mean
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Markets Edge Up as Trump-Musk Rift Cools
Who Is Responsible For BTC and ETH ETF Inflows?
Truth Social Files With SEC For A Bitcoin ETF
Circle Stock Soars On Opening Day!
World Liberty Financial Sends Cease-and-Desist To Fake Trump Crypto Wallet
Massive Breakthrough For Bitcoin? JPMorgan To Lend Against Crypto
No More Capital Gains Tax? Here’s What That Could Mean
Stop and really think about this for a second:
What if Trump actually eliminated capital gains taxes on crypto?
I know it sounds wild – maybe even a little delusional – but it’s not as far-fetched as it seems. Would our bags skyrocket overnight? Would whales dump their long-held positions en masse? Could this be the single greatest catalyst in crypto history… or the most legendary top signal the market’s ever seen?
Let’s unpack it.
First, a little context – because before we dive into the possibilities, it’s important to clarify what was actually said. Despite the headlines floating around, Trump did not explicitly call for eliminating capital gains taxes on crypto. That hasn’t stopped a wave of speculation, but the facts deserve a closer look.
Nearly every article either outright claims or heavily implies that Trump said the quote below. They all point to a “recent interview” – the same one Michael Saylor referenced – but that interview is nowhere to be found online. Maybe I’m missing something… or maybe every one of these journalists is. I’m leaning toward the latter.
The whole story is bizarre. Credit where it’s due – Cointelegraph published a piece that set the record straight:
So, what has Trump actually said about taxes in general? He’s a Republican – and like many in his party, he’s not exactly a fan. His “One Big Beautiful Bill” lays out broad tax reform in plain English. And knowing Trump – how often he repeats himself and makes sure everyone hears his message – it’s hard to believe he’d quietly propose something as massive as eliminating capital gains taxes, only for it to disappear without a trace.
Here’s the fully edited version, ready to go:
Here’s Trump from just the other day:
“We’re going to make a lot of money, and we’re going to cut taxes for the people of this country. It’ll take a little while before we do that, but we’re going to be cutting taxes, and it’s possible we’ll do a complete tax cut, because I think the tariffs will be enough to cut all of the income tax.”
Trump loves to talk about taxes.
As for crypto, it’s clearly a priority – but it’s not the priority. He seems far more focused on tariffs, the Fed, his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” sparring with Elon, and broad economic policies that impact trade and national growth. If he manages to push some of those top-line goals through, crypto could easily move up his list. But there’s no guarantee it will.
So, no – Trump hasn’t said anything specific about eliminating capital gains taxes on crypto. But he has made it clear he wants the U.S. to lead the world in crypto. And he loves cutting taxes – even if it means printing more dollars. That alone makes it plausible that he’d support such a policy.
Let’s not forget: countries like Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE, El Salvador, Hong Kong, and parts of the Caribbean already get it. They’ve recognized that zero or low capital gains taxes on Bitcoin drive adoption, fuel innovation, and boost investor confidence. It’s not crazy to think the U.S. or other major economies might follow that lead at some point.
Now, let’s go back to the original question: what if Trump randomly posted something like this?
“I love crypto, I love it very much – tremendous potential. But these capital gains taxes? Killing American innovation. We’re going to cut them, keep crypto in the USA, and WIN like never before. Make America the Crypto Capital of the World!”
The immediate market reaction? Likely a strong move upward. No, a Trump tweet doesn’t magically turn into law – any policy like this would take time and legislation. But even the prospect of eliminating capital gains on crypto could bring in new investors, push existing ones to double down, and drive prices higher. Personally, if I had good reason to believe I wouldn’t owe taxes on my gains, I’d probably reinvest the money I’ve set aside for taxes right back into crypto.
Yes, I do sell occasionally. And yes – shocker – I pay taxes on those gains.
Longer term, the market’s reaction would get more complex. Eliminating capital gains taxes would almost certainly increase volatility. Without short- or long-term tax penalties, traders would have little reason to hold, leading to more churn. Even if only long-term gains were exempted, trading activity would still rise – just to a lesser degree.
In short, fewer tax barriers means more freedom to sell. That could drive prices up during bullish periods, but also deepen dips during bearish ones. If the policy lands late in a bull market, it might even be seen as a top signal. But if it drops in a bear market? It could be the spark that lights the next run.
Over the long haul, there would also be political risk. Lawmakers would push back – and the opposition’s case is simple: Why should crypto get a special exemption when the U.S. is already facing serious tax revenue shortfalls? Add in the likelihood of increased volatility, and you could see institutional investors pull back just when the space is maturing.
So no – eliminating capital gains taxes on crypto isn’t pure upside. There are real trade-offs.
That’s all for this week. Stick around for the Aptos weekly review and the rest of the news below. Crypto’s been unusually quiet for nearly a month now – something’s got to give soon. Hopefully it’s not just more trash talk between Trump and Elon.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos - one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum - is an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I provide an Aptos review, showcasing all the exciting announcements and milestones the network is achieving. This week I’m starting with two legendary posts from Wu Blockchain and Aptos, highlighting Avery Ching testifying before Congress.
And this…
To watch the full committee hearing, click the video below. It’s pretty rare to see someone from the crypto space make it all the way to Congress - let alone a representative from the world of DeFi.
Next, I want to share this website: on-aptos.com
On the platform, you can select one of four options: Stablecoins, Bitcoin Assets, Liquid Staking, and DeFi Protocols. Let’s click on ‘Bitcoin Assets’ and see what the dashboard shows:
The formatting is sleek and highly functional. Honestly, every chain should have a dashboard like this. Below is a snippet of Aptos celebrating a milestone: reaching $400 million in Bitcoin bridged to the chain.
