The Wolf Den #1192 - This U.S. State Will Buy Bitcoin!
New Hampshire Wins The Race!
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
In This Issue:
This U.S. State Will Buy Bitcoin!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Hopes of Renewed China Trade Talks
Saylor Has A Massive Prediction
Ethereum Upgrades Today!
Solana Faces Outflows Following Bug Patch
$330 Billion Into Bitcoin, Tokenized Dollars Are Coming! | Caitlin Long
This U.S. State Will Buy Bitcoin!
The past few days and weeks have kicked up a whirlwind of headlines in the states’ race to pass Bitcoin and crypto reserve bills – and not all of it has been good news.
It started with a blow from Arizona, where Governor Katie Hobbs officially vetoed the state’s Bitcoin bill – abruptly halting the momentum that had been steadily building in both the House and Senate. In her veto statement, she made her stance clear:
“Today, I vetoed Senate Bill 1025. The Arizona State Retirement System is one of the strongest in the nation because it makes sound and informed investments. Arizonans’ retirement funds are not the place for the state to try untested investments like virtual currencies.”
This was a particularly frustrating outcome, given that Arizona was the first state to send Bitcoin legislation to the governor’s desk – just one signature away from making history. To make matters worse, the irony is hard to ignore: Arizona’s state retirement system already holds shares of Strategy – so much for avoiding Bitcoin exposure.
Shortly after Arizona’s setback, Florida – another conservative state and my home state – also failed to pass its crypto reserve legislation. Both House Bill 487 and Senate Bill 550, which aimed to establish a crypto reserve for the state, failed to cross the finish line.
Florida is a big fish to lose. It’s the third most populous state in the country and commands a massive budget – making its failure to move forward on crypto legislation all the more disappointing.
After these two steps back, something historic happened yesterday - marking a major leap forward. Take a look at this:
Yes, you read that right – New Hampshire, the Granite State, has officially signed HB 302 into law, establishing the nation’s first Bitcoin and Digital Assets Reserve Fund. The policy framework was directly based on Satoshi Action’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) model bill, the nonprofit announced in a statement on Tuesday.
Funny enough, I actually discussed HB 302 in detail back in January.
An interesting detail in HB302 is that, while it doesn’t explicitly mention Bitcoin, it includes this key stipulation: “Notwithstanding RSA 6:8, the state treasurer may invest a portion of public funds in precious metals and any digital assets with a market capitalization of over $500 billion averaged over the previous calendar year from the general fund, the revenue stabilization fund established in RSA 9:13-e, and any other funds as authorized by the legislature.”
That qualification is met by one asset, and one asset only: Bitcoin.
That’s not to say other assets won’t meet that threshold in the future - I’m confident they will - but for now, this keeps the focus squarely on Bitcoin until ETH, SOL, or another asset becomes more firmly established. It’s not a Bitcoin bill, per se, but it is a bill that only lets Bitcoin through the door - for now.
As for how much Bitcoin will be bought remains to be seen, we do know this: “The state treasurer shall not invest more than 5 percent of the total amount of public funds in any of the authorized investments under paragraph II.”
When you run the numbers, New Hampshire alone won’t move the needle. But what could is New Hampshire inspiring states like Arizona and Florida to jump back into the race – followed by heavyweights like New York, Texas, and California. That’s when the big dominos start to fall.
This isn’t just about a few hundred thousand BTC that states might accumulate. They’re not competing with the U.S. government alone – they’re up against other nations, sovereign wealth funds, institutional giants like banks, hedge funds, and pension funds – and of course, everyday investors like us.
Here’s the thought experiment: what does a New Hampshire resident, family office, university endowment, or hedge fund that’s anti-Bitcoin think when they see their state just signed HB 302 into law? The only logical conclusion is, “maybe I got it wrong.”
You can read the full bill HERE.
A few takeaways. First, it’s a misconception that conservative states are automatically pro-Bitcoin. Both Arizona and Florida voted for Trump – who’s openly pro-Bitcoin – yet they’ve failed to pass supportive legislation. So it’s not about partisanship. It’s about awareness. And right now, that awareness isn’t consistent.
