The Wolf Den #1190 - Are CBDCs Still A Threat?
Were we scared for no reason?
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In This Issue:
CBDCs, Are They Still A Thing?
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
U.S. Stock Futures Decline As Dollar Drops, Crude Oil Sinks
You Can Earn Stablecoin Yield On Ledger Live
BlackRock Partners With BNY Mellon To Deliver Digital Shares
Morgan Stanley Plans To Launch Crypto Trading
The SEC Is Issuing Delays
Trump Media Might Launch A Token
Tokenizing Trillions: Here's Why Massive Institutions Are Secretly Betting On Crypto | Nathan Allman
CBDCs, Are They Still A Thing?
It’s a slow day for crypto news, and a question popped into my head:
Is the threat of CBDCs dying?
About two and a half years ago, in the thick of the Biden administration, I wrote a piece titled “CBDC Adoption? Coming Soon.”
At the time, it really felt like the U.S. would have a central bank digital currency by now – especially with the global momentum building across the CBDC landscape.
That momentum started in earnest with Executive Order 14067 in 2022: “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets.” The order signaled that the White House was putting its weight behind CBDC research. It didn’t mince words:
“My Administration places the highest urgency on research and development efforts into the potential design and deployment options of a United States CBDC.”
This wasn’t some vague gesture. It was a coordinated push for action. The directive urged the Fed and other agencies to go deep on the implications of a U.S. CBDC:
“The Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) is encouraged to continue to research and report on the extent to which CBDCs…”
Jerome Powell, along with other regulators and policymakers, seemed fully on board. As the Fed’s own white paper put it:
“In light of the tremendous growth in crypto-assets and stablecoins, the Federal Reserve is examining whether a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) would improve on an already safe and efficient domestic payments system… [It] could also potentially help maintain the dollar’s international standing.”
And yet – nothing.
2022 was brutal. Bitcoin shattered our spirits. Major exchanges collapsed. And on top of it all, we had to listen to CBDC noise in the background, like someone gently sanding down our sanity while we were already bleeding out.
In a late 2022 newsletter, I tried to assess how far along the world really was on CBDC adoption – and where things might go in the next 1, 5, or even 10 years. For that, I leaned on a free resource from the Atlantic Council, a think tank focused on international affairs. Their CBDC tracker is still live and updated, and it offers a real-time view of how different countries are progressing.
The tracker divides CBDC development into six categories. Here’s what the landscape looked like at the end of 2022:
Launched – 11
Pilot – 15
Development – 26
Research – 46
Inactive – 10
Canceled – 2
(And yes, I made a joke about this – stand by.)
Here’s the stat line today:
Launched - 3
Pilot - 44
Development - 19
Research - 39
Inactive - 21
Canceled - 2
To sum it up: fewer CBDCs have launched, more have entered the pilot phase, development and research are down, and a growing number have been marked inactive. The number of canceled projects hasn’t changed. Aside from the spike in the pilot category, everything since late 2022 has been trending in the wrong direction for them – and the right direction for us. Still, pilot is just one step away from launched, which makes it the most concerning trend to watch – but we’re not at the point of no return just yet.
Notable countries currently in the pilot phase include India, China, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Norway, Sweden, South Africa, Singapore, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
Here’s the current map, there is still a lot of color:
For those curious about the status of the U.S. – it’s in an interesting spot on the map today, falling into the category of “other.” Back in 2022, it was squarely in the research phase. But since Trump took office and revoked EO 14067 – replacing it with EO 14178, “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology” – the U.S. has moved into a separate bucket alongside just five other countries.
Here’s a section from Trump’s executive order, which effectively halted CBDC development:
and this…
This EO has created positive ripple effects:
and this…
Anyone who was closely following the Trump campaign’s stance on crypto saw this coming – none of it should be a surprise. He made his position clear months before the election, saying this at last year’s Bitcoin conference:
Truthfully, I’m not sure why the U.S. is still listed under the “Other” category – especially when the president, the Fed Chair, and the Treasury Secretary – the three key decision-makers on this technology – have all basically said there won’t be a CBDC.
