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In This Issue:
Vanguard Sets Sail
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Swift Is Exploring An Ethereum Layer 2
Kraken Is gearing Up For A Massive IPO
Solana ETFs Are Nearly Here
The Real 4,700% Bitcoin Play Exposed! (Not What You Think) | Mike Alfred
Vanguard Sets Sail
Just days after the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in early January, I wrote one of my favorite intros: “Not All Ships Sail – Will Vanguard Sink?” It unpacked Vanguard’s controversial decision to withhold support for the Bitcoin ETF.
A spokesperson for the asset manager at the time stated: “We also have no plans to offer Vanguard Bitcoin ETFs or other crypto-related products – our perspective is long-standing that cryptocurrencies’ high volatility runs counter to our goal of helping investors generate positive real returns over the long term.” The comment sparked an uproar on X and led to a trending hashtag #BoycottVanguard - which I started.
It got worse. Here are some old quotes from the previous Vanguard CEO, Tim Buckley:
“Something like bitcoin is just too volatile and it’s not a store of value — it hasn’t been… It is speculative, really tough to think about how it belongs in a long-term portfolio.”
“You will never see a fund from Vanguard on Bitcoin. We tend to stay away from assets that don’t have underlying economic value. They don’t generate earnings or cash flows.”
“The bitcoin – its value is based off of scarcity – and an artificial scarcity that’s out there,” he explained. “It’s really tough to imagine where the long-term return comes from other than speculation.”
In that newsletter, I shared some of my more nuanced thoughts on the issue, primarily being that I understood why Vanguard made the decision that they did, but regardless of their principles, they stood to lose out, which they have.
In hindsight, their stance wasn’t surprising. Vanguard has spent five decades building its reputation on caution, discipline, and consistency - values that have made it the world’s second-largest asset manager.
For those unfamiliar, Vanguard was founded on the principles of conservatism - the essence of long-term investing. While many asset managers claim similar ideals, few have followed them as faithfully as Vanguard. Its founder, John Bogle, built his legacy on risk aversion, most notably by pioneering the index mutual fund sector.
For a wide range of investors, Vanguard’s strategy is a sensible choice: safe, reliable, and accessible to novices, savers, and the ultra-wealthy alike. I wouldn’t suggest that Vanguard fails to act in its clients’ best interests. Still, I believed then - and continued to believe - that Vanguard has shown signs of reluctance to adapt to the evolving landscape of finance.
Until now, of course…
On Friday, “Crypto In America” reported:
“The world’s second-largest asset manager, Vanguard, is preparing to allow access to crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform, Crypto In America has learned…
According to a source familiar with the company’s plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Vanguard has begun laying the groundwork and holding external discussions in response to strong client demand for digital assets and a shifting regulatory environment. The source said there are currently no plans for Vanguard to launch its own products, as BlackRock has done. Instead, the firm is considering letting brokerage customers access select third-party crypto ETFs, though it remains unclear when a decision will be made or which products would be offered.
‘They’re being very methodical in their approach, understanding the dynamics have been changing since 2024,’ the source said.”
ChatGPT generated this image for me - I guess Vanguard’s boat is literally about to bullishly sail out of the water. On a serious note, props to Vanguard for changing its mind; after all, it was always a matter of time.
Did you know that Vanguard’s CEO, Salim Ramji - a 10-year BlackRock veteran - oversaw the launch of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which has brought in $60.82 billion in cumulative net inflows over just 20 months? Ramji took the helm at Vanguard after the firm publicly declared it had no intention of offering such products, but given his track record at BlackRock, I - along with many others - saw this decision as inevitable.
Also, there’s this key detail:
The irony runs deep: Vanguard, all while dismissing Bitcoin, has been the second-largest holder of Strategy the entire time (because of indexing, not as an active investment).
After all, how could Vanguard possibly hold to its old-school playbook while Larry Fink has spent the past two years leading a full-blown crypto and tokenization roadshow? Caution has always been Vanguard’s hallmark, but by now, refusing to embrace digital assets isn’t prudence - it’s falling behind.
What strikes me most about Vanguard’s decision is how quickly they changed their mind.
‘But Scott, it took them 20 months, they are slow idiots...’
Not if you know Vanguard. This is a firm that measures success in decades, not quarters.
For a firm of Vanguard’s size and philosophical positioning, every strategic pivot goes through countless layers of due diligence. We’re talking about endless internal memos, research committees evaluating the risks and opportunities of digital assets, boardroom debates weighing client demand against brand identity, and votes that require consensus among executives known for moving cautiously.
Think about the stubborn old-guard executives who wanted nothing to do with crypto (and still don’t) - they either had to be orange-pilled or overruled. Behind the scenes, there were likely months of talks with regulators, legal teams drawing up contingency plans, and portfolio strategists modeling how crypto exposure might impact Vanguard’s core funds.
Had Vanguard decided to change its mind when Bitcoin was trading steadily in the mid-hundreds of thousands, it would have been seen as a natural move. Instead, they’re acting now - at a moment of heightened volatility - which makes the shift all the more striking and harder to dismiss as mere trend-following.
From ‘no crypto ever’ to ‘let’s do this thing,’ coming from Vanguard, is about as dramatic a U-turn as you’ll ever see in traditional finance.