Bitcoin has nothing to do with conservatism or liberalism – it’s about sovereignty. But for most state lawmakers, Bitcoin is still a foreign concept. Even if the federal narrative is shifting in Bitcoin’s favor, many state legislators are stuck where Washington was a couple of years ago – skeptical, uninformed, and hesitant.
That’s the problem. While we’ve made meaningful progress at the federal level – arguably the most important battleground – state-level momentum is lagging. That’s not entirely surprising. State legislatures attract less voter attention, and political risk is lower, so there’s less incentive to act boldly.
But the gap matters – and we need to close it.
Fortunately, people like Dennis Porter are doing just that. The passage of HB 302, modeled on the Satoshi Action Fund’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, shows that advocacy at the state level can work – and that progress is possible.
Honestly, I’m encouraged. A few years ago, I would’ve said the hardest step would be convincing the president, Congress, and the SEC. Now we just need to recalibrate and finish the job – starting with the smaller boxes on the checklist.
In theory, U.S. states buying Bitcoin should pave the way for federal adoption. That, in turn, would push major global powers to enter the race. But there’s no rule it has to happen in that order. Countries can leapfrog the U.S., just like El Salvador did. And the federal government could just as easily skip the warm-up and dive straight in.
Whatever the path – all outcomes are bullish. We just need more players in the game.
And yet, this milestone is getting almost no mainstream attention. To me, that’s a bullish signal in itself. We’re still early. New Hampshire doesn’t have the scale of Apple, Bridgewater, Germany, or Canada – but it does have first-mover advantage. Most people still only vaguely understand Bitcoin. They’ve seen it on CNBC, heard Musk or Trump mention it, or caught a few headlines. But the depth just isn’t there yet.
Meanwhile, the number of players chasing Bitcoin continues to grow – while the available supply at these prices continues to shrink. This isn’t a race with a finish line. It’s a sprint to accumulate as much as possible, as fast as possible.
Bitcoin is going to break through 100K. Then 125K. Then 150K and beyond. And when it does, people will be scratching their heads, asking why.
One reason? This state-level race.
Bitcoin’s price has a mind of its own – but the underlying structure is already in place. The signals are firing. Eventually, something has to give. And when it does, the price will move. It’s that simple.
Congratulations to New Hampshire for leading the way. Your commitment to innovation and financial sovereignty proves once again why you’ve earned the right to say, Live Free or Die.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Price action continues to look strong, with BTC holding above key support at $88,804 after breaking out from both descending resistance and the 200 MA. The structure is clearly bullish, and we’re seeing healthy follow-through after the breakout.
That said, I’m keeping an eye on potential bearish divergence forming on the RSI. While price is making higher highs, RSI has yet to confirm with a new high of its own. This doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent — divergences can resolve through consolidation or minor pullbacks — but it’s something to be cautious of in an otherwise strong trend.
Momentum remains on the bulls' side, but I’m staying measured here rather than euphoric.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
SUI is consolidating neatly inside a textbook bull flag, just beneath major resistance at $3.74. This pattern typically signals continuation to the upside, especially when paired with bullish structure.
Importantly, the price is holding above the 200-day moving average, which has now flipped into support following the explosive breakout in April. The flag is forming on declining volume, which is textbook behavior and often precedes a breakout.
A decisive move above $3.74 could trigger another leg higher. As always, confirmation is key – but this chart remains strong as long as the 200 MA holds.
U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Hopes of Renewed China Trade Talks
US stock futures rose as China and the US announced plans to hold their first formal trade talks since the tariff war began. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, while the dollar snapped a three-day losing streak. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that the talks—set in Switzerland—will focus on de-escalation, not a comprehensive deal.
Gold and Treasuries fell as haven demand waned, and Hong Kong stocks rallied after China cut a key policy rate to support its economy. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dipped, though Novo Nordisk gained on expectations of reduced competition for its weight-loss drug Wegovy.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will scrutinize signals around the timing and depth of future cuts. Despite strong economic data and lingering tariff-driven inflation concerns, markets still expect three rate cuts in 2025—beginning as late as July.