This brings us back to the original question: where are we at with CBDC adoption?
The short answer is – we’re in a much better place today, but still far from the finish line.
The U.S. signaling to the world that it’s not interested in pursuing this technology sends a strong message to other major countries that share similar values and democratic systems. That stance will likely create a ripple effect among like-minded nations. But when it comes to countries like China or Russia – with very different political and economic models – it may not make much of a difference.
And yet, beyond U.S. influence, we’re already seeing signs of a broader slowdown in CBDC momentum – evidenced by eight fewer launched CBDCs and a noticeable uptick in inactive projects. That said, there are still plenty in the pilot phase, and if the wrong decisions are made now, it could soon be too late to course correct.
I know we’re trending in the right direction, because I ended that 2022 piece with this prediction:
“If every country shifts forward one stage next year, then 20–30 countries will have launched, 20–30 will be in the pilot, and 50 will be in development.”
Thankfully, that shift didn’t happen. And even if it eventually does, I still don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. If CBDCs begin launching around the globe and become the norm in some countries, they’ll (A) teach the entire planet how to use a digital wallet and transact digitally, and (B) drive people toward Bitcoin and stablecoins – because they’re the superior, decentralized alternative.
At this point, CBDCs might continue to grow – but honestly, the more time that passes, the more they seem to shoot themselves in the foot. And that actually makes me pretty optimistic.
I don’t know about you, but this update felt really good to write.
It’s never been clearer: we’re winning.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos - one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum - is an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I’ll be sharing an Aptos review, highlighting the network’s latest announcements and milestones. To kick things off, here’s a great shot of Avery Ching at Token2049 in Dubai this week. If his presentation is published online, I’ll circle back next Friday with a recap of the key takeaways.
Next up: let’s talk about Yaptos - yes, you read that right - and KaitoAI.
At first, I had no idea what any of this meant, but after some digging, here’s the TLDR: KaitoAI is a Web3 information platform that tracks tickers, topics, and narratives across crypto. It features an Aptos leaderboard that rewards users each month based on ‘Yapper Mindshare’—a metric that ranks accounts by the quality and relevance of their contributions to project-specific conversations, prioritizing thoughtful commentary and real engagement over sheer volume.
Super cool.
Last, but certainly not least, I have this to share:
Introducing Raptr - a new consensus protocol designed to tackle the original blockchain trilemma. While the full article, “Raptr: The Consensus Layer for the Global Trading Engine,” is highly technical, the key takeaway is this: Raptr is a BFT (Byzantine Fault Tolerant) protocol that delivers the elusive trifecta of extremely high throughput, near-optimal latency, and decentralized robustness.
Another win for Aptos. That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love - they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bringing back the old chart to revisit levels we’ve had mapped for months.
Bitcoin is consolidating just below resistance after a massive breakout – currently hovering around $94K. The price is holding above the $91,271 level, which was previously a major zone of resistance and now appears to be acting as support. The 50-day moving average has turned upward and is accelerating, while the 200-day remains supportive below.
Each horizontal line on this chart represents an area of interest rather than precise support or resistance. Still, price action has respected these zones with near-perfect precision.
As long as BTC holds this $91K region, the structure remains bullish. A break below that would suggest a deeper retest, but for now, dips continue to be bought.
U.S. Stock Futures Decline As Dollar Drops, Crude Oil Sinks
US stock futures edged higher ahead of a busy day for corporate earnings, with major names like Coca-Cola and Visa set to report. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Treasury yields climbed, and the dollar strengthened. Shares of Ford and GM advanced on news that the Trump administration plans to ease auto tariffs on certain foreign parts.
About one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, with 75% beating estimates. Markets are calmer following April’s tariff-driven volatility, helped by signals of easing trade tensions. Investors are also closely watching upcoming US labor data, seen as crucial for gauging the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In company news, Coca-Cola’s revenue growth is expected to slow, while Visa’s results are likely to show steady strength. Microsoft and Meta report later this week. In Europe, Deutsche Bank and HSBC shares rose after strong results and buyback news, while BP fell after a profit miss.
