The Wolf Den #1204 - Germany Made A MASSIVE Mistake
They sold.
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In This Issue:
Germany Made A MASSIVE Mistake
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Stock Futures Steady As Treasury Concerns Ease
Germany Made A Huge Mistake
Kraken Is Preparing To Offer Tokenized Stocks
SUI DEX Hacked
Bitcoin Hits $111K, Will The Massive Rally Continue? | Mark Yusko
Germany Made A MASSIVE Mistake
In yesterday’s newsletter, I broke down the advantage the United States holds over the rest of the world when it comes to Bitcoin. But what if I told you that Europe’s largest country by both economy and population once held a massive stash of Bitcoin – enough to rival the world’s second-largest sovereign holder? With just a bit more accumulation, it could’ve easily claimed that spot for itself.
If you guessed Germany, you’re right.
More specifically, it wasn’t the federal German government, but a German state – Saxony – that held the Bitcoin in question. Still, given the size of the position and the fact that Germany can print its own fiat, this serves as a textbook example of why governments and sovereign entities should never sell Bitcoin prematurely.
Not only did Saxony miss out on Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 – and will continue to miss out on every new all-time high – but it also sold near the bottom. It’s hard to find a clearer case study of what not to do with your Bitcoin.
For context: during the quieter summer months of June and July last year, the German state of Saxony began selling 50,000 BTC it had seized from a movie piracy website. These coins were essentially acquired at no monetary cost – aside from the legal and operational costs of the raid. But 50,000 BTC is no small stash. Among public companies, only Strategy (576,230 BTC) holds more. And among private firms, only Tether (164,000 BTC) and Block (100,521 BTC) exceed that amount.
As for sovereigns, holding 50,000 BTC would have placed Germany just behind the U.K. – and positioned it as a serious contender against the United States in terms of sovereign Bitcoin holdings.
At the time, the state’s Bitcoin was valued between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, with BTC trading in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. Despite the sheer size of the holding, there appeared to be little regard for market sentiment or timing. Saxony began offloading its Bitcoin while the market was already under pressure.
At the same time, the U.S. government had transferred some of its own BTC to Coinbase Prime – typically seen as a precursor to a sale – and Mt. Gox was preparing to return more than 140,000 BTC to creditors. These developments created a cloud of uncertainty and significant downward pressure. Saxony’s sales only added to the weight.
I wrote this about Mt. Gox back in June of last year:
Bitcoin had been trading sideways for months, and Saxony started selling just as price drifted toward $50,000. German Member of Parliament Joana Cotar publicly criticized the decision, calling it “hasty,” “not sensible,” and “counterproductive.” But her warnings fell on deaf ears – she had no control over the Bitcoin, and there was no sign of intervention from higher levels of government.
Now, some reports suggest the sales were legally mandated. Maybe that’s true – I’m not a legal expert on German or Saxon law. But even so, it still feels like a weak excuse. There was no public pushback from Germany’s federal leadership, no official delay or reevaluation of the decision. It seemed the state was content to sell – and it turned out to be a costly mistake.
Today, Bitcoin is trading around $110,000. Saxony’s average sell price was $57,900, according to Cointelegraph. At current prices, the 50,000 BTC it dumped would be worth $5.5 billion – meaning the state missed out on over $2.6 billion in potential gains. It didn’t mark the bottom, but it certainly helped drag prices to their lows.
To be clear, the lesson here isn’t simply “never sell your Bitcoin.” That’s not always practical – and I’ve previously written about the nuance behind that phrase. The real takeaway is this: if you have to sell, and you can choose when, take the market environment into account. You don’t have to perfectly time the top or bottom – nobody can. But you can know whether the market is fearful or greedy. That alone can make a massive difference.
Second, if you’re in the rare position of not needing to sell your Bitcoin, don’t. Over time, governments, institutions, and individuals will continue to position into Bitcoin. Some will panic. Some will be forced to sell. Others will get it wrong. Don’t be like them.
