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In This Issue:
Bitcoin Vs. Gold
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Wall Street’s Relief Rally Gains Steam
When Is Altcoin Season?
Trump Is Officially Planning To Launch Crypto ETFs
Oregon Attorney General Sues Coinbase
Circle Announces Circle Payments Network (CPN)
Is Bitcoin Officially BREAKING OUT? $100K Ahead?
Bitcoin Vs. Gold
The world is fixated on one asset right now – and surprisingly, it’s not Bitcoin.
Gold is stealing the spotlight.
Yes, Bitcoin outperformed gold yesterday, but all eyes are still on the yellow metal.
How can you not keep staring at this thing?
For the past year, an ancient rock that's been around for millennia is somehow outpacing a cutting-edge digital coin. But the top signals are starting to flash... and this story is far from over.
Let’s dive into the details and add some context. If you’ve ever read a book about Bitcoin, you’ve probably seen a chart that looks something like this:
or this:
or this:
Essentially, these charts measure the key attributes of a store of value - almost always comparing Bitcoin, gold, and fiat currency. Every author is going to score these assets a little differently and pick and choose their core components, but they all roughly say the same thing, Bitcoin is the best. Let’s break down what’s being scored:
Verifiable: I have to disagree with most people in this category and score all three assets equally. While critics argue that fiat and gold have misled people, there have also been cases in crypto where individuals mistakenly bought Bitcoin Cash, thinking it was Bitcoin, due to misleading or poor advertising. The truth is, all three assets have their own methods of verification that, when used correctly, caHere’s the revised version with proper en dashes (–) throughout, per your editing rules:
Essentially, these charts evaluate the core attributes of a store of value – usually comparing Bitcoin, gold, and fiat currency. While each author might score things slightly differently or pick their own set of metrics, the conclusion is almost always the same: Bitcoin comes out on top. Let’s break down the categories:
Verifiable – I have to push back on the standard scoring here. All three assets are verifiable when used properly. While critics point to fiat and gold scams, there have also been crypto users who mistakenly bought Bitcoin Cash thinking it was Bitcoin, due to misleading branding. Verification methods exist across the board, and when used correctly, they’re all 100% accurate.
Fungible – Gold has a unique advantage here: it can be melted down, erasing any trace of its history and making it truly interchangeable. Bitcoin, while mostly fungible, is traceable. Coins tied to illicit activity may carry stigma or even restrictions. Fiat, meanwhile, depends entirely on government policy – bills can be canceled or replaced at any time.
Scarce – Bitcoin shines here. Fiat is infinite by design. Gold is scarce in theory, but more can be discovered – underground, underwater, or even in space. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a fixed supply of 21 million that’s hard-coded into its protocol. It’s absolute.
Durable – Gold wins physically. Some gold coins from ancient Rome still exist. But Bitcoin’s durability comes from something else – its decentralized infrastructure. The network has perfect uptime and no single point of failure. Bitcoin’s durability is digital, not physical.
Portable – Bitcoin wins in a landslide. It can be moved across the world instantly. Gold is heavy and costly to transport. Fiat is mostly digital today, but moving large amounts across borders or institutions remains cumbersome and slow. Bitcoin just works – anywhere.
Divisible – Bitcoin is easily sliced into one hundred million units per coin (Satoshis). Try doing that with a gold bar. Fiat is fine, but Bitcoin is better – more precise and programmable.
Censorship Resistant – This is a defining trait for Bitcoin. Governments can freeze fiat. They’ve confiscated gold in the past. Bitcoin? It runs on decentralized code. No single entity can stop or alter it. Four years of heavy-handed regulation couldn’t bring it down – it’s antifragile.
Decentralized – Fiat is entirely centralized. Gold is more decentralized in ownership but still relies on institutions for trade and storage. Bitcoin is the only one that’s truly decentralized – no central bank, no issuing authority, just math and consensus.
Established History – Gold wins this round. Thousands of years of trust and use across civilizations. Bitcoin’s just 15 years old by comparison. That said, it’s building a historical track record faster than anything we’ve seen.