My second takeaway is this: if Vanguard can change its mind, then any institution can. Vanguard was the largest (and most resistant) domino that needed to fall, and its decision sends a signal that neither BlackRock nor Fidelity could. Those firms were on the crypto train relatively early and are known for being forward-thinking. For Vanguard to pivot - after publicly resisting - is the clearest indication yet that digital assets belong as a necessary part of modern finance.
As I’ve often said, everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve - and I’d argue it’s pretty respectable that Vanguard stepped in when it did. Sure, the rumor now is that they don’t plan to launch their own Bitcoin products, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned about institutions like this, it’s that they can change their mind much faster than they let on.
Frankly, it doesn’t matter much for Bitcoin whether Vanguard launches its own products or relies on existing ones - what matters is that $11 trillion in assets now have a pathway into the market, and a very clear message is sent.
Vanguard’s entry will easily channel tens of billions into Bitcoin and billions more into Ethereum, with inevitable spillover across the broader industry. Additionally, the original report mentioned “crypto products,” not Bitcoin specifically.
Vanguard’s arrival isn’t just another headline - it’s a watershed moment. The firm that once swore “no crypto ever” has now set a new course, and when the $11 trillion ship finally leaves the harbor, the entire industry will ride the wake.
Crypto is no longer optional in modern finance - it’s inevitable.
(Nothing in crypto is guaranteed until it’s actually happening - not just announced. That applies to this news as well.)
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has been trading between 3 main areas - $117K, 112K and 108K, for over a month. Yesterday’s move was encouraging, but found resistance (predictably) at $112K.
Not much to see here until we get a definitive move above 117K or below 108K (those zones, not exact numbers).
Legacy Markets
US stocks extended gains, setting the S&P 500 up for its best September in more than a decade, while gold surged past $3,800 an ounce on a weaker dollar and worries over a possible government shutdown. Futures rose 0.5% at the open, with Treasuries rallying and the 10-year yield slipping to 4.14%.
Traders are focused on a heavy week of labor data - culminating in Friday’s payrolls report, expected to show 50,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts by January, betting on continued support for a cooling labor market.
Strategists described the backdrop as “Goldilocks” - resilient growth, a dovish Fed, and fiscal support. Goldman Sachs turned overweight equities into year-end, while Deutsche Bank warned that weaker payrolls could spark volatility, with even small negative surprises likely to trigger outsized reactions.
Key events this week:
Monday
– Quiet start to the week — no major headline releases scheduled
– Fed speakers may offer tone shifts
Tuesday
– JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) — key read on labor demand
Wednesday / Thursday
– Multiple Fed speakers — markets watching hawkish vs dovish cues
– Durable goods, trade, and consumer confidence data scattered across the two days
Friday
– Nonfarm Payrolls (Employment Situation) — the most important release of the week
– PCE inflation gauge, income, and spending reports also due
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 6:19 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1717
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3428
The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 148.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $112,173.89
Ether rose 2% to $4,136.07
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.72%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.71%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $64.56 a barrel
Spot gold rose 1.3% to $3,810.46 an ounce
Swift Is Exploring An Ethereum Layer 2
Swift, the global financial messaging network, is piloting an on-chain version of its global messaging system using Ethereum Layer-2 Linea, with more than a dozen banks, including BNP Paribas and BNY, involved. The project, which could take months to develop, aims to modernize cross-border payments by bringing greater efficiency and privacy through zk-rollup technology.
Swift has experimented with blockchain before, running trials for tokenized value transfers and digital asset payments, but this move marks a deeper step toward integrating crypto infrastructure at scale. Linea, built by Consensys, was chosen for its privacy-preserving features, seen as vital for banks balancing innovation with regulation.
Kraken Is Gearing Up For A Massive IPO
An interesting excerpt from the article:
Kraken has always marched to its own beat in how it runs its business and positions itself in the industry, building with barely any outside funding - just $27 million over more than a decade. That completely changed this year when the company raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation, setting its own terms for the round. The raise brought in investment managers, VCs, and Tribe Capital’s Arjun Sethi, both personally and through his firm, as Kraken gears up for an IPO. With $411 million in Q2 revenue and nearly $80 million in post-Ebitda earnings, the exchange has proven its staying power and stands out as one of the strongest crypto firms preparing to go public. The one lingering question: the stability of its senior leadership.
Solana ETFs Are Nearly Here
Industry experts report that a Solana ETF could launch within days or weeks. As more data emerges, these products will give us deeper insight into how inflows align with market caps and reveal legacy investor preferences in crypto. Among altcoins, SOL and XRP stand out as the most pivotal ETF inclusions.
The Block has a Solana ETF tracker, shown below - check it out HERE.
In other key Solana news, several asset managers - including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale - have updated their spot Solana ETF filings to include staking. I could see Ethereum investors may be frustrated if Solana gets staking first, but in the long run, it won’t matter, as this all but guarantees that Ethereum ETFs - BlackRock’s included - will soon offer staking as well.
The Real 4,700% Bitcoin Play Exposed! (Not What You Think) | Mike Alfred
Scott Melker and Mike Alfred discuss the recent significant movements in the stock market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin miners and their performance. They explore investment strategies, the emotional fortitude required in public equity investing, and the implications of recent deals like Cypher’s partnership with Google. The discussion also touches on the influence of China on mining and AI, Mike’s new role at Bakkt, and the current state of Bitcoin treasury companies. They conclude with thoughts on long-term investment strategies and market cycles.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.