Yes, there are good reasons to sell – especially when it improves your life. But in most cases, selling means moving into fiat (which loses value) or into other assets unlikely to outperform Bitcoin long term.
That’s all for today. Don’t be like Germany – or Saxony. Don’t sell out of short-term fear. Tune out the noise. And remember: sometimes the smartest move is simply having the patience to hold. There are powerful forces that want you to give up your Bitcoin. The longer you resist, the more you win.
Bitcoin is finally hitting all-time highs again. And while that’s worth celebrating, I know many of you are waiting for your altcoins to follow. That day will come – it just needs some time, and probably a bit of help from the Fed. Until then, enjoy the ride – Bitcoin’s doing the heavy lifting.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos - one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum - is an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I provide an Aptos review, showcasing all the exciting announcements and milestones the network is achieving. This week I have to start with this legendary clip of myself, with none other than Avery Ching, the co-founder and CEO of Aptos:
I have some of the highlights of this interview below:
“I’m mostly excited about Aptos becoming the global trading engine… The technology is finally there. You have something like an Aptos that can do payments in under a hundredth of a cent. Finality times… about 600 milliseconds today and going to get faster over time.”
“We are seeing the scale that can rival the largest payment networks in the world, Mastercard, Visa, or all of them at once.”
“With blockchain, we can actually build out systems that are going to be one global market.”
“An example would be like if you want to take out a loan and then make a trade and then upon the trade do another action - you can string all those things together on a blockchain permissionlessly.”
If you want to dive deeper into the interview, Yahoo Finance covered it in an article titled “Aptos CEO says crypto will power ‘one global market’ for everyone.” It’s definitely worth a read, I highly recommend checking it out.
Here’s Avery sharing more on the global trading engine.
Last but not least for Aptos this week - if you want a chance to hear Avery Ching speak, in person, consider attending Permissionless in June. Whenever I get the chance to speak with Avery, I'm always struck by how well he connects the dots. He has a rare ability to zoom out, think big, and make sense of where things are headed - not just for Aptos, but for the entire crypto ecosystem. He’s one of those people who helps put the bigger puzzle together.
That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love - they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin just completed a golden cross on the daily chart – the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average.
This is the third golden cross we've seen since late 2023. Each time, it followed a death cross (where the 50 MA crossed below the 200 MA), which tends to occur at or near cycle bottoms – often a lagging indicator of bearish exhaustion.
Looking at the chart, all three golden crosses occurred within defined accumulation ranges (highlighted by the purple boxes). In each instance, the death cross signaled the end of a local downtrend, and the golden cross confirmed the start of a new bullish trend.
More importantly, every golden cross since late 2023 has led to a strong upward move – even a parabolic advance. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the consistency of this pattern is notable.
I have generally been dismissive of all crosses as lagging indicators, but this trend is clear in the chart.
With Bitcoin now breaking into new all-time highs and volume increasing on the breakout, this signal adds further weight to the bullish case. It suggests the trend is not only intact, but may just be heating up.
Stock Futures Steady As Treasury Concerns Ease
U.S. stock futures drifted on Friday, with the S&P 500 little changed after three straight days of losses. The benchmark index remains on track for its worst week since the tariff-driven selloff that followed President Trump’s announcements in early April. A modest rebound in longer-dated Treasuries helped ease market jitters – 30-year yields dipped by one basis point to 5.03% – providing some relief amid mounting fiscal concerns.
European equities also held steady, while Asian markets were poised to notch a sixth consecutive week of gains. However, trading volumes remained thin across regions. Bond markets have been flashing warning signals all week as investors grapple with America’s swelling debt burden and deficits – fears amplified by Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S.'s top credit rating. Rising yields, especially on longer-term bonds, have deepened worries about the economic outlook, already clouded by elevated borrowing costs and the lingering uncertainty from tariffs.
The fiscal picture darkened further after the House passed Trump’s latest tax bill on Thursday. The sweeping, multi-trillion dollar package is designed to stave off a year-end tax increase – but at the cost of expanding the national debt. Analysts warn that the deteriorating fiscal position will continue to drag on risk assets. “Trump is asking a lot from the bond market, and it’s not clear how much he can ask,” said Leonard Cohen, CEO of Ginjer Asset Management in Paris. “The concerns are clearly more on bonds rather than stocks at the moment.”
