The Wolf Den #1197 - 'Etherium'
Yes, the misspelling is intentional.
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In This Issue:
‘Etherium’
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Market Rally Loses Steam While Dollar Declines
More Details On The Coinbase News
Robinhood Invades Canada - And Leads With Crypto
VanEck Is Launching A Tokenized Fund
Twenty One Capital Buys Bitcoin!
Buy Everything! Crypto Gets A Massive Boost! $9 Billion Into Coinbase?
‘Etherium’
Google searches for “Etherium” are ripping off the bottom - a classic signal that retail interest is starting to return, even if they still can’t spell it right.
I’m not sure if this sudden spike is the result of major accounts cracking jokes on X – and accidentally triggering a wave of curiosity – or if it’s a genuine sign that retail is back… just with a few less brain cells.
Either way, here’s what the search interest for “Ethereum” looks like over the past five years:
When you zoom out, it still feels like we’re just shuffling our feet in the sand – somewhere near the bottom. What’s even more interesting is that when ETH was trading above $4,000 in late 2024, this chart stayed relatively muted. That tells me the rally wasn’t driven by real momentum in Ethereum itself – it was ETH getting pulled up by BTC and broader market sentiment.
I’ll probably be kicking myself for saying this in a few weeks, but the price action and sentiment this time around feel noticeably different.
Again, when I zoom out, I’m reminded of how small this step really is in the grand scheme of things. It’s almost surreal to remember there was a time when people genuinely believed ETH might flip BTC. Looking back now, it feels delusional – like we were living in a simulation, swept up in a narrative that never really had a chance.
The fact that it wasn’t just criticism of ETH on X – but full-blown tribal warfare, fueled by politics, leadership structure, value accrual debates, and outright hostility – is wild in hindsight. People were literally keeping a running tally of how far the price had fallen. That level of obsession says everything.I’ve been trying to put into words just how much harder it’s been for Ethereum.
Sure, Bitcoin and Solana have taken their fair share of heat. I’ve followed Bitcoin’s battles closely – it’s faced attacks from some of the most powerful people in the world. But through it all, the community rallied behind it. Solana, too, was written off after being dragged down by its FTX ties. The skepticism was heavy, but even then, it felt like people were quietly rooting for a comeback.
Ethereum, though? The tone has been different. The criticism hasn’t just been loud – it’s been relentless. And often, it’s come from within the crypto space. Anyone who’s been betrayed or backstabbed knows the sting hits harder when it’s from people you once trusted. This wasn’t just disbelief in ETH – it was people actively rooting for it to fail. That’s what makes its resilience all the more remarkable.
Honestly, the only community that might understand what ETH has endured is XRP.
Speaking of XRP – let’s rewind to November of last year. Back in April 2018, XRP was trading at $0.50, down from its January 2018 high of nearly $4. For more than six years, it drifted around that $0.50 mark, with only brief relief in 2021 before slipping back into its range once the bull market ended. Then, out of nowhere, something shifted. I won’t speculate on the exact catalyst, but what followed felt like a hate rally – a surge fueled less by fundamentals and more by years of pent-up frustration. The result? A staggering 500% move.
So here’s a thought:
What if ETH is undergoing its own hate rally right now?
Bitwise recently put out one of my favorite editions of their newsletter – consistently one of the best macro reads in crypto. Titled “The Case for Diversified Crypto Exposure,” it opened with this line:
“When it comes to crypto assets, bitcoin is king. But history suggests investors would benefit from owning a basket of them. Something big happened last week: Ethereum started to wake up.”
And it closed with this:
“If you think blockchains are really only useful for protecting against the abuse of fiat currencies, my recommendation is just to buy bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset with a clear shot at being ‘money.’ It will be extremely hard if not impossible for a competitor to surpass bitcoin in this role.
But if you agree with me that blockchains are a general use technology—if, for instance, you’re intrigued by the idea of nearly all the world’s assets moving onchain—history suggests you’d want to own a basket of crypto assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and more.”
Now, Bitwise keeps things professional. I don’t have to. I get to say things like hate rally and talk about what it feels like behind the price action.
And honestly, if this is a hate rally, ETH’s up just 48% so far. That’s solid, but it doesn’t come close to matching the amount of criticism and disbelief it’s taken on in recent years.
If this is a hate rally, then this is just the springboard – the emotional release from the bottom. But the real test comes after. For ETH to keep climbing, it’ll have to do more than just prove people wrong. It’ll have to win people back.
That next leg won’t be fueled by backlash – it’ll be fueled by belief.