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% as of 7:13 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1354
The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3323
The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 143.85 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $94,212.45
Ether fell 1.5% to $1,809.32
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.31%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.51%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $57.63 a barrel
Spot gold rose 2.4% to $3,316.81 an ounce
You Can Earn Stablecoin Yield On Ledger Live
Many of my readers use Ledgers, which is why this update could be valuable for those looking to earn yield.
Ledger has partnered with DeFi platform Kiln to allow users to earn stablecoin yields directly from their self-custodied wallets. Through Ledger Live, users can now earn between 5% and 9.9% on stablecoins like USDC and USDT by tapping into DeFi lending protocols such as Aave and Compound – all while maintaining full control of their assets.
The main benefit – aside from the yield itself – is convenience. Doing this through Ledger simplifies the process by eliminating the need to connect wallets to multiple apps or bridge assets, which can be intimidating for many users.
That said, this isn’t risk-free. Anytime you connect your wallet or interact with apps – even passively – you expose yourself to potential vulnerabilities. And of course, yield always comes with risk.
As always, make sure to DYOR before jumping in.
BlackRock Partners With BNY Mellon To Deliver Digital Shares
BlackRock has filed with the SEC to offer blockchain-based shares for its BLF Treasury Trust Fund (TTTXX), a $150 million money market fund invested mostly in U.S. Treasuries and cash. These new "DLT shares" won’t be tokenized like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund but will use blockchain to create a mirror record of ownership, enhancing transparency. The official record will still be maintained using traditional systems. Shares can only be purchased through BlackRock and BNY Mellon, with a $3 million minimum investment. No ticker or management fee has been proposed yet.
Morgan Stanley Plans To Launch Crypto Trading
Less than two weeks after Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster announced the firm is targeting an April 2026 launch for spot Bitcoin trading for Schwab clients, Morgan Stanley is now planning to introduce cryptocurrency trading on its E*Trade platform in 2026 as well. According to the Bloomberg report, the bank is currently weighing options on crypto-native partnerships to build out the infrastructure for spot trading. Not only will this be a huge win for whatever company or companies win the bid, but also for crypto in general. Morgan Stanley manages $1.3 trillion—this is about as big as it gets.
The SEC Is Issuing Delays
A handful of SEC delays came down this week, including the XRP spot ETF, the spot DOGE ETF, proposals to add ETH staking to existing ETFs, and likely more on the way - like SOL and HBAR ETFs. It remains to be seen whether this current SEC will follow the previous one's playbook of making decisions at the last possible moment or take a more proactive approach and approve these products early. I'm leaning toward the latter, partly because SEC Chairman Paul Atkins was just confirmed, and crypto probably isn’t at the top of his priority list - at least not yet.
This SEC actually understands crypto, I don’t see why they would plan to wait until the last minute.
Trump Media Might Launch A Token
Since TRUMP coin wasn’t enough, apparently Trump Media & Technology Group is exploring a utility token, which was revealed in a letter to shareholders on Tuesday. From the letter: “As part of a rewards program, we're exploring the introduction of a utility token within a Truth digital wallet that can initially be used to pay for Truth+ subscription costs, and later be applied to other products and services in the Truth ecosphere.” It’s news like this that makes me worry the Trump team still doesn’t fully grasp crypto. The industry doesn’t need another token - everything we need, at least in this context, already exists. What it really needs is education, protection, and support to keep evolving - not more noise.
Tokenizing Trillions: Here's Why Massive Institutions Are Secretly Betting On Crypto | Nathan Allman
In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, I dive deep into the future of crypto with Nathan Allman, Founder & CEO of Ondo Finance. We explore how Ondo is partnering with giants like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to bring real-world assets onto the blockchain. Join us to discover how tokenization might change finance forever.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.