The dollar extended its recent slide, falling 0.5% and heading toward its worst week in more than a month. Despite Thursday’s better-than-expected data showing a pickup in business activity, investors remain wary about how fiscal instability might affect appetite for U.S. assets. “The current market environment is still geared toward fading dollar rallies, given ongoing concern over the U.S. economic outlook from tariffs and now geopolitical risks and fiscal concerns,” said Felix Ryan, an analyst at ANZ Banking Group in Sydney.
In commodities, gold was set for its largest weekly gain in over a month, reflecting a flight to safety. Oil, meanwhile, faced its first weekly drop in three as OPEC+ considered a significant production hike – potentially flooding a market already bracing for oversupply.
Kraken Is Preparing To Offer Tokenized Stocks
Kraken announced it is launching tokenized versions of 50 U.S. stocks and ETFs - including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) - to give international users 24/7 access to American equities. Called xStocks, the offering will run on the Solana blockchain and begin rolling out soon across Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Each token will be backed 1:1 by real shares held by Kraken’s partner, Backed Finance, which will manage the purchase and custody of the actual stocks.
It's interesting that Kraken chose Solana over Ethereum. I do still expect most major players to go with Ethereum alone for its scale - or possibly use both ETH and SOL for flexibility. But for Solana holders, this is definitely a win. And yes, full disclosure: I hold Solana myself, so I’ve got a literal stake in the game and want to see both ecosystems succeed. This is good news.
One last point: Coinbase has been relatively quiet on the tokenization front for a while. That said, I’m fully confident they’re working on something behind the scenes. They’ve hinted at it before and might even have a head start we’re not aware of. My guess? One day, out of the blue, Coinbase will drop a major announcement outlining its full tokenization strategy. Until then, we’ll just have to wait and see.
SUI DEX Hacked
Cetus, a decentralized exchange built on the Sui blockchain, has suffered a major exploit that drained over $200 million in digital assets. On-chain data shows a sharp spike in transaction volume, with significant amounts quickly bridged to Ethereum and transferred to new wallets. Some assets on the platform reportedly lost more than half their value in just 24 hours, prompting concerns of a coordinated attack.
Importantly, the exploit appears to stem from a vulnerability within Cetus itself - likely in its smart contracts or platform design - rather than a flaw in the underlying Sui protocol. While Sui’s core infrastructure remains intact, incidents like this can still erode trust in the broader ecosystem.
Yesterday Was Bitcoin Pizza Day
It’s pretty poetic that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,770 on the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Da - the day in 2010 when Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin was nearly worthless, trading for fractions of a cent. Today, those same 10,000 BTC would be worth over $1.1 billion - a staggering 2.7 billion percent increase from the original $41 pizza purchase.
Honestly, I hope Bitcoin Pizza Day becomes much more widely recognized than it currently is. It started as a quirky tradition in crypto circles, something people mentioned once a year. But if it evolved into a broader, global celebration of Bitcoin’s origins and how far it’s come, it could serve as a powerful reminder of the asset’s journey - and a fun way to introduce more people to the space.
Bitcoin Hits $111K, Will The Massive Rally Continue? | Mark Yusko
Bitcoin has smashed a new all-time high of $111,861 on CoinMarketCap—and it happened on Bitcoin Pizza Day! Exactly 15 years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz spent 10,000 BTC on two pizzas in what’s now seen as the first-ever real-world Bitcoin transaction. Today, those two pizzas are worth over $1.1 billion. Absolutely insane!
This historic rally is being fueled by major institutional buying from Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which now holds over 576,000 BTC, and a surge of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs - over $609 million just yesterday. Adding to the momentum, a key stablecoin bill advancing in the U.S. Senate is giving markets hope for long-awaited regulatory clarity under a pro-crypto Trump administration.
In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.