And for those of you who’ve stayed in ETH – who’ve ridden the volatility and stuck with it long-term – there’s something reassuring in this move. It’s early. The climb back to former levels is still underway. But something’s shifting. For years, ETH played the role of a high-beta Bitcoin trade. That dynamic died. But now? You can almost see a bony hand reaching out of the grave.
I want to see Ethereum win.
If it wins, it means decentralized applications aren’t just experiments – they’re part of everyday life. It means open access to financial tools for everyone, everywhere. Someone in a remote village could borrow, lend, or earn yield as easily as someone in New York.
If Ethereum wins, it means real-time, automated payments for gig workers – no banks, no fees, no friction. It means the infrastructure of the internet isn’t controlled by tech giants, but by the people who use and build on it.
If Ethereum wins, it means tokenized Tesla shares on a Sunday night and seamless rollovers into fractional real estate. A single mom owning a piece of a Manhattan apartment. A student in Brazil funding a local solar project with a few dollars.
And yes, it means gaming economies where kids actually own what they earn – not just rent it from a centralized platform. NFTs, in all their misunderstood glory, need Ethereum to win. And I still believe they will.
More than anything, I hope the sentiment around Ethereum continues to shift in the right direction – not about flipping Bitcoin, not about politics, not about tribalism. Just about building something better.
There’s a different energy in the air right now. I can feel it. Knock on wood – maybe we’re on the verge of something real.
And remember: ETH is still down roughly 80% from its all-time high vs. Bitcoin.
The runway is very long.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Price continues to consolidate just below the $106,099 level after a strong breakout and parabolic move from sub–$89K. This rangebound behavior is healthy – especially after such an aggressive leg up – and could serve as a launchpad for continuation if bulls remain in control.
The $99,517 area remains the closest key support, previously acting as resistance and now holding firm. It's also worth noting that volume has steadily declined during this consolidation, a common trait of bullish pauses rather than distribution. RSI is hovering in elevated territory but not yet flashing a strong divergence, suggesting momentum remains intact.
One potential angle to keep in mind is that we may be forming a small bull flag here on the daily – a continuation pattern that would resolve to the upside on a break above the recent high. Watch for tightening price action within this range and a push on increased volume to confirm the move.
As always, keep in mind that levels are more like zones of interest than exact numbers – especially in a high–volatility asset like BTC.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
AVAX has officially broken out of its multi-month range between approximately $15 and $24, and is now retesting the former range high as support - a textbook bullish move. The breakout candle showed strong momentum, followed by a healthy consolidation and a successful retest of the previous resistance zone, which has now flipped to support.
Price is comfortably trading above the 50-day moving average, which is beginning to curve upward - a sign of growing strength. The next significant obstacle is the 200-day moving average, currently sitting above the price around the $29–$30 zone. That area also lines up with previous price structure and is likely to act as the next resistance level.
Volume on the breakout was elevated, which adds credibility to the move. As long as price holds above the top of the prior range ($24), the breakout remains intact. A move toward the 200 MA looks likely if the broader market holds up.
In short: AVAX is showing strength, leaving behind a well-defined accumulation range and forming the early stages of a bullish trend structure.
Market Rally Loses Steam While Dollar Declines
Markets showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday as the recent rally lost steam. S&P 500 futures were flat after the index hit its highest level since February, while the dollar fell 0.4% amid reports of US-South Korea currency discussions. Treasury yields held steady near 4.46%.
Strategists warned the equity rebound, fueled by tariff cuts, easing inflation, and strong earnings, may have peaked. Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer noted stocks remain vulnerable to weak economic data. Europe’s Stoxx 600 dipped, but Burberry jumped 9% on job cut plans.
Nvidia gained in premarket trading after securing a major chip deal with Saudi Arabia’s Humain. Meanwhile, Exante Data’s Jens Nordvig suggested a prolonged bear market for the dollar could be unfolding as global investors reassess exposure to US assets amid policy uncertainty.
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% as of 10:15 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1249
The Japanese yen rose 1% to 146.02 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1971 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3351
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $103,147.9
Ether fell 3.5% to $2,596.99
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.46%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.67%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.67%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.3% to $66.43 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,232.87 an ounce
Bitcoin’s ETF Flows Are Incredible
Take a look at the chart above. Do you notice anything that stands out? BlackRock’s IBIT has recorded positive inflows every single day shown, and the last time it saw a negative flow was back on April 8 - 36 days ago. IBIT has also had a couple of monster days on this streak, $970.9m in inflows on April 28th and $674.9m on May 2nd.