That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love - they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The Bitcoin daily chart is presenting a technically rich picture, with clear structure and key moving average interactions. Most notably, we’ve seen a breakdown from a classic head and shoulders pattern. The neckline has been broken decisively and is now being retested from below – a common behavior when former support becomes resistance. Traders often watch this level closely for rejection or reclamation.
Despite the breakdown, price is currently finding support at the 50-day moving average, which is rising and suggests underlying trend strength. This bounce has brought Bitcoin back to retest the neckline zone, offering a potential inflection point. A reclaim above the neckline could invalidate the bearish pattern and reignite momentum. Conversely, if price is rejected here, the head and shoulders may play out further, with targets aligning near the $92K level.
Momentum is still neutral to slightly bullish, and volume has picked up on the bounce – which is a positive sign. All in all, this is a key moment for Bitcoin. Holding above the 50 MA and reclaiming the neckline would shift the bias back toward the bulls.
Losing the 50 MA could invite further downside.
Markets Edge Up as Trump-Musk Rift Cools
U.S. stock futures rose ahead of the key jobs report, with signs emerging that tensions between Donald Trump and Elon Musk may be cooling. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Tesla rebounded 4.3% after a steep drop the previous day. The bounce came as Musk appeared open to de-escalating the public feud, which began after he criticized Trump’s tax bill and Trump retaliated by threatening to cut Tesla’s government contracts.
Markets showed modest movement elsewhere as traders awaited the nonfarm payrolls report for insights into the economy amid the ongoing trade war. Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year note falling to 4.37%, and the dollar edged up 0.2%. Soft labor data earlier in the week reinforced expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Economists are now projecting payroll growth to slow to 125,000 for May.
In corporate news, Lululemon shares plunged up to 22% after cutting its earnings forecast. H&M is moving closer to private ownership, Siemens Energy is poised to resume dividend payments for the first time in four years, and Autodoc SE is planning an IPO in Frankfurt as European markets stabilize.
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 10:08 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1413
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 144.10 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.1860 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3533
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $103,639.59
Ether rose 2.7% to $2,463.61
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.37%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.54%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.3% to $65.14 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,360.92 an ounce
Who Is Responsible For BTC and ETH ETF Inflows?
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are really doing God’s work sharing these ETF insights.
I went ahead and calculated the category breakdowns. Everything below the government category came in under 1.95%, so I figured it wasn’t worth displaying.
Investment Advisor – 48.97%
Hedge Fund Manager – 32.95%
Brokerage – 10.19%
Holding Company – 2.84%
Government – 1.95%
Investment Advisor – 54.50%
Hedge Fund Manager – 22.89%
Brokerage – 14.90%
Private Equity – 3.73%
Holding Company – 1.61%
As you can see, the groups are generally in the same order and the percentages are fairly close to each other. Bitcoin has a wider variety of purchasers, but the main categories, ‘investment advisors,’ ‘hedge fund manager,’ and ‘brokerage,’ are roughly the same for both BTC and ETH.
Truth Social Files With SEC For A Bitcoin ETF
Truth Social, the media arm of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), has filed paperwork with the SEC to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF that would trade on NYSE Arca. The ETF would directly hold Bitcoin and track its market price.
The move follows a related exchange filing by NYSE Arca and includes a unique twist: the ETF's risk section highlights the potential regulatory impact of Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including his executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the SEC’s new crypto task force. This marks the first time an ETF filing has cited the fund advisor in the risk disclosures.
Who would’ve guessed that a company Trump holds a significant stake in would file for a Bitcoin ETF - and even cite itself in the risk section of its own SEC filing? If approved, the ETF would deepen Trump’s involvement in crypto, following TMTG’s recent $2.5 billion plan to build a Bitcoin treasury. The fund would also join a growing list of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs already managing $126 billion in assets.
Circle Stock Soars On Opening Day!
Holy cow. This past week, expectations for Circle’s IPO kept climbing - and when it finally launched, the stock surged as high as $103.75 before closing the day at $83. Trading was halted three times due to volatility. Nobody saw this level of excitement coming, and it says a lot.
First, the valuation looks overcooked. We’ve seen this movie before with Coinbase - a profitable exchange that soared on day one, only to spend years working its way back to its IPO price. On its opening day, COIN hit an intraday high of $429.54. Today, it trades closer to $252.
Second, this could open the floodgates for crypto companies looking to go public. Even if Circle cools off from here, the message is clear: investor appetite is there. Other companies will take notice - and so will the funds looking to get in early. This has the potential to shape into a powerful new narrative for the sector.
World Liberty Financial Sends Cease-and-Desist To Fake Trump Crypto Wallet
This makes no sense to me. Bloomberg reports that WLFI - a firm Donald Trump is officially involved with - sent a cease-and-desist to Fight Fight Fight LLC, the group behind the $TRUMP memecoin, for announcing an unauthorized “Official Trump Wallet.” Yet just two weeks ago, Trump hosted a dinner for $TRUMP holders. So… what’s going on? How is there this much confusion from within the Trump camp itself? Who actually controls the Trump brand in crypto? At this point, I’m not even sure which project is official - but both are clearly competing for legitimacy.
Massive Breakthrough For Bitcoin? JPMorgan To Lend Against Crypto
Today on the show, I’m joined by James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, and Edan Yago, Core Contributor to BitcoinOS, to break down the massive shift as JPMorgan starts lending against crypto ETFs and investment advisors become the top holders of spot Bitcoin ETFs. We’ll also cover Circle’s $1.1 billion IPO, K-Pop’s wild Bitcoin pivot, and what the Fed’s next move could mean for BTC’s price.
In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.