Programmable – This one is all Bitcoin. Neither gold nor fiat offers any programmability. Bitcoin enables smart contracts, innovations like Taproot, and future upgrades. It’s not just money – it’s a platform.
Storage – Bitcoin again. Fiat is easy to store digitally but centralized. Gold is bulky and expensive to safeguard. Bitcoin gives you the option to be your own bank, using encrypted wallets that put you in full control.
Yes, that was a lot – but it’s a valuable framework for understanding Bitcoin’s position. Of course, these are my views. Others may tweak the categories or scores. But when you zoom out, Bitcoin scores higher than gold in most meaningful areas – and fiat isn’t even in the race.
Now consider this: Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.8 trillion. Gold’s is $22.8 trillion. That gap doesn’t represent value – it represents upside.
As an aside, I was screaming yesterday on X that gold is likely to be putting in a top.
Gold printed a textbook shooting star at the top of its rally – a classic bearish reversal pattern. After a strong uptrend, buyers pushed price to new highs, but sellers stepped in hard, forcing a close near the lows. The long upper wick signals rejection, and the small body confirms indecision. Today’s red candle adds weight to the setup.
Time to rotate into “digital gold.”
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has officially left the chat... and the downtrend.
We’ve broken through the descending resistance from the all-time high with conviction, and cleared the key $88,804 level that had marked every failed rally for the past few months. Not only that – price has exploded above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reclaiming them as support.
The breakout came with strong volume, validating the move. This is also a confirmed higher high, flipping market structure back to bullish for the first time since the March top.
Of course, nothing moves in a straight line, and some consolidation or retest wouldn’t be surprising. But this is exactly the kind of clean breakout technical traders look for – a textbook trend reversal.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
ETH/BTC continues to be the punching bag of crypto – but the chart is finally showing signs of life.
We’ve got clear bullish divergence on the daily RSI. While price made a lower low, RSI made a higher low – hinting at momentum shifting beneath the surface. Volume also ticked up as ETH pushed higher, adding a bit of confirmation.
Zoom out, and it’s even more compelling: ETH is historically oversold on the weekly chart (not shown here). This signal has triggered some major reversals in the past. Yes, it’s failed before – especially on ETH – but this setup is one of the more reliable ones across markets.
I know I’m a glutton for punishment posting ETH charts while it’s still limping around the floor, but that’s usually where opportunity likes to hide. We found the bottom in the newsletter 9 days ago. Now we need follow through.
Solana is putting on a clinic in technical structure.
The recent move through $147 wasn’t just a breakout - it was the first higher high since the downtrend began back in January. That’s a major shift in character. So far, we’ve also seen a classic break and retest of that level, which is now acting as support.
Price sliced through descending resistance, flipped the 50-day moving average, and hasn’t looked back. Volume backed the breakout, and while the 200 MA still sits overhead, SOL is showing serious strength.
We called this one at the breakout - and so far, it’s following the script perfectly.
Wall Street’s Relief Rally Gains Steam
Wall Street’s rebound looked set to continue Wednesday as investors welcomed signs that some of the most destabilizing tensions in recent weeks – from the Fed to China – may be easing. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.1%, building on the biggest equity gains in two weeks, after President Trump dialed back threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and suggested he may soften his stance on China tariffs.
Tesla rallied about 6% premarket after Elon Musk pledged to refocus on the company and reduce his work with the government. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbed 2%, led by a surge in SAP shares after strong earnings.
Treasuries rallied, pushing the 10-year yield down five basis points to 4.35%, and Bitcoin surged past $90,000. Gold, which has recently hit record highs, fell as haven demand eased. The dollar steadied following its sharpest drop in 16 months.
Trump clarified late Tuesday that he has “no intention” of removing Powell, despite earlier social media posts to the contrary. His remarks, along with assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that US-China tensions could ease, helped spark the relief rally.
Still, skepticism remains. Strategists warned that while the tone may have improved, Trump’s history of abrupt shifts leaves investors wary of whiplash. Meanwhile, Trump hinted that final tariffs on China wouldn’t come close to the 145% ceiling that had been floated, further soothing market nerves.