More Details On The Coinbase News
Credit where credit is due: in Bitwise’s “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025,” the firm made the following call - “Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq-100, adding crypto exposure to (nearly) every U.S. investor’s portfolio.” Out of nowhere on Monday evening, the news broke - and COIN’s price surged as investors began speculating on how much passive inflow Coinbase would receive from its inclusion in the S&P 500.
In other brief Coinbase news, the wallet is looking to take a more social angle:
There aren’t many details yet on how the feed inside Coinbase Wallet will actually function, but from what’s been shared, it looks like a blend of X and Instagram – social meets crypto, with a familiar swipe-and-scroll experience.
Robinhood Invades Canada - And Leads With Crypto
The spotlight has been on Coinbase joining the S&P 500, but one of its biggest competitors, Robinhood, just made a major move of its own — announcing an agreement to acquire WonderFi, a leading Canadian digital asset platform.
WonderFi operates two of Canada’s longest-standing regulated crypto platforms and currently holds over C$2.1 billion in assets under custody. With a strong reputation for delivering secure and innovative crypto products to Canadian users, WonderFi gives Robinhood a strategic foothold in a tightly regulated market. The deal also signals Robinhood’s broader ambition: to build a truly global financial ecosystem.
“WonderFi has built a formidable family of brands serving beginner and advanced crypto users alike, making them an ideal partner to accelerate Robinhood’s mission in Canada. We look forward to partnering with the WonderFi team to deliver innovative, user-centric crypto products to Canadian customers,” - Johann Kerbrat, SVP and GM of Robinhood Crypto.
“Through a long and focused effort, WonderFi successfully built one of Canada’s largest registered Crypto-Trading platforms. This transaction is the culmination of those efforts and the launchpad for Robinhood to democratize finance across Canada. The arrangement provides WonderFi shareholders with all-cash consideration at an attractive premium to our recent trading levels,” - Bobby Halpern, Executive Chairman of WonderFi.
VanEck Is Launching A Tokenized Fund
VanEck, one of my favorite crypto investment firms, has partnered with Securitize to launch its first tokenized fund: the VanEck® Treasury Fund, Ltd. (VBILL). This offering gives investors blockchain-native access to U.S. Treasury-backed assets in real time, combining traditional finance with modern infrastructure.
VBILL will be available across Avalanche, BNB Chain, Ethereum, and Solana, with cross-chain functionality powered by Wormhole. It leverages Securitize’s full suite of services – from tokenization to fund administration – to enhance accessibility, liquidity, and efficiency for institutional and qualified investors.
One detail from the PR Newswire caught my attention:
“Shares of VBILL are issued and recorded on blockchain networks, offering investors greater transparency and faster settlement times compared to traditional fund structures. The fund is designed for institutional and qualified investors. Minimum subscriptions start at $100,000 for investments on Avalanche, BNB Chain, and Solana, and $1,000,000 on Ethereum.”
In other words, while VBILL is launching on four blockchains, accessing the fund via Ethereum comes with a minimum investment requirement that’s ten times higher than the others.
That may exclude smaller Ethereum-based investors, but I see this as a net positive. The higher threshold likely reflects Ethereum’s higher network costs and the profile of its user base. More importantly, it shows VanEck understands Ethereum’s positioning as the go-to chain for institutions – and they’re comfortable charging a premium for that access.
Twenty One Capital Buys Bitcoin!
Jack Mallers’ Twenty One Capital – backed by heavyweights like Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank – has just made a major move, acquiring an additional 4,812 BTC valued at $458.7 million. This marks the firm’s first Bitcoin purchase since its high-profile launch, when it disclosed initial holdings of 42,000 BTC.
For now, observers should keep an eye on three key variables:
A) How frequently Twenty One makes purchases
B) The size of those purchases
C) The performance of XXI, the publicly traded stock
Once more data points emerge, we’ll be able to start benchmarking Twenty One Capital against similar firms – particularly Strategy and Strive – to see how its treasury strategy, capital efficiency, and investor response stack up in real-time.
Buy Everything! Crypto Gets A Massive Boost! $9 Billion Into Coinbase?
In today’s live show, I’m joined by Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public to break down the most explosive crypto news of the week. Arthur Hayes says it’s time to “buy everything” – are we really at the start of the next bull run? We’ll cover Tether’s $150B milestone, corporate Bitcoin accumulation, and why Coinbase could see $9 billion in passive inflows after being added to the S&P 500 next week. This episode is packed with signals you can’t afford to ignore.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.