Meanwhile, tensions between India and Pakistan rattled local markets but had limited global impact.
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% as of 10:04 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
The euro was little changed at $1.1359
The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 143.34 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.2226 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3337
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $97,050.64
Ether rose 3.8% to $1,843.17
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.32%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.50%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.7% to $62.60 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $3,381.50 an ounce
Saylor Has A Massive Prediction
Michael Saylor spoke at the Strategy World 2025 event and had some pretty hefty predictions, “We see an industry that’s growing from $2 trillion to $200 trillion. When Bitcoin is a $200 trillion asset, what is it? It’s still going to be smaller than equity, and real estate, and bonds—it’s just going to be noticeable. It’s the emerging global monetary asset. It is digital gold. It’s 10x better than gold, maybe 100x better than gold.”
Kevin O’Leary, the lead shark on Shark Tank and a notable investor in both Bitcoin and altcoins, has raised some concerns. Not necessarily about Saylor’s words here, but about the way Strategy is acquiring Bitcoin.
“Michael Saylor is talking his book, alright? The guy sells stocks and pref shares and debt and then buys Bitcoin with it. The stock trades at twice the value of the inherent Bitcoin. That smells like something that ain’t going to work long term, just saying. I like the guy, but it has nothing to do with a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, which will never happen because we will never get buy-off on a bipartisan basis.”
Both are Bitcoiners with very different approaches - whose side are you on? I can see things going really well for Saylor, but also potentially going south if we enter a prolonged bear market after this cycle and his acquisition machine has significantly accelerated leading up to it. O'Leary is no dummy; his concerns deserve to be taken seriously.
Ethereum Upgrades Today!
Ethereum’s latest upgrade, dubbed Pectra, is set to go live today (assuming everything goes smoothly). While it’s being described as the network’s most extensive upgrade yet, there’s no single headline feature grabbing attention. Instead, Pectra delivers a collection of thoughtful, incremental changes designed to make Ethereum more user-friendly and keep layer 2s cost-effective.
Some of the most exciting improvements include wallets becoming easier to use with features like two-factor authentication and account recovery. Protocols will also be able to cover transaction fees on behalf of users, and multi-step transactions will require only a single approval. On the backend, blob capacity is doubling – a critical step for scaling layer 2s – and validators will find participation simpler and more rewarding.
The downside? Pectra doesn’t address Ethereum’s bigger challenges – namely, how to enhance the base layer in a way that revives the value accrual mechanisms lost since the Merge.
Solana Faces Outflows After Bug Patch
I have one last story I didn’t get to last week: it was reported that Solana developers uncovered a critical vulnerability in the blockchain that could have allowed an attacker to mint and withdraw unlimited tokens by submitting a forged proof that the system would’ve mistakenly accepted as valid. According to Solana’s post-mortem, the bug was discovered on April 16 and patched by the 18th. Naturally, the incident stirred conflict between the SOL and ETH communities.
As a result of the patched vulnerability, Solana saw a wave of outflows over the weekend and into Monday, following the Foundation’s post-mortem on the bug fix. Between May 4–5, the network recorded a net outflow of $11 million - by far the largest among major chains. In contrast, Ethereum and Bitcoin saw net inflows of $1.6 million and $1.9 million, respectively.
$330 Billion Into Bitcoin, Tokenized Dollars Are Coming! | Caitlin Long
Caitlin Long has huge news! Join us to discover how Custodia Bank is revolutionizing the banking industry using blockchain and crypto. My friends Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public are also here to share their valuable insights!
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Aptos - The blockchain network with everything you need to build your big idea. Unrivaled Speed, Unprecedented Trust, and an Unstoppable Community on Aptos.
Arch Public - It’s a hedge fund in your pocket. Built for retail traders, designed to outperform Wall Street. Try emotionless algorithmic trading at Arch Public today.
Trading Alpha - Trade With Confidence! My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use code '25OFF' for a 25% discount.
X - I spend most of my time on X, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.