With earnings season in full swing, SAP posted its biggest rally in six years after beating estimates, while Reckitt Benckiser slipped on weak sales. Despite Wednesday’s optimism, analysts say the long-term path remains uncertain – and global markets remain on edge over policy volatility.
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 2.1% as of 5:31 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.7%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1437
The British pound was little changed at $1.3334
The Japanese yen was little changed at 141.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 3.3% to $94,221.78
Ether rose 5.8% to $1,795.21
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.34%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.48%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $64.66 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,333.36 an ounce
When Is Altcoin Season?
This chart displays the 90-day performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens. Bitcoin is shown in black as the baseline, while all other coins appear in orange. As you can see, most bars fall below Bitcoin’s, signaling that the majority of altcoins have underperformed relative to BTC over the past three months.
According to the metric detailed below the chart, it’s officially considered “Altcoin Season” only when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin during the same timeframe. Clearly, that’s not happening right now — so we’re not in Altcoin Season.
Here’s the more common (and intuitive) visual that analysts tend to follow:
We are still nowhere close to altcoin season.
Trump Is Officially Planning To Launch Crypto ETFs
One month ago, I reported that Trump Media – the parent company of Truth Social – had signed a non-binding agreement with Crypto.com to launch crypto ETFs under the Truth.Fi brand. That agreement has now been finalized. Crypto.com will handle the backend infrastructure for these ETFs, which are set to include assets ranging from Bitcoin and Cronos to a mix of altcoins with a “Made in America” theme.
As a quick refresher, I covered the controversy surrounding this partnership in newsletter #1165, including concerns about Crypto.com’s motivations and how the ETF structure might benefit its native token, CRO. Just before this ETF initiative, Cronos – a subsidiary of Crypto.com – reissued 70 billion CRO tokens into a Cronos Strategic Reserve escrow wallet. The stated goal? According to Cronos: “connecting CRO to the institutional liquidity pools through Cronos ETFs.” That’s where Trump’s team enters the picture.
It’s a tangled setup, but here’s the gist: Crypto.com and its subsidiary appear to be launching and promoting an ETF tied to a token that just saw 70 billion units brought back into circulation – and the President of the United States is somehow involved.
It’s… odd.
Oregon Attorney General Sues Coinbase
Out of nowhere, Oregon’s Attorney General and Department of Justice appear to have decided that the Biden-era regulatory approach was more their speed – and that crypto companies should be sued into near extinction. On April 18, Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, alleging the exchange violated state securities laws by offering digital assets like XRP, which the AG claims are unregistered securities.
This move is part of a broader effort by the Oregon DOJ to fill what they see as an enforcement vacuum left by the federal government – particularly under the Trump administration. Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, responded publicly with strong criticism of the lawsuit, while Paradigm’s VP of regulatory affairs, Justin Slaughter, flagged the sweeping nature of the complaint. It targets a long list of tokens, including AAVE, ADA, AMP, ATOM, AVAX, EOS, FIL, LINK, MATIC, NEAR, SOL, and UNI – just to name a few.
Circle Announces Circle Payments Network (CPN)
With new regulators in charge, I expect we’ll start seeing more stories like this – where crypto companies increasingly intersect with traditional banking.
Circle has launched the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a system designed to modernize and streamline cross-border payments for financial institutions. By leveraging regulated stablecoins like USDC and EURC, CPN enables banks, payment providers, and digital wallets to settle global transactions in real time – offering a faster, more transparent, and cost-effective alternative to the legacy system, which often takes over a day and comes with hefty fees.
“Since our founding, Circle's vision has been to make moving money as simple and efficient as sending an email. CPN is a significant step in making that vision a reality for businesses worldwide.” Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Circle
“Circle’s compliance-first approach to building products like CPN is a game changer for how money moves across borders, and we are pleased to build on our partnership and offer them our global expertise to support the success of CPN.” Michael Spiegel, Global Head of Transaction Banking at Standard Chartered Bank
Is Bitcoin Officially BREAKING OUT? $100K Ahead?
Joining me today are my friends from Arch Public, Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway, to give an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio and break down the historic move Bitcoin is about to make!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.